After much suffering and torment, I was resurrected large, and pure, and immaculate.
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Earlier One-Off Post: The 2016 Tenth GOP Presidential Debate
Tweet of the Day
The Guardian has a piece on certain articulate secret Trump supporters. A number are crackpot lefties. Delusional. https://t.co/ALQV6kvLev— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
I should rant about the Trump supporters one by one. Some are raging about political correctness: something POTUS has no control over.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
One guy is super-educated and older than me and is raging over involuntary retirement. The problem is, Trump is a Big Government guy.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Trump is a wheeler-dealer. That means that he's like Boehner, Pelosi and Reid on steroids. He's going to pick winners and losers.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Now think about it--when Obama and a Dem Congress took control in 2009, they focused spending on green energy, infrastructure, education.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
First of all, even if you agreed with these priorities in the long run (and I have issues with that), what are you doing in the short run?— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
The millions of people who were laid off during the Great Recession weren't employed in those chosen areas. We needed broad-based reform.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Tom Woods is back to Romney-bashing. I used to follow Tom Woods until he posted a birthday greeting for Ron Paul, bashing Romney in doing so— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
So I should have realized that Tom Woods, an AnCap, saw Romney deliver a speech on Trump, he would have something nasty to say about Romney.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Woods is also close to Lew Rockwell, once associated with Ron Paul and a key Mises website. Rockwell is rather enjoying the chaos of Trump.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Rockwell despises the mythical GOP establishment that Trump is attacking and regularly features sympathetic Trump posts on his own website.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Now I am a non-interventionist in foreign policy and I have written tweets and blog posts criticizing neocons, including Romney.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
I have a softer approach to neocons than Ron Paul's in-your-face, almost conspiracy theory approach. I talk about oversubscribed commitments— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
I talk about unintended consequences of military intervention. I talk about being in a perpetual state of war in remote areas, no benefits.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Now, circling back to Trump, he is getting a lot credit for having been against the second Iraq War. But let's look a little closer.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Trump, who had registered Democrat after he dropped out of the 2000 Reform Party race, had agreed that Saddam Hussein was a problem.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
In 1998, Bill Clinton signed legislation making regime change in Iraq a national policy. Trump in fact blamed Bush 41 for not finishing job.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Let's be clear: Bush 41 knew that taking out Hussein would unleash the Pandora's box of sectarian conflict. Why did Bush 43 go there?— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Personally, I never saw Hussein as a credible threat to US defense. But a lot of us after 9/11 were concerned with anti-American alliances.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
I think Democrats after 9/11, like Hillary Clinton and Trump, didn't want to be seen as soft on Hussein and gave Bush 43 a limited mandate.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
The Bush Administration believed the invasion would be a short-lived operation and was caught unprepared for the aftermath.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Public sentiment justifiably started to turn against the occupation, and Trump followed suit.As the Howard Stern Show proved, AFTER invasion— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
But make no mistake: Trump is no pacifist. He's all in on the War on Terror. He wants to "bomb the shit" out of ISIS; he wants to take oil.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
But make no mistake: Trump is no pacifist. He's all in on the War on Terror. He wants to "bomb the shit" out of ISIS; he wants to take oil.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Anti-war Woods decided to go after Romney as a hypocritical neocon. Never mind the fact Romney is not in the race & is addressing a valid pt— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Woods was giving Trump debate counterpoints to rebut Romney.Trump IS a neocon interventionist.He also approves Russian intervention in Syria— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
The problem is that Trump's knowledge of policy is as paper-thin as his resume in the public sector. He thinks and acts impulsively.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Why Woods is not focusing on an out-of-control authoritarian wannabe like Trump, a Nixon in the making on steroids, I don't know.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
To his credit, Ron Paul has been vocal in pointing out the dangers of Donald Trump. How Rockwell and Woods, slavishly pro-Paul, don't agree?— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Reading the crackpot lefties is amusing, e.g., free market "superstitutions". Market liberalizations have taken millions out of poverty.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Let me go back to Trump's claim in the last debate about employing seasonal workers at his Palm Beach resort. A lot of work is not regular.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Since 1999, I've done a lot of short-term assignments, some as little as 2 weeks long (an audit or installation), temp work for production.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Much government contract work is short-term, can be as little as 6 months to a year. You're an FTE, but your job disappears with contract.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
