It is not the mountain we conquer but ourselves.
Edmund Hillary
Tweet of the Day
— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
Whereas Cruz will likely be mathematically eliminated from achieving a first-round victory by month end, he can block Trump from the same.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
Cruz with victories in WI and CO will ensure enough states to quality for multi-ballot nomination. Trump is almost no delegate's second.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
Trump is politically dead if the convention goes beyond one ballot. That's why he has to go into the convention with 1237, which is unlikely— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
Personally, I think the wheeler-dealer in Trump loves the idea of a brokered convention if he can't win the 1237, offering plum Admin spots.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
I think, though, that each delegate going to the convention knows Trump is polling lousy in fall matchups, which is a disaster down-ticket.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
Nearly half of GOP women voters reject voting for Trump this fall. He loses up to a third or more of GOP voters overall.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
Trump loses black and ethnic voters by historic percentages. He even loses to Sanders more than to Clilnton.He can't explain away videotapes— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
Trump likes to say he hasn't even started to battle Clinton yet. Believe me, the national media haven't begun to go after Trump— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
Trump has even bungled his relationship with FNC. His Trumpertantrum with Megyn Kelly in particular was an unnecessary blunder.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
Trump has been whining, because the Cruz campaign has outorganized him every step of the way. He has to resort to crackpot conspiracies.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
For months, the Outsiders (Trump, Carson, Fiorina) were routinely capturing 50-60% of polls vs. the other 14 candidates. Cruz was struggling— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
Trump hasn't even retained all the Outsider voters, even after Carson endorsed him. Even his home state of NY might not push him over 50%.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
For a good piece on GOP delegate math through June: https://t.co/iqzzrNtAA7— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
Cruz, in his multi-ballot strategy, has a vested interest in a brokered convention restricted to Trump and him. He has a polling problem too— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
Right now Election Betting Odds has the chance of a brokered convention at about 60%. It shows Cruz with an 80% chance of carrying WI today— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
Even if we ignore Trump's innumerable unprovoked personal attacks against fellow candidates and others, if and when he loses, it's his fault— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
No one can deny Trump's unconventional strategy has been effective, and he has been the beneficiary of his opponents' negligence to attack.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
@justanothe4159 I agree. Just curious, what do you make of Scott Adams' claim of Trump's mastery of persuasion?— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
However effectively Trump has been able to exploit frustration with the status quo, he did not invest in building a political organization.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
People forget Trump was leading in IA polls. Cruz outmaneuvered him and Trump falsely tried to blame his loss on Cruz' poaching of Carson.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
The talk going into Iowa was a high turnout favored Trump. But Trump underperformed in a record turnout, despite dominating media coverage.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
Whining about winning in Louisiana but getting outflanked by Cruz' political operatives in the delegate hunt reveals incompetence.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
The Cruz campaign did not make the current rules. Trump has more resources than Cruz, but he didn't do due diligence. It's Trump's own fault— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
The mishandling of the Michelle Fields incident and the abortion kerfuffle badly hurt Trump's credibility, not with his cultists, but others— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
I don't think that Trump can pivot to the general election. I think it's theoretical even Trump could win this fall, but it would be a fluke— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
For example, if we had some event like a global economic shock or a successful terrorist attack which hurt Obama politically Trump could win— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
But right now Obama is hovering near 50% approval--much higher than Bush in 2008. Clearly Clinton has attached herself to Obama.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
I had an earlier reply from a psychologist who warned that Trump is a dangerous person. How many times have I tweeted Trump needs a shrink?— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 5, 2016
This is Soft Rock America. According to Washpo, this is who Donald Trump thinks he is: https://t.co/rBhUF2EUgl— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 6, 2016
This is Soft Rock America. This is how Trump cultists perceive him: https://t.co/FpjDyaKIhu— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 6, 2016
This is Soft Rock America. This is how the silent majority perceives Trump: https://t.co/etLV7OCtfk— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 6, 2016
Trump seems to think that he can pay for his signature Southern border wall by stealing money transfers to Mexico. The market will adjust.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 6, 2016
Early Wisconsin returns show Cruz winning a simple majority of votes in the GOP primary, trouncing Trump.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 6, 2016
The AP and FNC have already called Wisconsin for Cruz.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 6, 2016
In the Left-Fascist primary in WI, Sanders beat Clinton in a closer battle, extending Clinton's slump.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 6, 2016
At about 37% of the vote, Cruz is beating Trump 52-31. Once again, Cruz is overperforming and Trump underperforming the polls. RCP: Cruz +5.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 6, 2016
Trump told Washpo that he can eliminate the $19T national debt in 8 years. No, he can't. He seems to confound federal and trade deficits.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 6, 2016
Trump once again shows that he is a sore loser and has 101 excuses for why he underperformed and Cruz overperformed. https://t.co/YeIrPjPM87— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 6, 2016
Trump's debt elimination fantasy is like his social security reform fantasy that he can solve it by eliminating waste. No, it's cash flow.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 6, 2016
Let's be clear: Trump is unwilling to touch the 70% of the federal budget which is mandatory entitlement spending. He wants to increase DoD.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 6, 2016
To eliminate the national debt, Trump would not only have to balance the budget but have to run $2.5T surpluses. In FY15, revenues=$3.25T.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 6, 2016
So, Trump is unwilling to cut 70% mandatory spending+20% DoD. The remaining 10% of domestic spending will be fought tooth and nail by Dems.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 6, 2016
So Trump's only real way to get to budget surpluses and debt writedowns is through recessionary massive tax increases, anathema to Congress.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 6, 2016
Election Betting Odds now show a contested GOP convention now at better than 67%. Trump still has a good shot at denying Cruz 1237 by EOM.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 6, 2016
However, Cruz has no incentive to drop out until Trump hits 1237. Cruz could also make a play for Rubio and/or Kasich delegates.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 6, 2016
Image of the DayThe problem for Trump is that Cruz is competitive in May and June contests and Trump still has to win more than 50% of remaining delegates.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) April 6, 2016
Young Women Debate Liberty vs. the State
American Idol Swan Song Week
To be honest, I have not watched since the top 10 elimination round. I did find Mackenzie Bourg compelling but he was eliminated from the final four. Tonight Fox ran a series retrospective; I will probably watch the final two shows this week. I read a recent interview with the series producer; he seemed to suggest that the show will probably be revamped and shopped to different networks. If you remember my past commentaries, I had suggested a hiatus before this season. They did put some interesting wrinkles in this season, like duets with past season performers and doing away with the annoying weekly results show. But the show had annoyed me with indulgent song selections I didn't recognize, and I liked to see performers tackle different genres of music.
It's difficult to say exactly how to retool a future competition. I've never really liked how the judges were marginalized down the stretch and contestant popularity often trumped performance. I do think some sort of fusion voting plus song metrics (think of how diving or gymnastics judging involving the difficulty of execution) would be an improvement. The Voice's team format could also be adapted, with interteam and intrateam pairwise duels.
Why Baseball Is the National Pastime
Choose Life: Wake Up, Daddy!
White Lion Family
Political Cartoon
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| Courtesy of Ken Catalino via Townhall |
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Vocalists
Donna Summer, "MacArthur Park". I loved the Richard Harris original cover of a Jimmy Webb classic. This remake was Donna's first #1 on the Hot 100 and the first of 7 consecutive Top 5 hits.
