So far on the Dem side, Sanders has won his home state, and Clinton so far has won Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Virginia.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
As expected, Trump has won several states: Alabama, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee and Virginia. Rubio over 30 in VA, Cruz leads OK, TX.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
@AlexNowrasteh I disagree. You have 2 conservatives splitting the opposition vote. Rubio would have carried Virginia. Trump is not > 50.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
@AlexNowrasteh I agree that Trump is likely to win the nomination. I don't think Cruz is going to leave after winning TX and OK.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
@AlexNowrasteh The issue has to do with electability. That was the issue that carried McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
@AlexNowrasteh It's a moot issue--unless Rubio goes rogue and runs third party. Historically, populists don't do well nationally.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
@AlexNowrasteh Well, Perot had led in 1992 at one point. Here you have a young guy running against 2 near-70 yo candidates with high neg.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
@AlexNowrasteh I don't think Rubio will do it. He did win in 2010 with a popular governor running third party. I think he'll wait until 2020— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
Could Rubio win his first? Minnesota shows Rubio leading by 10 over Trump with 10% of the vote.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
Correction: right now Rubio 37 Cruz 27 Trump 20 in Minnesota. The night is young, but I just heard Trump brag the worst he'll finish is #2— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
Viewers got a mega-dose of Trump bullshit hype tonight, referring to his opponents as "so-called conservatives".He's the "real" conservative— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
Ted Cruz fended off a birther challenge for his name on the Illinois primary ballot. The judge ruled on procedural vs. birther grounds.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
AP and Fox News have called Minnesota for Rubio's first victory. Sanders has added Colorado and leads in Minnesota.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
Trump is trying to hype that he's growing a movement, a Reagan Democrat-independent coalition, party reunification.Delusional. #NeverTrump— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
Nate Silver has an interesting chart of defecting party percentage each Presidential cycle; Trump already has a firm quarter against.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
It's hilarious to hear Cruz and Kasich call on Rubio to leave the race. Cruz should have done better in his regional base;Kasich mostly 4-5%— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
Rubio overperformed in states like VA and GA and continues to win a large plurality of late deciders. He is more electable.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
I do think Rubio has a big test in his home state of Florida, and assuming Trump holds on to 40% of the vote, it's tough. But Rubio's #s up.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
Rubio's road is tough. But he has a natural organization advantage in Florida, and Trump in some states has been underperforming the polls.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
What about Trump's claim he's growing the GOP? Recall that Iowa did have a higher turnout, but it helped Cruz and Rubio more than Trump.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
WashPo has a piece on how Trump is broadening his support, saying many are not admitting they support him plus the bandwagon effect.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
What Cruz and Rubio have got to do is undermine Trump's alleged ability to tell it like it is. E.g., not letting vets sell near his property— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
In late returns, Trump edged Kasich in Vermont, and he and Cruz are battling for Alaska with a quarter of the vote in.Where is this 49% CNN?— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
@Trumpbart Plus, his growing popularity overseas, endorsed by Putin, Kim Jong-un, and Jean-Marie Le Pen.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
Well, there's no way to supercoat the results: a big night for Trump and Clinton. The evening started out badly for me with my cable going out for 20 minutes past 8PM. I earlier thought that Cruz or Rubio had a shot at GA, AR and VA, and Trump took them all. On a brighter note, Cruz won Oklahoma and is leading in Alaska as I write (1.6 points @ 75%), while Rubio finally notched his first victory in Minnesota. Cruz did better than expected in his home state of Texas, winning by 17 points, while a couple of recent polls showed Trump pull within a near-tie. Rubio doesn't look to hit the 20 point threshold for delegates so those will be distributed between Cruz and Trump.With 50% of the Alaska vote in, Cruz leads Trump by 2.5 points. But no call yet and Cruz only recently flipped into the lead.— Ronald Guillemette (@raguillem) March 2, 2016
As I write, Trump won the biggest load of delegates: 274 vs 149 Cruz vs. 82 Rubio. This will likely change overnight. Trump won in the NE and across the South. In a few states (AL, MA), Trump broke 40% like NV, and one of the anti-Trump talking points (including my own) was that the upper limit of Trump's appeal was around 35%. But I thought that the national 49% figure from CNN was overstated.
I don't see how Carson goes forward from here. So far he's only won 8 delegates on the night, and he's not in contention for any future states that I've seen. The Rubio campaign finally broke into the win column; their story is momentum was on their side going into the winner takes all states. But he seems to face a big test in 2 week in his winner-take-home state of Florida. Cruz has 3, maybe 4 wins overall, but he's heading into states without his strong social conservative base.. Kasich is playing for Michigan and Ohio (one and 2 weeks respectively), saying if he can't win his home state, he's done, which is an understatement. Expect to see a double team against on Trump in this week's debate. Right now the idea of a brokered convention seems unlikely. Trump could win pluralities in winner-take-all takes with a divided opposition. Rubio needs to pick up more victories to be seen as a credible threat to Trump.
