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Saturday, March 26, 2016

The Twelfth 2016 GOP Presidential Debate

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The twelfth GOP debate took place in Miami. Yes, I'm aware that it's been a couple of weeks since the debate (I've been delayed by other priorities).. I've been maintain a full set of debate reviews over this cycle. All links are current at the time of posting, and it is not my intent to write a blow-by-blow review. I'm going to pick up on salient threads and discuss them. [There seems to be some blending of my notes from debates 11 and 12; it's possible that my eleventh GOP debate review included points made during debate 12. Keep in mind we're rehashing some of the same issues among the debates.]

We're going through immigration and trade again. Cruz and Rubio had been hammering each other on the Senate bill that passed last session when the Dems controlled the Senate but which was never taken up by the House and died; Rubio, of course, was part of the bipartisan Gang of 8; Cruz has been attacking Rubio for his part in the compromise and Trump for having donated to a number of senators in the Gang of 8. Rubio has tried to argue that Cruz got his hands dirty by filing amendments against the bill, which Cruz argued were poison pills, e.g., legal status vs. path to citizenship. Rubio pointed out that he had raised a couple of dozen issues on the record during and after the process. Virtually all the candidates agree on strengthening the border, more Border Patrol, e-verify, fences, Trump's signature wall. Kasich somewhat differs by wanting a functional guest worker program and he wants legal status vs. Trump's mass deportation for workers with a clean record during residency, a defined process for paying back taxes, etc. Rubio is the one who tends to focus more on reforming legal immigration, merit vs. family connection, but he is reluctant to deal with final status until border issues are provably restored. Trump is the same old same old--we will build a wall, and Mexico will pay for it. There have been times he's suggested that he might be willing to let the "good ones" back soon.

In this debate, with the others more willing to challenge Trump, he took heat for using the loopholes of the immigration system which he tried to play to his advantage, saying since he knows the loopholes, he knows how to patch the system. Cruz argued that low-skilled immigrants are driving down wages. (False.)

I'm for open immigration and so I'm opposed to most of this discussion. I will point out first of all that none of the candidates has ever made the case that unauthorized immigration is a contagion, accelerating. In fact, Mexican immigration has largely stabilized, even reversed since the Great Recession of 2007. Second, the candidates have not addressed the basic issue in unauthorized entry, which has been an almost nonexistent, restrictive, counterproductive guest worker program. I've discussed Eisenhower's solution, which was basically to legalize migrant workers. Third, all of these programs, whether we are talking about expansion of the Border Patrol, fences, e-verify, etc., are Big Government expansions at the expense of liberty, with no discussion of costs and benefits. Finally, of all the issues we're facing, GOP voters consistently rank the issue last.

More importantly, restrictive immigration impedes growth. We absurdly cap immigrants to the point a year's quota is often filled within a matter of hours; immigration from large countries like China and China is almost impossible. A disproportionate percentage of immigrants create new business startups. It's not just high-skill jobs; up to half of the most physically demanding, low-paying jobs are filled by immigrants. In an aging, birthrate-shrinking economy, how can the GOP demonize immigration or defend the status quo, including restrictions on the economic rights of employers to contract?

Trade was a topic with Trump promising he can use tariffs to force resourcing of jobs.  First, he can't do it under American treaties/laws. Second, American manufacturing is doing well; it's just they need fewer workers because of productiviry. Third, the service sector has been in a long-term trend relative to manufacturing in terms of jobs. Fourth, Trump doesn't understand the trade deficit. For example, I buy far more from WalMart than WalMart buys from me. Yet I am satisfied with my transactions. Exports are what we do to get imports. Nobody would trade with us if we didn't produce goods and services. Trump doesn't understand why companies expand production overseas; For example, a key reason for Nabisco to shift production of Oreos to Mexico has to do with Nabisco having to pay above world prices for sugar in the US.  We need a more competitive policy to attract new and additional investments. The US has absurdly high business tax rates and regulations.

Trump did have an odd soundbite I mentioned in my tweets that when he praises strongmen like Putin, it doesn't mean that he thinks it's a good thing. As if when he calls a leader weak, it's a good thing!

The final ranking of debate performance (from strong to weak):
  • Cruz
  • Rubio
  • Kasich
  • Trump
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