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Friday, December 12, 2014

Joe Klein and Obama's Leadership Shortage

Yes, this refers to a column penned by Klein nearly two months ago. (As familiar readers know, I have done a handful or so critical reviews of "progressive" columnists, including Klein; I got a complimentary Time subscription when my years-prepaid US News subscription went digital, and like certain podcasts, my Time issues go into backlog mode.) You might think that I find a lot to agree with in a piece criticizing Obama's leadership, but the devil is in the details: consider the subtitle: "His policies are fine. But the President is often a prisoner of his instincts."

It's hard to know where to start with Klein's clueless analysis, but one might begin with his shoddy comparison of Carter vs. Reagan, where he basically was dismissive of Reagan's policies, claiming the latter's were merely extensions of the former's. I'm not going into Klein's confounding of monetary with fiscal policies, the latter, including tax rates, quite different; but note that inflation hit its peak in 1981 and Fed interest rates did the same, resulting in the 1981-1982 recession (the worst since the Depression) on Reagan's watch. Klein wants to credit Carter for picking Volcker in the summer of 1979, well into the third year of his Presidency. Let's point out that Carter had picked Miller, not Volcker, to chair the Fed in 1978, Volcker had been a gradualist during his tenure at the NY Fed, and Carter then sacked Treasury Secretary Blumenthal, who had been pushing the Fed to go big on rates, in favor of Miller. When a 2-point increase in the Fed's fund rate to 9% in the fall of 1978 barely made inflation blink, Volcker started sounding an alarm, but outside of his minority position, the rest of the Fed argued the second (full employment) mandate required a gradualist approach. And let's not forget Volcker was very unpopular during the recession, with many Congressmen threatening impeachment. The idea that Carter was some sound money advocate is revisionist nonsense--he started out like Gerald Ford flirting with economically illiterate price controls and gave a noted speech where he openly confessed he didn't know what to do and never raised the concept of sound money. Laffer also credits Reagan's tax cuts, pro-trade policies, and regulatory restraint with the 1980's economic prosperity.

Klein's apologist defense of Obama borders on the ludicrous. Consider his take on Obama's policy failures on Iraq and the hyped War on Terror: "But who hasn’t made an Iraq mistake over the past decade?...  Obama has stood as a bulwark against the blundering simplicity of his critics..., the irrationalities of both parties." Let's talk about Obama's hypocritical deviations from his principled stands as a senator and Presidential candidate on Gitmo, against the Patriot Act, against Bush's use of executive orders, against abuse of authority as Commander-in-Chief... His foreign policy is hardly "moderate"; he continues to insist he doesn't need Congressional authorization, he authorizes the killing of certain American citizens overseas without due  process; he has bombed at least 7 countries, with most not in a declared state of war, he thinks that he can reuse 2001 and 2002 resolutions which clearly don't apply to current circumstances. He's been meddling in the affairs of Syria, Egypt, and Libya in what can best be described as seat of the pants foreign policy.
 He really did pull us out of a probable depression with an effective stimulus package; the economy continues to wheeze, but it wheezes forward. He really did make history by producing a universal health care plan that will not be repealed but will be reformed over time. The nonstop Republican critique that these programs were “disasters” has been rendered ridiculous. (In Kentucky, Mitch McConnell had to pull a Mark Pryor on that state’s very successful version of Obama’s plan.) The President has been sane and relatively moderate in his selection of Supreme Court Justices. His proposed job-growth policies would probably work, if given a chance by the Republicans.
Bullshit! The first statement is easily disproved; the recession ended 5 months into Obama's first term; and very little of that stimulus had been spent within the first 6 months of passage, a few weeks into that first term, and the stimulus was mostly a boondoggle to Democrat special interests like state payrolls, green energy and public teacher unions, a mere drop in the bucket of a $15T economy; in fact, Obama has enjoyed near-zero interest rates his whole Presidency, unprecedented in American history; this is one of the most jobless recoveries in American history, with the lowest labor force  participation rates in decades, with declining household income and net worth. As to ObamaCare, many policyholders have been forced into higher-premium, higher-deductible plans, it's been a disaster for those out of work and for part-timers reduced to hours beneath qualifying thresholds; of course, for those heavily subsidized, it's an easy enrollment, but what I've seen is enrollments trailing expectations and high attrition rates for nonpayment of premiums. This monstrosity is already adding to the deficit, blowing past projections, like the other similarly unsustainable, mismanaged, failed federal healthcare programs. Finally, the federal government can do very little to grow jobs; in fact, it worsens things by establishing/increasing minimum wage or mandated benefits. What it can do is to stop competing with the private sector for investment dollars, stop taxing interest, investment and income, dial back the regulatory burden...

But Klein's point has more to do with his leadership style; he seems to think Obama lacks the temperament of the happy warrior, the drive to carry forward without being bogged down by his political opponents and media critics. What Klein doesn't point out is that Obama entered the White House without public administrative experience and has avoided political compromise at all costs; when Scott Brown was elected to the Senate as filibuster-sustaining vote #41, rather than risk reopening legislation with GOP input, he forced the corrupt Senate bill down the House's throat--and ended up sacrificing his House majority permanently. His response to losing his second big midterm was defiantly noting he held the veto and the right to write executive orders. He routinely makes excuses and attacks his opposition and certain media. In essence, he is reaping a reward of his own making; it's one based on hubris and arrogance.