Analytics

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Miscellany: 1/10/16

Quote of the Day
That’s been one of my mantras — focus and simplicity. 
Simple can be harder than complex: 
You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. 
But it’s worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.
Steve Jobs

 Tweet of the Day
Image of the Day

via joemygod


Political Potpourri

Two new NBC polls in the two lead states. Cruz gets a second straight Iowa lead by 4 over Trump with Rubio and Carson following about 10 points back. Trump again laps the field in NH followed by Rubio, Christie, Cruz and Bush/Kasich.

 Sigh! Business As Usual For a Viking Fan

Just some background for the interested reader: I played 1 year of Little League (on a SC AFB) for the hapless 1-19 Twins. I ended up getting kicked off the team when some 8-year-old punk on my team razzed me about having a girlfriend (at this age, having a girlfriend was not cool; girls, after all, have cooties). So I playfully grabbed his collar and told him to knock it off. The coach grabbed me by the collar and threw me out of the dugout and told me to go home. We were playing the (inverse record) Yankees, so I went into the stands to cheer for my little brother on the team. Apparently the coach saw me in the stands committing the unpardonable sin rooting for the opposition and responded by kicking me off the team. This made me ineligible to attend the end of season fried chicken banquet at which Bobby Richardson, former star second baseman for the NY Yankees, was to appear. My parents tried to intercede but the coach was vehemently opposed. For some perverse reason, I became really interested in MLB and discovered the Minnesota Twins, although I never set foot in Minnesota until an academic conference while I was on the UWM faculty. (But it was really, really cool: the Viking cheerleaders were making an appearance at the hotel when I checked in.)

I started following the NFL soon after my fixation with MLB and transferred my loyalty to the Minnesota Vikings. Nobody else understands the frustration of going 0-4 in the Super Bowl. Then there was the 15-1 1998 team which blew a 10-point fourth quarter lead, not to mention a doable field goal attempt late in the game with a 7-point lead which would have clinched the victory. The Falcons tied the game with a last-minute touchdown and then went on to kick the game-winning field goal in overtime. So the Anderson field goal miss has haunted us Viking fans for years.

Today's playoff game saw the Vikings blow a 9-0 fourth quarter lead. There were 2 major plays that made the difference: one was when the Seattle quarterback having to chase a snap from around the 40 yard line several yards behind the line of scrimmage which should have killed the drive. Instead, he managed to find a wide open receiver downfield who ran to inside the 5-yard line, setting up the game's only touchdown. But the Vikings had the last possession and with a critical penalty downfield  and seemed to be playing for a time-expiring touchdown--but had to settle for a chip shot field goal attempt with seconds on the clock. It should have been automatic for the normally sure-footed Blair Walsh who had drilled 3 much longer field goals flawlessly earlier and had only missed one of over 30 attempts from that range during the regular season. But he inexplicably shanked it left; there has been some speculation that the placement of the ball by the holder was faulty, not spinning the laces of the ball away from the kicker, but Walsh took full responsibility after the game. I knew it almost immediately, and my expression was expletive deleted. This loss hurts over and beyond others. The Seahawks had blown out the 11-5 Vikings just a few weeks earlier, but for the most part the Vikes had clearly outplayed the Seahawks. Of course, the Seahawks, boasting one of the NFL's best defenses, had largely contained NFL rushing leader Adrian Peterson, who also made a costly fumble down the stretch.

On a brighter note, my alma mater University of Houston beat Florida State 38-24 in the Peach Bowl on New Year's Eve. Only 1 loss all season. Of course, I  had nothing to do with it.

The Chinese Currency Manipulation Bugaboo

Donald Boudreaux, one of my favorite free market economists, writes excellent posts debunking the bugaboos of trade deficits and currency manipulation. I recommend for my readers to read Don's readable weekend post on the latter. What's scary is that I have independently made similar points to Boudreaux and (cited) Slaughter in past posts, and I haven't done scholarly work in economics.

I just want to underscore a few points

  • To argue that the Chinese are manipulating currency for their economic benefit ignores the fact that Nixon abandoned convertible currency and the dollar has lost purchasing power since then. Not to mention the dollar is the world's reserve currency, which gives it enormous advantage over other currencies. The Fed doesn't float interest rates. It is hypocritical to point fingers at China, when other nations have to carry ever-cheaper dollars to finance trade, and a weakened dollar makes our assets and goods comparably cheaper.
  • A stronger currency (say, the dollar vs. the Chinese yuan) doesn't necessarily translate into trade deficits. For example, the yen has appreciated against the dollar over the past 45 years by a factor of 4 or so, but the trade deficit is up by a factor of 50.
  • Currency manipulation is a double-edged sword. For instance, most economies are not autarkic; finished goods may include raw materials or components available largely, if not entirely from foreign sources. If your currency is too weak, it is more expensive to acquire said resources. Ultimately, these higher costs have to be passed along to the consumer, making your goods less price-competitive. We have seen inflation in China, for instance, hit lower-income people hard on certain basic expenses.
  • We need to look at the primacy of the consumer. Competitive prices make the consumer better off, enabling the consumer to buy more goods and services either now or the future; domestic producers must innovate to compete. 
  • We should also point out that central planning of the Chinese economy is a competitive disadvantage. Economic intervention impedes market progress and adaptation.
Political Cartoon

Courtesy of Gary Varvel via Townhall
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Vocalists

 Aretha Franklin (with Elton John), "Through the Storm"



Veterans, Voluntary Security and School Kids



Thanks to these vets, kids are getting to school safely. Watch the full doc here: http://nationswell.com/no-veteran-left-behind-safe-passage-chicago/
Posted by NationSwell on Tuesday, January 5, 2016
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