Analytics

Sunday, February 28, 2021

Post #5041 M: Woods on Michigan Lockdown vs Restaurant;

 Quote of the Day

Talent works, genius creates. 
Robert A. Schumann  

Political Humor

Woods on Michigan Lockdown vs Restaurant

Ron Paul on Texas, COVID-19 Policy, and the Deep Freeze

Choose Life

Political Cartoon

Courtesy of Steve Kelley via Townhall

Musical Interlude: #1 Hits of 1970

Neil Diamond, "Cracklin' Rosie"

Post #5040 J

Shutdown Diary

I haven't flown since the start of the pandemic, but a recent American Airlines email  got me to wonder if something had changed for domestic flights. A brief Google search took me to the Denver airport featuring COVID-19 testing in roughly the $100-200 range, which rapid results testing in the latter range. I believe there are some home testing (saliva sampling) kits which may be accepted. As far as I can tell, mandatory testing is mostly in play for international flights. And apparently you can qualify for expedited security if you can document recent negative test results, although it seems part of the regimen includes a temperature check. But for now, most domestic travel is by the honor system, e.g., voluntary quarantine after trqvel or completing symptom checklists. Obviously some people lie, like that United passenger to LA who fell ill during the flight and died of COVID-19  complications.

 In discussing the latest weekly statistics below: I note that the positivity rate has fallen below 5%. (I don't know if they've been tracking it, but I've been closely following it over the past few journal posts.) I'm not saying 5% is a magic number, but it's been a baseline I've been informally using to judge the various waves of the pandemic. The improving hospital utilization rates are definitely a step in the right direction, given full/over capacity would imply a risk of higher mortality.

So how do we explain the declines of the current wave, which seems obviously has peaked? Well, obviously it's not vaccination because only small percentage of  vaccinated people (although no doubt it's a welcome development towards the criterion of herd immunity, as in the recent emergency waiver for a third vaccine FDA emergency approval for Johnson & Johnson's vaccine, although Oxford/AstraZeneca's vaccine is still stuck at the FDA, yet approved elsewhere (notably Europe).) And it's not a miracle due to the familiar regimen of masks, social distancing and personal hygiene; let me be clear: these are good practical steps that can mitigate  the risks of infection. The issue I have has to do with unrealistic expectations. But if their implementation (up to 85% or so in some studies I've seen) didn't prevent the second or third waves, they certainly can't be attributed for falling rates. At best, they might mitigate acceleration and peak of the wave.

I'm not an epidemiologist. But here are some some insights:  While certainly hospitals have learned much in treating COVID-19, recent lower mortality may have more to do with proportionately higher infections among younger/lower-risk people and improved protection of older/higher-risk individuals. Sometimes viruses can respond to changing weather conditions like temperature and humidity. For instance, in cold weather people spend more time indoors where shed microbes, not filtered, can accumulate more densely and put others at increased risk for infection.  Acquired or natural immunity and a variation of herd immunity may also be at play. The virus may never truly go away and may mutate, and we don't know the nature and extent of any acquired immunity (although reinfection, which can happen, is relatively uncommon for COVID-19 recovered victims, from the studies to date).

The latest stats from  WashPo

In the past week in the U.S....
New daily reported cases fell 1.3% 
New daily reported deaths fell 0.8% 
Covid-related hospitalizations fell 13.6% 
Among reported tests, the positivity rate was 4.7%.

The number of tests reported rose 1.2%  from the previous week.
Since Dec. 14, more than 72,806,000 doses of a covid-19 vaccine have been administered in the U.S.

More than 23,698,000 people have completed vaccination, or about 7.14% of the population. 

Potpourri

It's amusing how even an MIS PhD has to put up with life's little problems in computing. For example, I opened up my email software which, recently updated, apparently had the unintended effect of wiping our of my profile (it didn't show any email or a single email account). Now of course, I could manually reconfigure my profile (it didn't lose my email folders, which are stored separately) with a few minutes of busy work, but as familiar readers know, the DBA in me maintains backups; I copied and pasted backup profile folder files, and presto, the email client software was soon back to normal.

