First, let me acknowledge that I am not a political pundit. I am a numbers junkie, whether we are talking research statistics, blog statistics or political polls. With respect to the latter, I have an email subscription to Rasmussen and I regularly visit Gallup, RealClearPolirics and fivethirtyeight.com (among other things).
I was surprised by the results of 2016. I will say that I never did think Clinton had put Trump away; I did know she had high unfavorables, it was a change election year, I had seen Jeb Bush's campaign flounder against Trump's unorthodox candidacy But if you look at the last RCP polls going into the election, Clinton had a 3-point composite lead, close to a statistical tie. I did not foresee Trump's ability to break the blue wall in the Rust Belt--WI, PA, and MI, in particular, his variation of Reagan Democrats, alienated by progressive Dem leadership with meager economic growth under Obama. Not to mention the fact that party division (Clinton vs. Sanders) may have contributed to lower-than-expected turnout. No doubt Trump's alleged experience as a job creator, pledge not to touch social welfare programs, and labor protectionism (immigration and trade) helped close the sale. Personally if I were a blue-collar worker, I would be highly skeptical that a plutocrat politician would represent my economic interests, but proof is in the pudding.
Now I think most Trumpkins are in a state of denial based on the unexpected 2016, thinking that there's a systematic bias in polling results involving Trump. Let's be clear: Trump will have the advantage of incumbency and barring a recession breaking out over the coming year, a robust economy would be a plus for his reelection. Trump has a highly loyal (90% GOP approval) base. and the only candidate who seems to get a double-digit advantage against Trump is Biden. With a fairly persistent approval in the mid-40's, Trump seems to have a stable but uphill starting position.
But this Trumpkin confidence that lightning can strike twice in 2020 appears to be a state of denial. In most approval polls, Trump has never surpassed his 46% share of the national vote. Despite a big tax cut and a robust economy, Trump, like Obama, lost party control of the House of Representatives in mid-terms, a clear referendum on Trump. Trump's support for senators was almost a kiss of death, his Senate endorsements prominently failing in deep red Alabama and West Virginia, among other states. The perpetually negative ObamaCare actually turned positive over his failed repeal and replace effort.
I always expected that Trump would tone things down and take on a more Presidential demeanor maybe cut some deals with Dems and put the risk of regime change on the voter. That may happen still, but it doesn't likely.
I would be a fool to try to predict what will happen in 18 months. Let's flesh out a couple of scenarios:
- A market meltdown, not likely, but 10-year economic expansions are historically long. Trump's tariffs may trigger a global recession. Stagflation and recession killed Carter's and Bush 41's reelections.Trump's primary selling point is a robust economy. If it fails, he loses, and it's not even close.
- A crowded Dem field could trigger disunity between the left and center wings of the party. If so, Trump could exploit the schism with a divide-and-conquer strategy. Right now Biden holds a strong hand, and chances are the leftists are more anti-Trump and would close ranks. But Biden is a walking gaffe machine, and he may mishandle the inevitable attacks from the left wing of the party. Biden has to find a way of accommodating the left wing without exposing himself from a center-right Trump attack.
But here are some inconvenient facts for Trump:
- There's the high likelihood that he has turned off a number of original supporters who will not vote for him again. Many of them are repulsed by his non-presidential personal style; others voted more against Hillary Clinton and may find other, more likable Democrats, like Joe Biden, as acceptable, others (e.g., some libertarians) feel that he flip-flopped on key issues, like an America First foreign policy; or haven't delivered on key issues like immigration or healthcare, or may have found themselves victimized by his policies (e.g., farmers losing Chinese customers in response to Trump's tariff war. I've seen a lot of them on the Internet but it's difficult to validate or determine the nature and extent, plus it doesn't mean that the Democrat nominee will get their votes: it could be they sit out the election or vote for a third-party candidate, possibly Justin Amash.
- Trump has lost a significant portion of the GOP base; George Will, I and others left the GOP over the nomination of Trump, There are a number of reasons: for example, I am a fiscal hawk, a foreign policy dove, pro-immigration and free market; I loathe his faux populism, his impulsive decision style (e.g., the recognition of Jerusalem) and his embrace of the imperial presidency. I don't necessarily believe others oppose him for the same reasons, but for example some senators like Sasse and Romney have openly criticized Trump, Bush Republicans, and prominent conservative publications like National Review or the Weekly Standard. Obviously the Never Trump movement never succeeded in 2016, but most Republicans predated Trump, and Trump had a difficult time trying to dictate his agenda in the last session of Congress. Most may be unwilling to do the politically suicidal step of openly opposing Trump, but the fact that Trump has vetoed multiple bills passing through a GOP-controlled Senate speaks volumes: a POTUS with weak approval numbers will get pushback even from his own party. Recall George W. Bush got rebuked by House conservatives over unpaid Medicare expansion and TARP. Again, I don't predict the nature or extent of the Trump resistance, but I think it's larger than most people suspect. It doesn't mean they vote Democrat, but maybe they don't vote or vote for Amash.
- Trump is losing independent support. I've seen independents with 31-39% approval ratings. With registered Dems outnumbering registered Republicans, Trump needs to dominate this category. But Trump shows no interest or ability to reach beyond his partisan base. Whereas everything depends on what happens over the next 18 months, including Trump's election opponents, it's possible Trump's approval numbers will improve, but it's difficult to turnaround approval numbers from the 30's. His likely response is to launch a negative campaign against his competitor, try to reduce him to a Hillary Clinton type. But when he lost the House last fall, it was like a canary in the coal mine. And he's paid the price with endless investigations.
I can't rule out his stroke of political genius that steamrolled a vastly more qualified GOP field in 2016 and upset a favored Hillary Clinton may strike lightning twice. But he's now a Washington insider, not an outsider, and he has a record to defend. He still hasn't launched his reelection bid yet. Maybe he'll do or say something which will alter my assessment. But right now, he's playing a losing hand.