I worked with a DBA colleague on a project last year who left for a local project in his home state of Michigan. He's now in the market.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Would all of us prefer for steadier opportunities? Of course. But it's the nature of the current economy. Big Govt is the problem.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Trump said that he can't find seasonal employees in Palm Beach. That's a flat out lie.There are agencies who have help available, no calls.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Now I'm pro-immigration and for guest worker programs. But there are issues with the status quo which limit worker rights as Rubio explained— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Super Saturday TweetsOne of the brightest scholars on immigration is Alex Nowrasteh. His father's film, The Young Messiah, opens next wk. pic.twitter.com/66Mg1enXJm— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 6, 2016
Early results show Cruz beating Trump 2-1 in the Kansas caucuses with about a third of the vote in. (Trump led 2 RCP polls.)— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Cruz also has about 48% of early vote and about a 13 pt. lead over Trump in the early Maine results (5% in). The Maine governor for Trump.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
There are only two partial state returns right now, but Marco Rubio and John Kasich are way down out of contention. It looks good for Cruz.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
So, CNN, explain to me again how Trump has 49% of the national vote? The only one doing 49% today is Cruz.Could we be looking at peak-Trump?— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Kansas is at halftime with the score Cruz 49.1% Trump 24.6% Rubio 14.8%— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
The AP has called Kansas for Cruz.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Cruz edged Rubio in the CPAC straw poll with Conservative-in-Name-Only Trump a distant third. Trump is getting his ass kicked today.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 5, 2016
Kentucky finally starting to report with a slight Trump lead over Cruz (+2.5 pts) at 1%. Maine reported new numbers, Cruz +6.5 pts at 9%.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 6, 2016
Kansas: final numbers Cruz 48.3% Trump 23.3%. In Kentucky Trump has extended his lead over Cruz to 9 pts at 4% of the vote.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 6, 2016
About a quarter of the vote is in; nobody has called it, but I am. Trump's held on to roughly a 10 pt. lead to about 25% of the vote.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 6, 2016
There's only one poll I've seen in RCP on Kentucky, Trump at 35, 13 over Rubio, 20 over Cruz. Based on that, Rubio way down, Cruz way up.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 6, 2016
Maine finally reports 100% results: Cruz 46% Trump 33%. This means Cruz finishes no worse than a split for the night, with his earlier win.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 6, 2016
Technically Louisiana has only posted a small number of votes, but Trump looks like he's going to finish in the mid-40%'s, Cruz, Rubio lo-20— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 6, 2016
OK, to sum up: Cruz crushed Trump in Kansas and Maine; Trump wins in Kentucky and Louisiana. Rubio finishes no better than third.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 6, 2016
On the Dem side (if anyone cares), Clinton wins Louisiana, Sanders wins Nebraska. Kansas results still pending.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 6, 2016
@gotapoint Cruz won Kansas 2-1 over Trump, by 13 pts in Maine. Kentucky and Lousiana vote counts aren't even half in yet.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 6, 2016
It looks like the Trump lead in Kentucky has shrunk to about 6 pts at 44% of the vote; so maybe my call was premature. Where are the rest?— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 6, 2016
The early Louisiana vote indicated Cruz in a battle for second with Rubio. With 41%, Trump leads 43-36 over Cruz. AP has called for Trump.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 6, 2016
At 55% in KY, Trump lead down to 4. In Louisiana Trump lead down to 6 at 48%. If Trump clings to single-digit lead, HUGE night for Cruz.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 6, 2016
Cruz was down by nearly 16 pts in RCP polls for LA, 20 in KY. At 70% in LA, Cruz is down by < 5 pts.; at 63% in Ky, 3.5 pts.Trump under RCP— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 6, 2016
At this point, I think Rubio is done. We still have Tuesday, but Cruz can say that he could have won KY and LA if Rubio and/or Kasich gone.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 6, 2016
AP has called Kentucky for Trump, as I did earlier. I still want to see what the final margin is. If Trump only wins by 5 pts or so...— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 6, 2016
AP has delegate count as I write: Trump 373, Cruz 291, Rubio 122, Kasich 33. Rubio and Kasich, the fat lady is singing.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 6, 2016
Super SaturdayFinal results: Cruz lost to Trump in Kentucky by 4.3%, Louisiana by 3.7%. This is YUGE.Without Rubio and Kasich splitting the non-Trump vote— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 6, 2016
Well, I don't want to repeat what I tweeted earlier this evening: updated delegate count Trump 378 Cruz 295. I see this evening huge for Cruz: he won 2 states outside the South, Kansas and Maine, and he came within 5 points of beating Trump in Louisiana and Kentucky. In a race where Trump has been leading almost anywhere in double digits, Cruz beat Trump in 5 states this week, including the biggest (TX, OK, KS, ME, AL). Given Cruz was barely reaching double-digits, just 2-4 months back, and Trump has been running one of the most unorthodox campaigns in the history of the GOP, Trump suddenly seems very beatable. In TX, ME, and KS, Cruz got 40-odd% of the vote and beat Trump in double digits. In Maine, the incumbent GOP governor endorsed Trump, and Cruz still won.
We have 4 contests Tuesday (MI, ID, HI, MS); the polls I've seen are limited, but Cruz has the best ground game of the final four, and he's been outperforming the polls. I'm not sure but it seemed today that Rubio's supporters may be capitulating jumping to the Cruz campaign. We'll know better Tuesday night, but I would not be surprised if Cruz did well. The question is: will Kasich or Rubio leave before the humiliation of losing their home states? I think their chances are not very good.
Election Betting Odds shows Cruz now resurrecting to second place to the overwhelming favorite Trump. My whole outlook changed based on tonight's results. I think Cruz is in an uptrend. If Trump is not worried, he should be.
On the Dem side, Sanders won 2 of 3 against Clinton (NE, KS vs. LA). But Clinton already has nearly half the delegates needed to clinch the nomination and I expect her to do well Tuesday in MI, MS, with high percentages of black Democrats.
Reason Visits CPAC
Lawless Government
The Young Messiah: Opening Next Weekend
Political Cartoon
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Stevie Wonder, "If You Really Love Me"
