A musician must make music,
an artist must paint,
a poet must write,
if he is to be ultimately at peace with himself.
What a man can be, he must be.
Abraham Maslow
Earlier One-Off Post: The Fifth 2016 GOP Presidential Debate: My Review
Tweet of the Day
@realDonaldTrump's illegal idea of targeting innocent relatives of terrorists would make the POTUS a war criminal. https://t.co/06srfSm62h
— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) December 18, 2015
Where did @realDonaldTrump get his immoral crackpot idea about using the techniques of organized crime in national policy? Old crime flicks?
— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) December 18, 2015
@realDonaldTrump's vow to take Middle East oil validates Arab and leftist propaganda. Don't forget ISIS is using US-paid arms & munititions
— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) December 19, 2015
Some 41% of @realDonaldTrump cultists want to bomb Agrabah. Aladdin himself is worried about Cruz's carpet bombing. https://t.co/QnP9ssXRlx
— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) December 19, 2015
Image of the Day
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| via Freakonomics |
The latest polls show that Trump has moved consistently to 30+ points nationally; the Fox News and Quinnipiac show Trump lapping Cruz at 18, Rubio in the early double digits, and Bush challenging Carson for fourth. However, the early states are tighter. There were a couple of Florida polls with Cruz surging past Rubio and Bush for second, Trump leading by 10-14 points. A Georgia poll has Trump lapping Cruz and Rubio. A New Hampshire poll has Trump lapping a tight cluster of double digit candidates led by Cruz & Rubio, Christie, Bush, and Kasich. More bad news for the GOP: Fox News has Trump losing to Clinton by 11 points nationally.
I suspect that Trump's rise has less to do with organic growth than a redistribution of Outsider support from Carson, who is no longer appearing in the money and seems to be sinking into the single digits. I'm not predicting an early Trump meltdown, but keep an eye on the original states and note that unlikely Huckabee and Santorum in the last two campaigns leveraged strong showings in Iowa to finish in the money nationally. I still think that Trump's constantly losing to Clinton is going to matter more than cynical attempts to send a message through Trump. We'll see; I think Trump support is soft, the current rise has more to do with recent terrorist attacks and the erosion in Carson's support. If so, we'll see Trump's lead to slowly erode barring some interim development. As I mentioned in an earlier tweet, I see this more like the 1996 race where Buchanan got off to a strong start but the opposition quickly consolidated behind Dole. I still think the most likely candidate in the Dole role this cycle is Rubio, who has wider support across the GOP base and contrasts well with Clinton, although he seems to have flatlined over the last 2-3 weeks.
Rand Paul on the Fourth Amendment
If You Show Star Wars On a College Campus
Remy, Star Wars, and Nazi Germany
Political Cartoon
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| Courtesy of Chip Bok via Townhall |
Brenda Lee, "Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree"
