Analytics

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Miscellany: 11/04/15

Quote of the Day
I am extraordinarily patient, provided I get my own way in the end.
Margaret Thatcher

Tweet of the Day
Image of the Day

Political Potpourri

The two latest national polls show Trump up by 1% and 3% respectively over Carson. But the stealth story is that Rubio and Cruz now have a lock on the #3 and 4 positions, both in double-digits.  For all practical purposes, Trump and Carson are in a tie for the lead since the end of October. Whereas Trump is still winning a plurality of contests, there can be no doubt he's fading. States where he had been leading by huge margins (e.g., NH, GA, FL, SC, etc.) we've seen, at least in some polls (most recently NH), the lead has shrunk to single digits, as low as 3 points, possibly statistically insignificant. Now I do think Trump has a base, maybe up to a quarter, who will probably stay with him through the first few contests, and in a fragmented field, he could still grab his fair share of victories.

However, unless he creates a sense of inevitability, it's difficult to see how he increases his market share from here; his major problem is that except for a recent slump by Hillary Clinton during the email kerfuffle, Trump has been consistently losing head to heads against Clinton and/or Sanders (he's won 2 and tied 2 over several months of polls against Clinton), and most of the polls have shown him doing worse against Clinton than his challengers. For example, in the latest Quinnipiac head to heads, he was the only one to lose to Clinton. Now given Clinton and Trump have high name recognition, this is not a good sign because most of Trump's challengers aren't as well known, and Trump and Clinton have a natural advantage over the other GOP contenders.  This race still smells a bit like 1996, where Buchanan won NH primary but the opposition quickly coalesced around Dole. That's why I've been paying special attention to the Rubio-Cruz rivalry.

I'm still wondering at the curious KBUR vs. Gravis polls released yesterday. The Gravis polls had Trump up by 7 and Clinton by 32; KBUR has Carson by 8 and Clinton by 14. The KBUR polls seem closer to the truth.

Bush Looks at Trump



Debunking Economically Illiterate Sanders' Propaganda



Legalized Thuggery/Plunder, Local Edition



SCOTUS Watch

As if you haven't guessed my viewpoint: NO to UT's implementation of affirmative action, NO to union plunder of non-union teachers to subsidize union speech, and NO to a state's unconstitutional grab of assets under civil asset forfeiture.



Rand Paul On the Tyranny of Government Bureaucrats



Political Cartoon

Courtesy of the original artist via IPI
 Courtesy of Lisa Benson via Townhall
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Vocalists

Aretha Franklin, "The Weight"