But we are now in an era of disposable computers. I have a small chromebook (think of it as a cloud-based computer) which I use occasionally for working, e.g., on my blog. I haven't owned it long--maybe a year or two back, only to find Google left me a nasty little surprise note after its latest update of the operating system, that this would be its last OS update of my chromebook. The "solution"? Buy a new model. Oh, I don't think so. I did an Internet search and there seems to be a hardware/software workaround, but to be honest it may be functional for some time with the current setup.

But I had bought an inexpensive Lenovo desktop about 9 years back, more as a backup PC to my HP notebook whose hard drive was on its last legs. I had mover helpers with my move to WV, where I had rented a furnished apartment, so I had most of my stuff put in storage, and my work schedule made it so I couldn't be there for the unloading of the truck. As a former professor I had like 40 book boxes. I had no idea where they put the desktop, and I didn't want to spend hours reorganizing my storage unit to find it. Long story short, on my next move (to SC) I made sure the movers put it into my apartment. And whether it was the cold storage room in WV, it was dead for all practical purposes. So I bought another laptop as a backup. As some point, I coaxed the Lenovo back to life.

I've continued using it on and off as a backup (most recently, playing the "White Christmas" DVD). I had just updated Windows patching et al. recently, only to find out a few days ago it wasn't powering up. Not sure why; maybe the power supply, power cord, a broken power switch, the port interface, whatever. I may tinker with it as time permits. But how much good money to throw after bad in getting an old PC repaired,

It turns out you can buy a new Dell, with 8 GM RAM, 1 TB of storage, speedy CPU, etc., for under $400, plus sales tax. The only things you need to buy are a monitor and speakers, and the ones I had bought for the Lenovo worked just fine. I think my first PC clone I bought while at UWM cost me around $2800, and its functionality is just a fraction of the Dell's capabilities. In fact, I wrote this whole segment on the Dell.

Well, my readership on Twitter and the blog are at months' lows. The blog will likely be a third below last month's pageviews. Of course, February is the shortest month, but part of it is  lower output. I haven't been as inspired; in part, Trump's tweets are no longer there to stir people up.

I guess I don't make an impression on a lot of people. I recently scheduled an 18-month service appointment on my new(er) car, and I was getting lots of text and email reminders about my appointment. Fortunately they were open on Presidents' Day. Everything went okay, but they reset my display, so I'm having to go to the owner's guide to figure how to revert it (right now the odometer only shows when I turn the ignition off). They're surprised by my low mileage, but, dude, there's a pandemic, I telework, and I barely drive for groceries, medical appointments, and (say) occasional trips to the barber shop. So anyway, one or 2 days later, I get more texts and emails from the dealership: "We're sorry you missed your appointment; would you like to reschedule?" Dude, you serviced my car; how do you not remember? You gave me paperwork and everything?  Apparently I didn't make a good impression or any impression...

Entertainment

 Well, I'm on no one's key demographic when it comes to TV, but a couple of nationally telecast series are grabbing my attention. No, not American Idol, nearly a generation after its debut on Fox; I haven't watched since the Fox cancellation and its resurrection on ABC, and as I've tweeted, I'm not happy that they are exploiting the troubled teen Claudia Conway, daughter of famously politically split parents, her mother, the campaign manager  during Trump's first election, and Never Teumper father.

"Mr. Mayor" I find probably the best new comedy series in years, as Ted Danson, former Cheers lead womanizing bar owner, now plays the accidental mayor of Los Angeles with his headstrong  teen daughter, Holly Hunter as his politically-savvy (a little too full of herself) deputy Arpi, and the rest of the cast. Whether it's a spoof of ubiquitous sexual harassment training, the mayor preparing to throw out the ceremonial first pitch of the baseball game,  Food Truck day, etc., it has avoided polarizing political preaching and gently pokes fun at politicians. Great cast. Holly as Arpi shines; she is ultra-competitive, and this episode saw her repeatedly losing to her colleagues in various games/contexts, seriously messing with her head. As long as the deft writing continues, I'll be watching.

The new CW series "Superman and Lois"  (see the premiere episode here) is an intriguing twist on the innumerable TV series and movies; Clark Kent has married his love interest Lois Lane (who knows he's Superman) and they are middle-aged parents to teenage twin sons, one who has inherited some of his powers. I don't want to give away the whole plot, but Clark comes out of the phone booth, so to speak, to his unsuspecting sons who think of him as a recently laid-off journalist. 

