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Thursday, November 10, 2016

Post #3008 M

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(relative). I didn't know this! So far, this is looking like 2000 where the Democrat got the popular vote, but not electoral college to win. That's why Gore and Clinton lost, and W and Trump are/will be president. Fascinating video!

The comparison is not comparable. In 2000, the Florida race was called early for Gore, and when Gore lost Florida, the deciding electoral votes, he refused to accept subsequent machine recounts confirming Bush's election and tried to reverse outcomes by manipulative recounts of disqualified ballots in Democrat-controlled precincts, hoping to mine enough votes to reverse the outcome, which the courts rightly decided was blatantly unconstitutional. The Gore court challenge was also aimed at preventing the participation of Florida's electors at the college. (This would have probably resulted in the election being decided in the House of Representatives.)

For all practical purposes, Gore and Clinton tied their opponents in the popular vote, neither receiving a majority, both under 50%. Clinton's lead (with several votes still uncounted) is roughly 200,000 out of nearly 120M votes. In many voting systems, there would be a runoff between the top 2 finishers. It is still possible, based on voter distribution, for a candidate to win a majority of voters but lose a majority of electoral votes, e.g., disproportionate voting in big states. But our federal system is not really based on universal equal votes. For example, your vote has more of an impact in sparsely populated Alaska than in California.

The popular vote distorts the outcome of states. For example, in many states like Illinois and Nevada (which went for Clinton), the big urban areas traditionally stockpile votes to offset more conservative rural areas of the state. I looked, for example, at Wisconsin (which went for Trump): you see a huge red map with only a couple of blue spots. If we went by the popular vote, we would see a different type of politics, with candidates pandering for the large urban area votes at the expense of rural areas. Oddly enough, Jefferson, who founded the Democratic Party, openly resisted the influence of urban-dominated New England.

For this election, I think there are 3 states still undecided, with Trump leading in MI and AZ and Clinton in NH. Thus, assuming the leads hold, Clinton gets 232 and Trump 306. This is not the case where 1 state makes the difference; Clinton only won 4 states outside the Northeast/mid-Atlantic, West Coast/NV and Hawaii.

(relative). America is a system of checks and balances. If your candidate won or didn't win, please remember that they can't have ultimate power to do their will. Congress and the Supreme Court will make sure that America doesn't change too radically.
This extreme change happened in 2008 with Obama, and some were thrilled. Now, we see just as radical a change in the opposite direction in response 8 years later. Those who loved W, but not Obama, survived the last 8 years. We will survive these next 4, maybe 8 years, for better or worse with Donald Trump as president.
If you don't like the results of this election, pray. If you are happy, pray. God is in control. America needs our prayers. We need to unite as Americans, no longer Democrats and Republicans.
Pray for our country. May God's will be done.
Actually, the comparison is invalid here. The 2008 election bolstered an existing Democratic-controlled Congress, to the point that the Democrats (with Specter's party change) held a filibuster-proof Senate majority. In 2016, the GOP Senate majority has shrunk to maybe 52 seats (with Louisiana runoff on Dec. 10), with the Dems flipping IL and NH seats. So this Congress is more like what Bush had with his first election. The Democrats will likely reverse the pattern after 2010, with the Dems filibustering significant reforms and Trump using executive orders. The GOP will probably have to make concessions on major pieces of legislation and/or make modest changes through the filibuster-proof budget resolution process.

(National Review). How long is "never"?
I am an open proud #NeverTrump er, and I won't be a Ryan or McConnell, trying to square the circle of supporting a Big Government liberal's agenda. I didn't compromise my pro-liberty political principles. I predict many true libertarian-conservatives will have the opportunity to point out Trump's departure from principle over the coming 4 years, and I will be one of the few who can claim they never supported Clinton or Trump.

(Mises Institute). Matthew McCaffrey: We are confident claiming that, true to his character, Mises would firmly defend free trade and peace against all their opponents on the left and right.
Agreed. In fact, no libertarian/conservative could consistently vote for Trump's embrace of authoritarianism, protectionism, and Know Nothing xenophobia.
NAFTA and TPP are not free trade and they compromise American sovereignty. In the age of regulatory, defense, labor and other inequalities, the US is paying a defacto tariff negating the opportunity for truly "free" trade.
Don' t be a pseudo-libertarian! All trade pacts are mercantilistic in nature, of course. But the trade pacts are a clear pro-consumer advance over the status quo. When you oppose foreign producer access to our markets, you are de facto rationalizing existing protectionism, which is anti-market.

No pro-liberty person would ever make a nationalist appeal, which is purely Trumpkin rubbish. If progressive policies are not competitive, the answer is not to impose American policies on foreign producers but to change anti-market policies. The OP is an economic illiterate.

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