Be the change that you want to see in the world.
Gandhi
ELECTION EVE
Like last election, I'll probably publish an early edition after I vote tomorrow and a late night one after we know the general election results. ( I saw one report NY may extend its election, but from the Presidential campaign, except for DC, it's probably the most Obama-friendly state.)
We've been waiting 4 years for this election. I'll be frank; I don't like the way the polls have tightened over the past week; I thought we would see more more of a break of undecideds towards Romney. In particular, polls that adjusted for Dem oversampling like Gallup gave shown a tightening race (although polls often tighten near elections). Still, I would rather be holding Romney's cards: he's ahead, but just barely, in the more accurate Gallup and Rasmussen polls.
I've read 4 respected, not red meat, ideological, or partisan conservative voices, Noonan, Rove (probably the smartest political consultant on the planet, whatever you think of him personally), Barnes and Barone, all predicting a Romney victory. I concur; oddly enough, I suspect Romney's campaign is finally catching fire and think he's on a surge not detected by the polls--It's gone from anyone but Obama to pro-Romney; I'n talking about rallies in the tens of thousands, dwarfing Democratic rallies; I don't recall that happening in a losing campaign effort. Somehow his favorable ratings have exceeded Obama's; in part, it's the debates and a strategic error by the Obama campaign to go negative on Romney. I think the American people are tired of Obama's chronic scapegoating and partisanship, his passive leadership, his utter lack of a constructive approach to problem solving. I suspect Noonan is right; there is something in the air, a major upset of sorts. I think Romney is going to win states people don't expect him to win.
I still don't understand why so many Americans want to reelect someone whom has proven utterly incapable of leading a divided government and failed to embrace his own bipartisan commission on deficit reduction. Last year's stalemate on raising the debt ceiling is a classic point: almost all political pundits agree that the GOP will retain control of the House. Anyone voting for a Dem incumbent or novice US Senator must be out of his or her mind: they have failed to pass a budget over hundreds of days running; the only thing Reid does is stonewall passed House reform bills.
But let us go back to Obama for a minute: I don't understand why the Libya 9/11 cover-up and the mismanagement of Hurricane Sandy aren't biting Obama. The Libya situation, when Obama Administration officials, including the President himself in his Rose Garden 9/12 statement, kept knowingly promoting the idea that the terrorist action was triggered by an insensitive film, is one of the biggest cover-ups this side of Watergate. Hurricane Sandy, particularly in New York, seems to be one of the worst handled FEMA fiascoes this side of Katrina (Giuliani's own assessment, e.g., running out of water); Drudge has maintained over a dozen links over the past week: Obama has won points for his "leadership" by photo opp, leaving NY to do a campaign fundraiser in Nevada (just like he left during the BP oil spill crisis to play golf).
The investment emails I've been getting almost universally predict Obama's reelection. A famous newsletter writer, who notably promoted a doomsday prediction for America, not only now is predicting an Obama victory, but predicts a fossil fuel boom will make Obama so popular there will be talk of modifying the Constitution to enable a third term. (I have to think he's writing a satire, but it's in the context of a sales pitch.) He directly compares, Obama to Teddy Roosevelt, a closet progressive, whom gained popularity through an earlier domestic energy boom. I find all of this rather amusing; in fact, the EPA is delaying new anti-fossil regulations until after the election, just like the President is deferring pink slip notifications to defense contractors required already in the context of the federal cliff. These things remind me of the the undoing of recalled former CA Governor Gray Davis.
I don't think I heard a single Romney campaign ad all year in Maryland; I disagree with the strategy of targeting only swing states. I only saw a few token ads for Bongino (see below); incumbent Cardin has run a couple of ads I've seen (typical non-issue incumbent spots, one with a veteran, another on a fishing boat.) A third-party businessman is splitting the anti-Cardin vote.) If Romney loses tomorrow (or even if he wins), I'll write a rant about the clueless Romney campaign over the coming week. I think he's leaving votes and many GOP candidates like Bongino on the table. I think the Romney campaign had a legitimate chance to carry MN, WI, MI, PA and OR from the get-go, and by not putting Obama on the defense early allowed them to bulld ftrewalls in swing states.
I saw two spots over the weekend; I think one of them was from a conservative PAC, very powerful one featuring disillusioned former Obama voters feeling let down. The one I saw from the Obama campaign or related PAC's featured the contemptible Colin Powell basically regurgitating Obama campaign political spin. Let me point out some 500 retired generals and admirals have endorsed Romney, multiple Secretaries of State from Kissinger through Condi Rice have endorsed Romney, and I find it incredulous the Obama campaign would use a guy who made the case for US intervention in Iraq at the UN. What the hell does Colin Powell know about economics? Certainly not as much as nearly 700 economists whom support Romney. I don't know a single independent/moderate whom really cares what Powell thinks. Yes, it would have been nice to hear Powell have enough testicular fortitude to admit he made a mistake in 2008, But hearing Powell repeat Obama's excuses is rather pathetic, something that doesn't fit military professionals I know, whom are up for the responsibility and mission and can't abide excuses.
What about my final prediction? I earlier thought Romney would flip the 2008 election. I think Hurricane Sandy mucked that up, and I think Romney and Ryan missed opportunities to seal the deal in the last 3 debates. I do think Romney is on a mini-surge at just the right time, I think Obama is under 50% approval and his Sandy boost is receding. I think, like Rove, this will be more like 2004. I think the enthusiasm gap will favor Romney; I now think maybe 51-48.5 Romney, Romney will get over 300 electoral votes, and Romney will at least split MN, WI, MI, and PA with an outside chance to sweep. I think that the GOP will win unexpected Senate seats (e.g., 1 or more from among MA, IN, MI, VA, MO and FL), possibly enough to throw Reid out of power. I just have an intuitive feeling that something unexpected is going to happen like the unexpected capture of the Senate by Dems in 2006, not to the Dems' benefit.
Look to tomorrow night's post to see if I have to eat my words, It wouldn't be the first time I've been wrong.
Why Citizens United Protects Our Speech
Through Traditional Legal Entities
Political Humor
This blog is a fan of Remy parody videos (somehow I didn't see the following 2 videos when they were they were initially uploaded). Since Obama has been promoting his crony auto bankruptcy, not to mention a Youtube video for the Benghazi attack, I think they are timely.
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
The Carpenters, "Hurting Each Other". Pure pop magic. Another #2 and #1 adult contemporary. I have't checked the charts, but in pop music, it is almost unparalleled how the Carpenters minted pop classic original hits from 1970-1973. This hit is in the middle of that stretch. Although they continued to chart well after this streak, particularly on the a/c chart, I think the song writing was more hit and miss. Their last top 10 was in 1975, and they only cracked the top 40 once after 1977.
