As a libertarian I feel like I'm in a vortex, not unlike the 2008 economic tsunami. The GOP under Trump is calling for trillions in spending Keynesian relief and even corporate bailouts; the Dems are emphasizing the social welfare net (especially mandates for paid leave, unemployment, etc.), not to mention hundreds of billions in state bailout money. Trump is being pressured, even by commiecrats like AOC, to utilize the Korea-era Defense Production Act, for the coronavirus crisis; personally, I believe this act is not only unconstitutional but not even relevant to public health context. I would think the free market provides an intrinsic incentive through higher prices to incentivize suppliers. But I'm sure under the current panic the Congress would pass any applicable extension and Trump would sign it into law. The Justice Department is asking for discretion for indefinite detentions, sort of Lincoln's unconstitutional approach to domestic opposition. States, from California to New York, have engaged in unprecedented shutdowns of economic activity; even Maryland (where I currently reside), with GOP Gov. Hogan, is ordering a shutdown of all "non-essential'' businesses. My own retirement savings have dropped by over a third over the past 2 weeks.
So how does this play out in November? It's difficult to say, because we're highly uncharted water. I don't want to simply rewrite my recent Facebook post (below). There are multiple ways that this could play out, I recently published a tweet to the effect a lot depends on the duration: Trump's best hope is a short, sweet shutdown; I could easily see the Trump campaign stealing Reagan's "It's morning in America" reelection line, arguing Trump's leadership on an unprecedented challenge in American history. The Dems, of course, will argue about Trump's initial sluggish response, the fact he had eliminated the pandemic response unit a couple of years back, and so forth. Similarly, the current bear market on Wall Street hurts, but if and when the market sees a clear bottom and the economy stabilizing, we could see a significant recovery which would help Trump claim we're moving in the right direction.
On paper, recessions (or worse) favor the Dems and their signature defense of the social welfare net. To a large extent, Trump has mitigated that, refusing to discuss touching entitlements (although he inexplicably suggested cuts to programs in a recent townhall). I also think ObamaCare and Medicare for All hurts the Dems' core union constituency.
I think Biden, the likely Dem nominee, with a current 7-point lead over Trump in the polls, is in a strong position. He lacks Clinton's negatives and wins back disaffected blue-collar workers, at least in Michigan and Pennsylvania. He will retain all of Hillary Clinton's states and poses a strong threat in multiple Trump 2016 states, including FL, NC, AZ, GA, maybe even TX.
But to a large extent, the election is beyond Biden's control. True, Biden stands to gain from any Trump mistakes in the interim or a long, slow crisis/recovery; at the same time, the American people have a tendency to back leadership in a crisis, e.g., Bush 41 after the Gulf War and Bush 43 after 9/11. I've been tie or net job approval ratings from the first time since Trump's election, and recent polls show a plurality favoring Trump's handling of the COVID-19 crisis. I still think there's a high probability of negative news to come before the election, which should help Biden, and note Bush 41 still defeated for reelection despite an improving economy.
But I would rather be holding Biden's cards at this point. I would like his chances better if he was showing more of a double-digit lead at this point. Plus, I would be concerned that Biden has been pushed to left-of-center by Comrade Bernie, giving Trump an opening. I may revisit this topic in a few months as the nominations are secured and the crisis stabilizes.
Here is a related post I wrote on Facebook:
Saving you a mouse click:
I don't usually comment on politics on Facebook (I do on my Twitter feed raguillem and my political blog rguillem.blogspot.com.) I occasionally republish items from my group feeds on FB. If you didn't know, I was a nominal Republican since I left the Democratic Party as an alienated pro-life conservative in the mid-1980's. I started my transition to a libertarian during the George W. Bush Administration and finalized during the Obama Administration. I've mostly followed 3 GOP politicians, Rand Paul, Tom Massie and Justin Amash (who turned independent last July 4). Trump alienated me from the very start; I've always been pro-immigration and for the free market. And I never liked Trump personally, who always came across as a snake oil salesman. When Trump clinched the nomination in 2016 (I initially supported Rand Paul, who dropped out before SC, and then Ted Cruz), I left the GOP. SC did not recognize the Libertarian Party, but Arizona did, and Maryland when I moved back, although MD sent me a notice MD no longer recognizes the LP.
I expect to support Jacob Hornberger (originally from Laredo) this fall for POTUS. I went to high school in Laredo with a Charles Hornberger, who may be related (I haven't found information about Jacob's family).
What sparked this post is one of my BILs decided to stir the pot by arguing impeachment money should have been used to fight coronavirus or something stupid like that. I fully supported the impeachment and conviction of Trump on the basis of the evidence. I'm not going to reargue the case here; I've written about it in my blog. Trump abused his foreign relations authority trying to extort the UKraine government to open a politically damaging investigation into political rival Biden, using foreign aid money signed into law. Pure and simple, this was both illegal and unconstitutional. Note that I'm not a supporter of Biden (but he's better than Comrade Bernie).
I responded with a terse comment to my BIL. One of his Trumpkin friends counterattacked. The guy was an idiot and not versed on the facts; he's probably one of those morons who listen to Sean Hannity. He seemed to regard me as a "liberal" (well, I'm a classical liberal, but not the "social liberal" most people understand by the term) and a closet Biden supporter, trolling me, arguing Trump was going to trounce Biden this fall.
So I want to briefly discuss this, realizing Jacob probably won't be elected this fall. I can see the election playing out in two ways. The conventional wisdom is that recessions are reelection killers, re: Carter and Bush 41. We'll probably see a contraction this quarter, for sure next quarter. Unemployment is skyrocketing. The stock market is down over a third this month, a bear market. I wrote on Twitter several times before the coronavirus crisis that Trump needed a booming economy to win reelection this fall. That's for sure not going to be the case.
The second way I can see this playing out is Trump pivoting to the rally behind the chief, adapting to FDR's "don't change the POTUS in the middle of a war" strategy, stoking uncertainty in a change of POTUS. We know Bush 41's popularity was sky-high after the first Gulf War and Bush 43's after 9/11. Leftists went nuts on Twitter after Trump's poll numbers on coronavirus flipped/improved in the latest poll.
I'm undecided as to how this plays out. I need more data. But I think the shorter the pandemic, the quicker the return to normalcy is Trump's best case scenario. (Bush 43's numbers were initially good after Iraq War 2, but dropped with our continued engagement.) I don't think that's likely. I also don't think the optics are good for Trump in general. There will be a public post-audit, and Trump's reorganizing the pandemic response team as a cost-saving move is just toxic. Trump also sucks at the role as Counselor-in-Chief; he doesn't come across as a calm, reassuring, empathetic sort of person that people turn to in a crisis. Biden comes across as more likable and won't have to defend his record on coronavirus, the economic collapse, etc.; I would much rather play with the cards he's holding.
At the current time, the odds favor Biden. Trump won in 2016 with narrow wins in 3 states--WI, PA, MI. The latter two favor Biden. Trump is in danger of losing NC, GA, FL, AZ, and possibly even TX. More Dems will go to the polls (Biden doesn't have Clinton's negatives). Lots of things can change over the next 8 months, but any Trumpkins hoping for a replay of 2016 are going to be like the commiecrats who hoped Comrade Bernie would do better than the polls in Michigan showed against Biden vs. his surprise win over Clinton in 2016.
