Analytics

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Miscellany: 1/20/16

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A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in.
Greek proverb

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Political Potpourri

Well, as a founding member of the anybody-but-Trump club, things are looking bleak. One national poll has Trump lapping the fragmented field with the usual top four: Cruz, Rubio, and Carson. Two new NH polls both showing Trump ahead by 20, one with Kasich in second (and the usual suspects trailing except Carson back in the pack) and the other with Kasich in the trailing mix. It looks like Rubio and Bush are running neck and neck there and in Florida, which has Trump on top with 48% of the vote, double-lapping Cruz. North Carolina also has Trump lapping the field with the usual order.

The hot hand is with Sanders, although I can't make sense of the NH polls which in some cases show Sanders with blowout leads and others with narrower ones, like today's 3-point advantage. One worrisome sign for both Clinton and Trump showing Sanders with blowout advantages over GOP contenders--especially Trump and Cruz--in the purple (NH) state.

I do get the feel that Cruz has cooled down since the recent NY values and Canadian citizenship kerfuffle, and I don't know whether Cruz in Iowa has been hurt by the Iowa governor going after him for questioning subsidies the state's crony industries favor and by Palin's recent endorsement of Trump. I think caucuses are different than primaries and Cruz has a strong organization there. A lot depends on turnout by the Trump supporters. Trump claims that he has a strong organization, and he has a ton of money to go after any rivals who do emerge from IA and NH; there's little doubt, however, that a Trump loss would hurt his "winner" image. In more recent Sunday talk soup, Trump seemed to concede the possibility of losing Iowa but not NH.

It looks like Christie is losing momentum; if he doesn't place in NH, I don't see a path forward. Similarly, Carson has seen his share sink to single digits, his campaign leadership has been crumbling, and I don't see a path forward if he doesn't place in the first 2 states. If Kasich can place second or better in NH, I could see him vs. a stumbling Rubio serving as the anti-Trump coalition candidate. A lot depends on Iowa. If a candidate other than Trump or Cruz wins the caucus, he gets major momentum. I think Cruz is in at minimum through the mega-South primary day.

TPP and Intellectual Property



Choose Life: "Untold"



The Superbureaucracy of DHS



Rand Paul and the Drinking Game Debate




Youtube Place: The Cruz Citizenship Kerfuffle Spreads Into the Video on Trump's NY Values

Cruz renounced his birthrght Canadian citizenship in 2014. His mother was under the mistaken notion that Cruz had to apply for Canadian citizenship. Now it is true that during his 8-year work period in Canada, the elder Cruz did become a Canadian citizen--but you neglect to point out that Cruz had a US green card at the time and was a US resident. The elder Cruz renounced his Canadian citizenship when he finally became a US citizen in 2005. Now younger Cruz has born roughly 3 years into his family's stay. I'm not a Canadian legal scholar, but my understanding is that there is a 3-year residency requirement to be able to apply for Canadian citizenship, so his father almost certainly would not have been a citizen at the time of Ted's birth but during the first 4 years of Ted's life before the family permanent returned to the US. It doesn't really matter from a dual citizenship perspective, because Canada has birthright citizenship.

You really should think before you posted your reply, because it really makes you look like the buffoon you are. Ted Cruz has had a dual Canadian citizenship, but in no real sense has he been a Canadian citizen; he permanently left Canada before he went to kindergarten, he never lived or voted there or otherwise exercised his birthright. The moron OP clearly references that Cruz was a Canadian citizen, but this was never true beyond a formal citizenship claim. Your second point is trivial; I'm rounding up because his renunciation was official May 14, 2014; you are intentionally lowballing the time of renunciation--and rounding down. We are less than 4 months to 2 years. As for your final point, the INTENT for the 'natural born' requirement was a constitutional guard against foreign intrique. Certainly dual citizenship is suggestive of divided loyalties. This is why Trump's hypocrisy is so self-serving: Cruz had renounced his dual citizenship but not Trump. I may need to back off from that because I read somewhere that at the time of Trump's birth, the right of citizenship passed on only through a British father, not mother.

Just the Frack Facts







Choose Life: Daddy Loves Baby



Political Cartoon

Courtesy of Nate Beeler via Townhall
Musical Interlude: Your Favorite Vocalists

Gordon Lightfoot, "The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald". Unforgettable, magnificent ballad, arrangement and vocals, one of the greatest singles of the 70's.