The 2016 New Hampshire Primary Results

Tweet of the Night

There is no sugarcoating the results in NH: the economically illiterate economic nationalists won. But 2/3 NH GOP voters voted not-Trump.

— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) February 10, 2016

An exchange:

Half of NH decided that immigrants are the cause of all of America's problems, the other half decided it's capitalism. Lovely.

— David Freddoso (@freddoso) February 10, 2016

@freddoso @LizMair It's more the economic nationalists won the night.

— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) February 10, 2016

Moving on:

In Hillary Clinton's NH concession speech, she still managed to lash out against the vast right-wing conspiracy & free political expression.

— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) February 10, 2016

Bernie Sanders is still preaching the myth that money buys elections. Never mind the fact that Perot and Romney lost the Presidency.

— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) February 10, 2016

Listening to Bernie Sander's stump speech,it's amazing how he tries to convince people that the oligarchy allowed this tax/regulatory system

— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) February 10, 2016

Bernie Sanders promotes a more insidious corruption, one which rationalizes entitlement to the property of others and rots self-reliance.

— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) February 10, 2016

Chris Christie clinched 6th place, has no support in upcoming states & will not qualify for next debate. Do I hear the fat man singing?

— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) February 10, 2016

Okay, I'm a bit narcissistic here: I had to check the impressions/eyeball pairs on tonight's tweets, and easily my most read tweet of the night was the reply tweet, which has totaled so far about 400 impressions, while my earlier more comprehensive tweet has a tenth of that. My runner up tweet is the last one with a well-deserved shot at Christie.

Just a tip here: Google does a very good job of featuring things like election results and sports results at the top of search result. (I occasionally need to tweak queries), but the following toggle-switch (tabbed) figure appeared in response to my query: "NH primary 2016 results" I did switch on Fox News coverage (mostly to pick up candidate post-election remarks), but I noticed that the AP figures often refreshed faster online.

New Hampshire primary

Last updated Feb 9, 2016 at 11:46 PM ET

REPUBLICAN

DEMOCRATIC

Feb 923 delegates

80% reporting	Delegates	Vote %
Trump (won)	10	34.5%
Kasich	3	16.4%
Cruz	2	11.5%
Bush	2	11.2%
Rubio	0	10.5%
Christie	0	7.6%
Fiorina	0	4.2%
Carson	0	2.3%
Paul	0	0.7%
Huckabee	0	0.1%
Gilmore	0	0.1%
Santorum	0	0.1%
Pataki	0	0.0%
Graham	0	0.0%
Jindal	0	0.0%

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Source: AP

Feedback

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More presidential primaries

I'm probably not going to stay up all night to get final/near-final results for places 3, 4, and 5, but those places have held over at least the last 40% of reported results: I've seen Rubio go from just under 10% to the current 10.5%, but he hasn't broken within 0.6 points of Bush. Bush slightly led Cruz in the early numbers but more recently he hasn't been able to crack within 0.3 points of Cruz. It, of course, depends where the remaining 12% of the vote outstanding are; it's possible but unlikely that has a major clump of Bush or Rubio .

Trump did lap the fragmented opposition; he's had bigger poll leads, but he did a little better than some recent polls which had him at 29-31%. The big loser of the night is clearly Marco Rubio whose robotic debate performance over the weekend seriously damaged his opportunity to place and frittered away his momentum to coalesce the anti-Trump vote. At least half of recent polls had him at second or tied at second. The good news is that Rubio's mistake is fixable--he'll only lose third by a point or so; he should place in SC and FL, and he gets a debate do-over this Saturday in SC, but he needs to win somewhere, and I don't see where at this point in time until the governors drop out.

While Christie did manage to hurt Rubio in the last debate, he did not place, and he's not a factor over the next several primaries and has no path forward. He left with a message that he's returning to NJ to reevaluate his campaign, and I expect him to announce over the next couple of days his withdrawal. (It's not because I have contacts in the campaign; it's just an inference, one I've been repeatedly publishing over the past week or so in the daily posts.)  I expect him to endorse either Kasich or Bush; I'm leaning that it'll be Kasich given their complimentary remarks over the last debate, although his dislike for Rubio could have him side with Bush who is also better financed than Kasich.

There had been 2-3 polls that showed Kasich in second, so his finish wasn't a surprise, but a necessary one for a viable path forward. Still, going into tonight he's only had a 2% share in SC and slightly better in FL. He should do better, but I don't see him placing, unless any of the top 3 crash and burn in the interim.

Cruz' third-place showing is better than expected in a state where conservatives don't do that well. He's firmed up his standing in the race and is leading in TX and AR.  Moreover, some polls show him doing better than Rubio in a 2-way against Trump.  Cruz holds second in SC and FL and I think the finish tonight helps him.

Bush gets a symbolic win against Rubio but less than 1 point and he spent a hell of a lot of money to do it. Still, he finished out of third by less than 1% . He's got a shot of placing third in SC or FL, but I don't see where he wins, and a loss in his home state would harm his credibility. I think without his war chest, he's done. I think a good finish in SC or FL is necessary to sustain the campaign, but right now his campaign is on life support.

I don't know how Carson or Fiorina go on from here. In fact, there's a statement from Carson out there that he would be interested in being Trump's running mate. When you're running for Veep, you are conceding the race de facto.