Analytics

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Miscellany: 11/24/15

Quote of the Day
Pay no attention to what the critics say... 
Remember, a statue has never been set up in honor of a critic!
Jean Sibelius

Tweet of the Day
Image of the Day

Well, The Sampled Opinions Are Fairly Typical and No Doubt Would be Acceptable to Academic Progressive Groupthink



Political Potpourri

Two more polls out; IA and MA. Whereas Trump's winning streak continues, it looks like his post-Paris bounce is already starting to fade. The latest IA poll shows Trump at 25, just 2 points over Cruz. This is the second IA poll this week where Cruz does over 20 and third recent poll where Cruz and Trump are tied or close (i.e., the recent TX poll). Carson is clearly losing momentum, although he places third and Rubio fourth. This is only the second MA poll I've seen--I think Trump got nearly a 50% share last poll and he is down to 32, Rubio once again is runner up although 14 points behind, Cruz pulls in third, and Carson falls to fourth. I want to see a few more Southern and national polls before I say that Carson is done, at least for the time being.

There are some signs that Trump may have peaked, not just wishful thinking on my part. For the first time I'm seeing anti-Trump cartoons (including today's below) from conservative cartoonists. A second thing is that he once against is threatening a third-party bid, arguing that reports that a Kasich PAC might attack him breaks a promise by the GOP leadership not to take sides. This is the same fool who has been threatening to return fire on political opponents $10 for every $1 against him. This does not sound like someone confident that he will win the nomination. Let me just say that I believe that Trump is completely bluffing. He has zero support in Congress (among other things, not good if he doesn't get a majority of electoral votes, which is all but impossible). I don't think a Trump third-party attempt will get any traction--just consider the fact in 2010 Rubio won a 3-way race in a purple state. Trump still runs worse than almost anyone against Hillary Clinton, especially in battleground states like NH. My guess is that Trump will find a way of a face-saving withdrawal, try to become kingmaker--most probably Ted Cruz. and declare victory, maybe a couple of planks in the platform. This is speculative, of course. I didn't really think that Trump would have 9 political lives in leading polls since August.

I am absolutely furious with Rand Paul's demagoguery on the Syrian refugee issue and came within an eyelash of withdrawing my support of his candidacy. For now, I've made some symbolic protests, like dropping certain social media feeds. He is actually seeing a small recovery to maybe 5-6% in early primaries. If and when he wins something, I think it'll be in caucus states. I think he'll do well if he can get 10-11% of the vote, like his dad did last campaign in the primaries. But when 40% of the GOP base thinks terrorism is the biggest problem, he's at a disadvantage to the neocons. I suspect it's going to take something like what just happened in the Argentinian Presidential election after years of economic disaster under leftist Peronist leadership, before Rand Paul catches on nationally.  I hope that I'm wrong--I think if and when the house of card implodes, it'll be a monumental disaster.

Facebook Corner

(IPI). With just 45% of what it needs today to ensure it can pay out future retirement benefits, the Kentucky Retirement System is among the worst-funded in the nation.
In a move to stop the bleeding, Governor-elect Matt Bevin has proposed transitioning its government workers from pensions to self-managed retirement plans such as 401(k)s, signaling the state is ready to take on reform.
 Finally, BUDGET SANITY has returned to the State of Kentucky:

 "A 15.5 percent return in fiscal 2014 wasn’t enough to bolster the Kentucky Employees Retirement System, which serves 119,735 workers and retirees. Officials shortchanged the plan for more than a decade. They diverted the cash elsewhere, leaving KERS with 21 percent of the funds needed to pay promised benefits in 2014 as distributions exceeded revenue. No single U.S. state plan has a lower ratio, according to the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College....As municipalities mended their finances following the recession, some used pension cash to plug budget deficits...Kentucky’s pensions haven’t been fully funded since fiscal 2002, Thielen said. "
(response to interim comments)
I'm not exactly sure what [discussant's] point is. When we talk about fully-funded pensions, we are talking about the ratio of assets to liabilities. Obviously state/employee pension contributions have an impact on funding, as well as investment returns/pension fund growth. Note that the liability side of the equation looks at expected distributions and retirement lifespans. And also note that we have seen contributions grow as a percentage of the public budget to the point of crowding out of essential services. Whether or not states kick in their full expected contributions, you have to look at the other ratio factors. Note that the outgoing KY governor mentioned in the article even if the state kicked in its full expected share and investment returns hit their target, the funding could continue decreasing from 21% to 15%. Also note that actuaries want better than 100% funding, given the likelhood of pension fund contractions during a recession.

(Lew Rockwell). The Turkish-US air force has shot down a Russian plane. Even if the Russian plane was slightly in Turkish airspace for a few seconds, which I doubt, it was a highly dangerous and irresponsible act by the Turks, though approved and perhaps even ordered by the US. Icing on the cake of hate was the murder by CIA rebels of the 2 parachuting pilots. The US-armed, Turkish-allied “rebels” shouted “God Is Great” around the dead bodies. The cheer actually means, of course, “God approves our crimes.” CIA mujahideen: neocon boots on the ground.
Oh, yes, I want to hear Rockwell plead the case of those non-interventionist Russians a long way from home....

(National Review). I Will Not Apologize for Making a Joke About Star Wars
I would rather watch 90 minutes of Kat Timpf on Red Eye than see any Star Wars movie. She's prettier, funnier, and smarter than Princess Leia.

Political Cartoon

Courtesy of the original artist via IPI
Courtesy of Steve Breen via Townhall
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Vocalists

Aretha Franklin, "I'm in Love"

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