War is not the best engine for us to resort to;
nature has given us one in our commerce,
which if properly managed,
will be a better instrument for obliging
the interested nations of Europe to treat us with justice.
Thomas Jefferson
Election 2012 Countdown
We have a number of shock polls out-e.g., Politico reports on a Minnesota poll where Romney has taken a minimal lead. Another poll has similarly lean-blue Pennsylvania in a dead heat, yet another shows Romney edging Obama in Michigan. Also, incumbent Dem Senate leads have dropped to within 6 points in a couple of those states.
Axelrod, an Obama campaign consultant, argues the Romney campaign must be in deep trouble, these are signs of desperation, they are going for broke because they "know" they are "losing" Ohio. I think Axelrod is either bluffing or in a state of denial. I've been arguing for some time that Romney should be putting resources in these states and he wasn't at least until recently. No doubt Axelrod would discuss other polls or criticize these polls, but I think what we're seeing is Romney gaining momentum as undecideds start to break towards Romney. And if lean-Dem states are moving towards Romney, what does that tell about the battlegound states. UnskewedPolls has Romney up by 5 and published its final swing state poll which shows Romney getting to 279 with Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia--but even with small sample sizes, they have Romney up by 2 in Michigan and within a rounding error in Pennsylvania and a point away in Wisconsin. Personally I like Romney's chances to run the board if he's within 2 points by tomorrow. I would argue Romney has the momentum
Axelrod can comfort himself that Intrade is giving Obama almost two-thirds chances of winning reelection. However, National Review points out there has been a deterioration in party affiliation under Obama to effectively near parity (by Gallup): the oversampling of Democrats in polls plus Romney's edge among independents suggests Democrats could be in for a long, painful election night. I've been noting some things most people are overlooking: Obama and Biden rallies have been slumping to 4-figures while the Romney ticket rallies often reach 5-figures. There are widespread slumping absentee and early voting numbers over elections and it looks in early voting like Democrats have been largely banking their reliable votes while the GOP is targeting its low propensity voters (meaning Tuesday's turnout itself should be a good day for reliable GOP voters), still, Gallup was reporting an early lead for the GOP overall although Dems were expected to catch up in banked votes by election day. The Obama campaign is insisting their banked percentage is high but this may be true only in selected areas. The final swing state poll has been released by Gallup: 48-48 .If we use the Rove heuristic in last week's WSJ column, we might see a 51-49 Romney final advantage (this might differ from the nation total because oh the concentration of the campaign in swing states. I still think a jump ball election works to a challenger's advantage.
Drudge reports something like 18 newspapers whom endorsed Obama in 2008 have flipped to Romney. I do want to focus on a point made by a relevant Wisconsin paper:
Obama got us out of Iraq. He pressured public schools to reform. He gave the final order that got Osama bin Laden.
Obama failed to embrace his own commission’s bipartisan debt deal. Ryan, serving on the commission, similarly balked at the solid and comprehensive agreement.
But Obama is the president. The buck stops with him. This is now Obama’s economy, even though the GOP shares in the blame for partisan games.First, even though the State Journal ultimately came to the right decision. much of this is pure crap, that due diligence should have corrected:
- No, Obama did NOT get us out of Iraq, that he proactively did something to speed up withdrawal. The most you can say we withdrew from Iraq on Bush's negotiated withdrawal schedule. IN FACT, OBAMA FAILED AT NEGOTIATIONS TO RETAIN A PRESENCE IN IRAQ. I wonder why these guys don't refer to Obama's military interventions, unlike in the case of Bush, without Congressional authorization? Or the fact that Obama has radically expanded drone strikes geographically, spreading collateral damage to innocent lives, perhaps radicalizing them? What about the fact more than half of our fatalities in Afghanistan have occurred under Obama? Perhaps the newspaper should analyze things instead of repackaging talking points.
- He pressured reform? First, education is a state/local responsibility; second, all Obama did was spend money he didn't have with little to show for it in terms of achievement, graduation rates, etc.
- He reportedly previously aborted the UBL mission 3 times for political considerations. He also worsened relations with Pakistan. And al Qaeda survives despite the killing. Obama traced the whereabouts of UBL using intelligence gathered under Bush.
- Ryan's vote against Simpson-Bowles (he has mentioned this repeatedly) was because it did not deal honestly with ObamaCare funding, not because of the general nature of the plan. But the paper fails to note Obama's nominees voted against and most Republicans, especially hard-to-get GOP senators, on the committee voted for it, and a simple majority carried it
THUMBS DOWN!
From a research standpoint, I'm a methodology guy: I believe in well-developed, validated measures (e,g., achievement tests) and the collection of baseline data. Teacher unions have generally opposed testing (especially tied to compensation) for reasons similar to the cited article, but subjective crony evaluations (e.g., peer or principal) are unreliable/invalid. Do some unethical teachers try to game the system, teach to the test? Of course--standardized testing requires strong internal controls. Do the teacher unions do an adequate job of self-policing? Clearly not.
But this isn't about teachers; it's about improving earlier, more precise, comprehensive, reliable diagnosis of learning problems when it is easier and cheaper to remedy them before becoming learning failures. All of this goes for naught with counterproductive policies like social promotion.
The progressive public school monopoly badly needs competition, not throwing yet more money on staffing, educational fads and boutique solutions, none of which explain comparatively better educational performance of students from other countries, with larger classes, lower resources, etc.
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
The Carpenters, "Bless the Beasts and the Children." I sometimes disagree with the Oscars for best song; for example, I think Diana Ross was robbed with respect to Theme from Mahogany. as much as I like the catchy Shaft theme, there's no way it was in the same league as the brilliant signature Carpenters' movie song, one of my all-time favorite songs.