In WWE  the most interesting development was the Miz cashing in his reinstated Money in the Bank championship contract after McIntyre's grueling defense of his WWE championship belt at Elimination Chamber and Bobby Lashley's brutal post-match attack.  The booking is curious because heel Miz is now the target of heel Lashley. I don't see Miz surviving their title clash next Monday. Lashley winning the belt sets up a dream match with Lesnar. I could see WWE doing a triple threat match (with McIntyre and Miz) after Lashley wins the belt with Lesnar confronting Lashley during/after the match.

Edge will confront Reigns, which was obvious given Edge's' babyface status. As for the female titles, somewhat muddled. they had booked Charlotte Flair's return to pair with former rival/current RAW champ Asuka  to briefly take the women's tag titles. Now this sets up the formula storyline of tag team  split-ups, in this context, Flair challenging Asuka for her RAW title. Deja vu? Yes. Flair ended Asuka's infamous win streak in a past Wrestlemania.  It also looks  like face Bianca meeting face Sasha Banks.I was hoping for a return of new mother Becky Lynch and/or Ronda Rousey. 

Saturday, February 27, 2021

Post #5039 M: Woods on the Disastrous $15/Hour Wage; The Exodus of California Businesses; Kibbe and Horton on the War on Terror

 Quote of the Day

Virtue means doing the right thing,
in relation to the right person, 
at the right time, 
to the right extent, 
in the right manner, 
and for the right purpose. 
Thus, to give money away is quite a simple task, 
but for the act to be virtuous, 
the donor must give to the right person, 
for the right purpose, 
in the right amount, 
in the right manner, 
and at the right time.
Aristotle 

Woods on the Disastrous $15/Hour Wage

I recently posted on this topic. This podcast is consistent with my discussion.

The Exodus of California Businesses

Kibbe and Horton on the War on Terror

Choose Life

Political Cartoon

Courtesy of Gary Varvel via Townhall

Musical Interlude: #1 Hits of 1970 

Diana Ross, "Ain't No Mountain High Enough"

Friday, February 26, 2021

Post #5038 M: McClanahan on the Tenth Amendment; Stossel on Saving Rhinos; Reason Mocks the GameStop Hearing

 Quote of the Day

I was gratified to be able to answer promptly. 
I said I don't know.
Mark Twain 

McClanahan on the Tenth Amendment

Stossel on Saving Rhinos

Reason Mocks the GameStop Hearing

Choose Life

Political Cartoon

Courtesy of AF Branco via Townhall

Musical Interlude: #1 Hits of 1970

Edwin Starr, "War"

Thursday, February 25, 2021

Post #5037 M: Are Conservatives More Extremist?; Unconstitutional Fines; Sowell: A Politically Incorrect History of Slavery

 Quote of the Day

I can think of nothing less pleasurable
than a life devoted to pleasure.
John D. Rockefeller

Are Conservatives More Extremist?

Unconstitutional Fines

Sowell: A Politically Incorrect History of Slavery

Choose Life

Musical Interlude: #1 Hits of  1970

Bread, "Make It With You"

Post #5036 Rant of the Day: The Biden COVID-19 Stimulus Bill and the Minimum Wage

 First of all, I have to stop watching CNN leftist propaganda early in the morning. (I actually multi-task most of the time; I 'll usually be  working in the morning or blogging in the evening, just like people might listen to music on the job. CNN had this graphic, for instance, pointing out Republicans oppose Biden's $1.9 T while "polls" suggest 70% of Americans support it. These polls are so phony. Context  is everything. Suppose I point out to poll takers that the US is paying hundreds of billions of dollars each year in interest to service a $28T national debt: Taxpayer money is going to China and other foreign countries loaning their money to the Treasury, not to mention rich people. What if I tell you historically nations which spend money they don't have pay a price in terms of inflation, an implicit tax which disparately affects lower-income people? The whole illusion here is the duped poll participants are voting for a free lunch. Santa Claus is very popular--until January's credit card bills hit your mailbox or email inbox.

I disagree with almost every aspect of the Biden spending proposal, except  for maybe COVID-19 testing and vaccines (and I sill think the free market could do that faster, better, and cheaper). I know I would be willing to pay a fair price for a vaccine versus a "free" vaccine, where the supply is being controlled by an incompetent, unresponsive government bureaucracy. The fact is the 3 vaccines could have been released weeks before they were, and how many more people lost their lives needlessly?

