Analytics

Saturday, January 23, 2016

The Sixth GOP 2016 Presidential Debate

This debate was originally held in SC on 1/14/16. As I explained in a miscellany post at the time, I was protesting the exclusion of Rand Paul from the main stage and was deferring publication of my appraisal. I had heard a few soundbites and read a few posts about certain exchanges before recently reviewing the debate in its entirety. I have not looked at other scorecards in print, so this is basically a fresh perspective.

Everybody said some things I don't agree with, and there was a point I wanted to throw my notebook in the air and say a pox on all their houses. (The Dems are even worse.) Surprisingly, I think most of the competitors had one of their better nights in terms of past debate performances; I have been one of Trump's harshest critics, but he did sound principled on the Second Amendment, for once. There were some interesting exchanges during the debate, particularly, Cruz vs. Trump on Cruz' natural born eligibility, and Cruz vs. Rubio on taxes.

I'll give my detailed rank order below, but Cruz was easily the best debater on the stage, and no regular reader would be surprised that Trump, once again, came in dead last. For the most part, Trump was out of the mix and irrelevant to the debate (beyond direct questions from the moderators). If and when he responded, it was one political soundbite after another that I've heard a hundred times, about our "stupid" trade negotiators, etc.

Analysis is difficult, because questions were generally asked on an individual basis and other debaters did not get a chance to discuss unless the question or response identified them. I also have pro-liberty views on the economy, civil liberties, immigration, and a far more restrained policy on defense and foreign affairs.

Just a few detailed notes. First, I've discussed the Cruz natural born citizenship status several times in tweets, guest post comments, and other comments. Cruz was a citizen at birth, despite being born in Canada, because his US-born Mom had spent most of her life as a US resident, was in her 30's at Ted's birth, including 10 yrs. of US residency, at least 5 of which are after the age of 14. Both British and US law in the 18th century used the term natural born in contrast to naturalization and did not require residency at birth--this was a specific point of the very first naturalization act, i.e., that American babies born elsewhere would be considered as natural born. It was amusing to see Trump respond awkwardly when Cruz brought up Trump's Scottish-born mother. Trump was trying to say the Cruz citizenship is an open legal question, but, and I am not a lawyer and know that courts can surprise even experienced lawyers, this is as close as you can get to a slam dunk. What was interesting was to see Trump, completely caught off-guard when Cruz suggested under some legal theories, Trump would not qualify because his mother was foreign-born. Trump quickly brushed that off under his own birthright citizenship, but I seem to recall that he rejects the 14th amendment argument for so-called anchor babies.

There was an interesting discussion on tax policy. I've called repeatedly for a territorial vs. worldwide  taxation regimen; it looks at least on a couple of tax plans (Christie and Cruz) try to take a bite of repatriated dollars, Christie's dedicated infrastruction building fund. I even have an issue with that: I believe that infrastructure should be funded by user fees, and I want to see the process largely privatized. (I see the status quo as too political, corrupt, and noncompetitive.)  There was an interesting clash between Rubio and Cruz on Cruz' radically novel tax plan. Let me just say that Rubio's attack was disingenuous, deliberately designed to run out the clock on Cruz' limited time to respond. Cruz combines a low, flat income tax with a variation of a VAT/consumption tax called a business transfer tax. Many taxes (e.g., corporate income tax, inheritance and payroll taxes) would be eliminated, and individuals would find their after-tax incomes higher. The shift to a more of a consumption tax is more balanced and adds more incentive to save and invest; the lower/flatter income tax eliminates some of the obvious perverse incentives in progressive rate structures.

There was a lot of groupthink on international meddling and a deteriorating military with obsolete war machines, not enough pushback to an unfettered NSA without Rand Paul present. There seemed to be groupthink against Syrian refugees, which I find unconscionable. Jeb Bush pushed back against Trump's comprehensive Muslim entry ban. There was an unholy alliance between Trump and Kasich on "fair" vs. free trade. I did see Jeb Bush counter with more of a pro-consumer perspective.

Here is my rank order, from highest to lowest, of debate performers:

  • Ted Cruz
  • Jeb Bush
  • Chris Christie
  • John Kasich
  • Marco Rubio
  • Ben Carson
  • Donald Trump