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Monday, February 1, 2016

Miscellany: 2/01/16 The Iowa Caucuses

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A great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do.
Walter Bagehot

Earlier One-Off Post: The Seventh GOP 2016 Presidential Debate

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The Iowa Caucuses

Originally I thought of writing a one-off post on the caucuses but decided to merge it in my daily post. As I write, roughly at 2:30 AM, 99% of the vote is in, and Cruz, who led all evening, has won by an unexpected 3.4% at just under 28%; Cruz had lost a long string of recent polls, including some reported today in RCP. I wrote a number of relevant tweets above, but probably the most surprising is that most pundits thought a heavy turnout helped Trump. Make no mistake: Trump won his fair share of new voters, but the Cruz grassroots game got the job done.

Let's be clear: Trump has a huge lead in NH and Cruz, despite Iowa, has an uphill battle. A primary is more difficult,and conservatives don't run as well in New England. I do think Cruz and close third-place Rubio will get some lift in the polls. Not sure yet, but it's possible that Rubio peels off some Kasich, Christie, and Bush support. I think Trump wins but it will be tighter than recent polls indicate. I think the real story in NH is who finishes second and third. I think Cruz and Rubio need to sustain their momentum. Obviously if the governors fail, it's difficult to see how they get through Super Tuesday. I think Christie is most vulnerable; his message is that he can win blue or purple states like NJ. I don't see him able to survive an out-of-the-money finish. I still think Bush stays through Florida, but a weak finish there basically eliminates him.

For Trump, he can try to manipulate opinions by suggesting Iowa was never winnable months back, but be clear: he won a long string of poll wins going into the contest. More importantly, he had built this "winning" talking point, and his invincibility has now been dashed. He looked on the way to run the table and a sweep would have probably made SC and FL, where he now has leads, inevitable. So I don't think his shock and awe campaign is now viable; Cruz is really eying Super Tuesday, including his home state of TX; he wants to at least finish in the money until then.

At last glance, Clinton had a 0.3% lead over Sanders with 99% of the vote. It all depends where those votes are, but she has been clinging to a similar lead since at least 84% of the vote, and I think Sanders has run out of territory to score. This lessens the impact of a two-loss start, but let's be clear: like Trump, she had been leading in a string of polls going into the caucuses and Sanders for all practical purposes tied her in Iowa. Clinton will likely sweep through Super Tuesday, but I think if she had lost Iowa, it could have given Sanders momentum and potential upsets through Super Tuesday.

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Courtesy of Henry Payne via Townhall
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Vocalists

Juice Newton, "Heart of the Night". There are a couple of hits left in this series; we'll start Jim Croce later this week.

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