A lot of the bill is on usual Democrat spending priorities as usual; we've this this pattern time after time. A large pot of the bill is going for local/state bailouts. I heard a good Cato Institute podcast on this while working today by Chris Edwards (see here for his written comments).. While there are some exceptions, most cities/states overall hit their overall revenue goals, with only some  adverse effects, e.g., softer sales tax collections. Lincicome provides a more comprehensive view of Biden's $1.9T folly here.

The minimum wage is a mandate, not a government-funded program like an earned income credit. Now there is no doubt that Draconian local pandemic business restriction have had a disparate effect on lower income workers, like restaurant workers, but increasing wage costs on struggling businesses doesn't assure lower-income people will make more money; employers may respond by cutting jobs and/or hours. A large plurality of minimum-wage worker (at last check, maybe less than 5% of overall workers) are household dependents, e.g., spouses or children, and job experience is a fungible benefit which typically results in higher-paying employment in the long term. 

When I have faced recessions, I could offer to work for less money. Let me give an actual example from my prior career as an MIS professor. Providence College offered me a campus visit (an expenses-paid academic job interview where you usually make a research presentation). They told me going into the interview the maximum the job would pay was $35K. (I was paid in the 40's during my prior 5 years at state universities.) [I have at least 2 cousins who earned their degrees at Providence College.] I still didn't get the offer. But the point is, I was willing to make my candidacy more appealing to accommodate their budgets. [On a side note, I, as a Catholic, earned my bachelor's at OLLU, a Catholic college. I went on 2 other campus visits to Catholic colleges and also negotiated with a fourth, which waived a campus visit. Not one offer from any of them. Not sure why, although I suspect ISU blackballed me with the last (the chair mentioned she had met married ISU professors I knew during my year as a visiting professor at a conference).]

If you are struggling to find a job paying $7.25/hour, you sure the hell won't find one paying $15/hour. You face more competitors willing to work for more money. As I mentioned in an earlier tweet to an economically illiterate "progressive" troll, if Amazon decided to double its prices for TVs overnight, I am not likely to buy a TV. This is Economics 101. Maybe Big Labor wants to protect its members from competition in the market; it's certainly not in the interest of lower-paid workers. A minimum wage law is fundamentally immoral. This is not to say we oppose the concept of higher wages, just the method of getting there. We think the free market provides the best way of getting there. One of my favorite economists and bloggers explains below debunks the $15/hour argument. 


Wednesday, February 24, 2021

Post #5035 M: Remy Parodies Cruz Going to Mexico; McClanahan on Thomas' Dissent; Big Tech and Censorship

 Quote of the Day

Keep away from people who belittle your ambitions. 
Small people always do that, 
 but the really great, make you feel that you too can become great.
Mark Twain

Remy Parodies Cruz Going to Mexico

McClanahan on Thomas' Dissent

Big Tech and Censorship

Choose Life

 

Poliical Cartoon

Courtesy of Michael Ramirez via Townhall

Musical Interlude: #1 Hits of 1970

The Carpenters, "Close To You"

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Post #5034 M: National Debt: Who Cares?; Victims of the Eviction Moratorium'; McClanahan on the Incorporation Doctrine

 Quote of the Day

Let no one delay the study of philosophy when young 
nor weary of it when old. 
Epicurus  

National Debt: Who Cares?

Victims of the Eviction Moratorium

The blonde interviewee/advocate is so economically illiterate and morally corrupt that I almost threw something at my monitor.

McClanahan on the Incorporation Doctrine

Choose Life


Musical Interlude: #1 Hits of 1970

Three Dog Night, "Mama Told Me Not To Come"

Monday, February 22, 2021

Post #5033 M: McClanahan on Biden, the Mainstream Media and MarioKart; Woods/Malice on the Depression and New Deal; Ron Paul on COVID-19 500K

 Quote of the Day

Aim at the sun and you may not reach it; 
but your arrow will fly far higher than if 
you had aimed at an object on a level with yourself.
F. Hawes  

McClanahan on Biden, the Mainstream Media and MarioKart

Woods/Malice on the Depression and New Deal

Ron Paul on COVID-19 500K

Choose Life

Political Cartoon

Courtesy of Tom Stiglich via Townhall

Musical Interlude: #1 Hits of 1970

The Jackson 5, "The Love You Save"

