Quote of the Day
Never miss a chance to keep your mouth shut.
Robert Newton Peck
Obama and the Fall of the American Empire
Courtesy of cagw.org.
Secretary of Business? Thumbs DOWN!
Remember on Labor Day, I took a tip from a free market website and celebrated both labor and capital day? It turns out in 1903 there was a new Commerce and Labor Dept and a decade later it was split.
The Romney campaign is ridiculing the First Among Czars' proposal of a Secretary of Business (noting Romney doesn't need one. I have a more direct response: first of all, what does he think is the purpose of the Commerce Department?) I don't mind reorganizing and streamlining government but I want to shrink, not expand the number of departments. In fact I agree with Gov. Perry--we should eliminate (at least) 3 departments, one of which is Commerce.
Election 2012 Countdown
5 days away, conflicting polls, the Cadillac of the industry, Gallup, stopped sampling during Hurricane Sandy. Rasmussen has Romney up by 2, UnskewedPolls by 4. I would feel better if Romney was leading by more than statistical error in battleground states.
Will Obama get a boost from Hurricane Sandy? Chis Christie had a highly noticed photo op with Obama. First, if there's anything Obama knows beyond politics and symbolism, it's how to spend other people's money. Obama His able to exploit incumbency--but it is also a double-edged sword . Most of the affected areas are blur states, and federal aid occurs in forms that don't deal with immediate issues, heavily dependent on private sector charity/relief. Drudge (Report) has a number of links talking about frustrated victims trying to get gasoline and supplies; Obama could find himself the scapegoat for any breakdown in law and order, not unlike Bush after Katrina. My gut feel is that it won't be material, e.g., an October surprise event; it would be interesting to see how the elections north of Maryland are affected, e.g., voting machines, communications, etc. IT departments routinely deal with similar issues: there should be (assuming even minimal competence in the public sector). Logistics of getting people to the polls may be tougher.
I don't hold the Romney campaign in high regard.All but suspending campaign events fot a few days was a mistake. I would simply have a moment of silence at the start of an event, acknowledge we have one President at a time anf pledge 100% of his support in Obama's fulfilling federal commitmentsavoid red meat one-liners,and take up a collection for the Red Cross, and strike an upbeat, positive, confident note about the future .
As for Gov. Christie, I'm not worried about his appearance with Obama. New Jersey was ground zero for Hurricane Sandy. Christie was an early supporter of Romney and keynote speaker Obama knows . Christie made a significant about being able to reach across the aisle in a blue state; not meeting with and/or being disrespectful to POTUS would have been seen seen as hypocritical and possibly politically damaging.
A couple of interesting notes on polls: Morris does a good job talking about the skew in recent Gray Lady polls here. In 2008 you had a super motivated Dem base and a demoralized GOP base. That's flipped and if you look at multiple Presidential elections and current cross-tabs, the Times' results are biased upward.
Rove had a different take at numbers in a recent WSJ column also available here; he makes a case that incumbents usually have an upper bound of maybe a point above their poll numbers. Thus, using a recent average of 47.2 (the 2 polls I listed above have Obama at 47 exactly) Rove suggests 51-48 Romney, sort of the flip side of the 2004 election.
But could Romney win the popular vote and still lose the election in the electoral college?. Possible but not likely. If he really has a 5 point or so advantage nationwide, it's difficult to believe true battleground states would diverge that far from the mean. I think this is probably more like the 2006 Senate election when the Dems unexpectedly won control of the Senate. I think Romney will win states no one expects , perhaps narrowly (say, New Mexico and/or Oregon, not a specific prediction.)
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
The Carpenters, "For All We Know"