Sunday, February 21, 2021

Post #5032 M: Tom Woods on the Iran Nuclear Program; DiLorenzo on the Lincoln Problem

 Quote of the Day

It only stands to reason that where there's sacrifice, 
there's someone collecting the sacrificial offerings. 
Where there's service, 
there is someone being served. 
The man who speaks to you of sacrifice is speaking of slaves and masters, 
and intends to be the master.
Ayn Rand  

Political Humor

Tom Woods on the Iran Nuclear Program

DiLorenzo on the Lincoln Problem


Choose Life

Political Cartoon

Courtesy of Michael Ramirez via Townhall

Musical Interlude: #1 Hits of 1970 

The Beatles, "For You Blue" (b-side of The Long and Winding Road)

 

Post #5031 Rant of the Day: Face Mask, Seat Belts, and Constitutionality

 The general context for this essay was yet another Twitter trend bashing Rand Paul. Now I've had my differences with Rand Paul, particularly his defense of Trump during the two impeachment trials, but I feel he is more principled and on the right side of most public policy issues. The Rand Derangement Syndrome is very real, and I have on occasion sharply rebuked partisan trolls on Twitter, saying things like the neighbor who attacked Rand (eventually resulting in partial loss of Rand's lung) didn't go far enough.

I'm not sure what led to the latest bashing of Rand Paul but I do know Sherrod Brown (D-OH) went after him for not wearing a mask in session several days back. The ignorant asshole wrote this: "In a packed Senate chamber with stenographers and colleagues just feet away from him, @RandPaul refuses to put on a mask - and puts the health of everyone around him at risk." First of all, Rand Paul doesn't have COVID; he's healthy. There is no risk from a healthy person who doesn't wear a mask. If Sherrod Brown had any knowledge about COVID, he would know, at most,  most face masks protect little more than protecting oneself from virus-laden respiratory splatter from those infected. Now you could argue it's in Rand Paul's best interests to protect himself against the splatter from others, but what Brown is saying is pure nonsense. Cloth masks have next to no defense against microbe aerosols; that's the reason most hospitals were worried about a possible run on N95 respirators by the public, leaving them with no masks for health professionals treating COVID patients. If conventional cloth/other masks were equally effective, why didn't hospitals simply use the more available, cheaper masks?  So even if Rand Paul had COVID, the masks that he and Brown wore wouldn't protect  Brown from those aerosols if he was near or downwind from Paul.  Brown has an amateurish, oversimplistic understanding of masks, their purpose, and limitations. It really shouldn't matter to Brown whether Paul was wearing a mask if presumably Brown wasn't prohibited from wearing a mask just in case a contagious Paul was coughing or sneezing on him.

This isn't the first time this kind of pseudo-scientific rubbish. Paul, around 11 months back, became perhaps the first major politician diagnosed with COVID-19. He went swimming in a Congressional facility before getting test results; he wasn't symptomatic. He promptly went into quarantine upon hearing the news. He explained he had taken the test because he does a lot of traveling and hence could have been exposed and took the test proactively. But other politicians were obsessed that he put everyone who uses the pool at risk. (That whole hand washing or social distancing protocol just doesn't connect with these people.) I am unaware of a single person who has been infected by Rand, and the media would have been right on top of that.

Never mind that Rand Paul is a licensed doctor. But the left-fascists dismiss that because it doesn't fit their definition of an expert. Sure, he can prescribe and administer vaccinations, but unless he's published a relevant paper in a peer-reviewed journal, he doesn't have a right to his own opinion.

So here is the Twitter kerffufle:


OK, there's a lot to unpack here (there is a subsequent exchange where the troll Casey called my response bullshit and we threw journal articles at each other). I only saw Casey's tweet not in my notifications but in my Twitter summary page as the top mention of the month. There's a complete misunderstanding of the Constitution by both trolls which I didn't fully address in my responses (because I have only 280 characters per tweet and I didn't want to write a long sequence of tweets, so I'll do it here).

So let's first deal with the British OP. I thought I was clear by context. He's basically saying, "The Capitol is a federal building, Biden made a rule about federal buildings, so I don't see a problem." Neither troll understands my point. The POTUS has no authority over the Capitol; now what the mandate refers to is the departments and agencies that report to the President. One could make the argument that the President has the authority to provide and enforce policies for the health and safety of federal employees, and you could argue that mask compliance serves that end. I don't know the specifics of federal laws governing over government entities, but I would think unless a particular policy is prohibited, the President has broad discretion. There's a separate Constitutional argument, e.g., could the POTUS implement a policy outside the federal arena, e.g., in states or places in general I'll examine below.

But the Capitol is not under POTUS' jurisdiction. The Congress is a separate branch of government. The President cannot enforce his administrative preferences in the Capitol. The broader point is that Congress and POTUS have enumerated powers/responsibilities. For instance, under the 10th Amendment, the states assume health security jurisdiction. They might have the authority to do things like mask mandates, at least in public areas. So I'm specifically focusing on limited powers of the Presidency. In fact, as I have pointed out on the Jan. 6 riot, the Capitol police, although federal employees, really report to Congress, not POTUS.

I can see where the phrasing of my initial reply could be confusing in terms of questioning face masks and constitutionality. I don't have an issue with the policy within the POTUS' jurisdiction. As a  government contractor, I realize I am subject to the agreement with the government, and certain liberties are constrained by the voluntary agreement. In fact, all federal properties I've visited over the past year had mask policies, and I complied. I personally would voluntarily wear a facemask without even a state mandate But the Congress is an independent branch and the POTUS cannot enforce his policies over Congress. The troll's argument "Face masks aren't unconstitutional, nowhere mentions facemasks" clearly shows he's missed the point, and his argument is rubbish. No, you won't find a Constitution reference to facemasks. Granted, I could have been clearer (limited to 280 characters), but I was focused on the Brit thinking the Capitol was under Biden's jurisdiction. I'm making the broad point of enumerated powers, and the troll is seeming to suggest if the Constitution doesn't prohibit it, Congress or the President can do whatever they want. No, laws and executive orders are subject to Constitutional constraints. And to make a technical point, no, Congress doesn't need the President's signature; they can override his veto.

Now let's talk about seat belts. "Progressives" like to talk about "muh  roads" a lot, not to mention seat belt, bike helmet mandates. I might actually write a longer post or book chapter on these memes. I've always worn seat belts but never owned or wore a bike helmet. (I haven't ridden a bike since my last bike was stolen while living in graduate student housing at UH, but I rode a bike all the time as a kid (Mom didn't chauffer us around to ballgames, and I delivered papers all through high school on one)) But I think seat belts are stupid policy. It's one thing for government to protect me from the violence of others and vice versa, but it's another thing to protect me from myself: where do you draw the line? A police state where they monitor your every move? I think several hundred posts back I embedded a video showing what happened (I think in Australia or New Zealand) when power failed at a traffic light at a busy intersection and without a policeman to guide traffic. Did all hell break lose and drivers get into a whole bunch of accidents? Nope. Drivers seemed to approach the intersection more cautiously and took turns crossing the street. 

It's a basic concept we libertarians love to cite all the time: moral hazard. So a  person facing a traffic light might drive more aggressively, say try to beat a  light or think it's safe to proceed to enter the intersection because the light is green. (My baby sister's car was once hit by a driver running a red light.) Mandates are stupid in certain contexts, e.g., driving in an empty lot or on a private or solitary stretch of road. Now keep in mind the context for using a face mask: generally speaking it's a safeguard in the vicinity of infected people if and when you can't maintain prescribed social distancing. It doesn't save you from bioaerosols shed by an infected user. At best it will protect you from respiratory splatter. And you don't really know who's infected, but obviously you should stand clear from someone with respiratory symptoms. One of the concerns I have involves, yes, moral hazard. And I've blogged on this very topic. I'm worried about about false expectations; for one thing, some face masks are more effective than others, they may not be worn effectively (sealed), etc. They don't protect against bioaerosols. Whereas it's possible to get infected from an asymptomatic person, the evidence is mostly anecdotal in nature and less likely without respiratory symptoms. But the idea that a significant percentage of  infected people are asymptomatic is one reason I've consistently pushed for more widespread testing in my blog and tweets.

Another point on mandates and the troll Casey's point that we have seat belt mandates, too, and they are constitutional. Well, maybe under police powers of state constitution. (Not under federal jurisdiction except on federal properties, etc.) But keep in mind masks have impacts on breathing, and some people with respiratory ailments (asthma, etc.) could face health risks wearing masks--and you couldn't necessarily know if, say, Rand Paul, has a respiratory condition. To some people, the cure is worse than the disease.  Breathing is a necessary fact of life the idea that the state has the authority to risk someone's health, even life, is intrinsically unconstitutional. You can argue driving/riding is a potentially risky activity to other people/property and is a privilege, not a right. That's not the same as imposing a face mask on people, particularly without evidence of illness. Now individuals do have a right of self-defense and to wear a mask during the pandemic--I do. 


But let's move to the COVID-19 dispute. I'm pointing out Rand Paul has already been infected, on the record. I know what these "progressives" have been indoctrinated with. Technically, it is possible, but not probable, for Rand Paul to get reinfected, and a reinfected Rand Paul could (but it's not probable) infect others. From the data seen to date, less than 1% of the infected get reinfected (see this Nature article), presumably by acquired immunity. [A troll should know better than to get into an argument with me. My Joplin (saved webpages) COVID-19 notebook at last count had some 114 posts. I am anal-retentive over details; one of my articles was conditionally accepted provided I cut my references in half.] Second, there was an exhaustive Wuhan study post-lockdown  that I've referenced elsewhere where they did an exhaustive study of the contacts of reinfected people and found no evidence of disease propagation.

Now consider excerpts from this government paper (note that antibody tests look for markers of past (in this context, COVID-19) infection vs. current infection (PCR) testing):

The NCI research team, which I was a part of, was led by Lynne Penberthy, M.D., M.P.H., associate director of NCI’s Surveillance Research Program. Working with two health care data analytics companies (HealthVerity and Aetion) and commercial labs (Quest and LabCorp), we obtained serology (antibody) testing results for more than 3 million people, representing more than 50% of the commercial SARS-CoV-2 antibody tests conducted in the United States. Nearly 12% of these tests were antibody positive; most of the remaining tests were negative (less than 1% were inconclusive).

The research team then looked at what fraction of individuals in each group went on to later develop a positive result on a nucleic acid (PCR) test for SARS-CoV-2, which may indicate a new infection. We found that, 90 or more days after the initial antibody test, people who had been antibody-negative had evidence of infection (a positive PCR test) at about 10 times the rate of people who had been antibody-positive.

A complication in interpreting the results of this work is that people who have recovered from a SARS-CoV-2 infection can still shed viral material (RNA) for up to 3 months. These individuals are generally thought to have low risk for passing the virus on to others, even though they may continue to test positive for the virus on a PCR test.

Saturday, February 20, 2021

Post #5030 M: Public Accountability; Abbeville Week in Review; The Unintended Consequences of Biden's Minimum Wage Raise Proposal

 Quote of the Day

My definition of an expert in any field is 
a person who knows enough about what's really going on 
to be scared.
PJ Plauger  

Public Accountability

Abbeville Week in Review

The Unintended Consequences of Biden's Minimum Wage Raise Proposal

Choose Life

Political Cartoon

Courtesy of Chip Bok via Townhall

Musical Interlude: #1 Hits of 1970

The Beatles, "The Long and Winding Road". Several posts back I had mistakenly suggested "Let It Be" was the last top-charting hit for the Beatles. That was wrong; I had misread the chart. It's this song. I'll play the flip side in the next daily post.

Post #5029 Social Media Digest

Facebook

My Navy buddy Bill recently got his first COVID-19 vaccine shot in Florida. Here is a photo of the line in front of him:


One of his Facebook friends posted a personal question, and I adlibbed a response:






Twitter

For a long period recently I had averaged over 1000 impressions/views a day for my tweets. That's nothing for someone who has hundreds of thousands of followers (like the celebrity below), but I still have fewer than 10 on the current/new(er) account.  I haven't had a "viral Tweet", my definition for a 1K impression tweet, for a few weeks now  (My top tweet is like 400+ impressions.) I do write several tweets without regard to trending topics, but one of the best ways to build an audience is by posting on trending topics. And so I've been in a statistics slump over the last few weeks. And part of it has to do with the nature and extent of trends, most of which I haven't been interested in.

Probably the most famous celebrity to flame me on Twitter. (I had posted a tweet supporting COVID policy protesters on the Left Coast.) She's a well-known actress, e.g., played the lead on the multi-season show "Medium". It appears to be from her legit account.