The Independent Voter
Trump thinks it's obvious he should be man of the year. There was a time I seriously considered it, at least when it looked like a breakthrough summit with Kim Jung-Un might lead to a formal peace treaty, denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, perhaps even reunification, in the late spring, although the euphoria seems to have worn off, with North Korea recently complaining about joint US-South Korean exercises.
Time Magazine isn't much better, with Pelosi, unemployed quarterback Kaepernick, US Open meltdown runner-up Serena Williams, and a variety of other celebrities. To some, Pelosi deserves the honor given what currently appears to be a 38-seat gain to end the House's 8-year Dem exodus during GOP control, but the fact is that many House seats converted were in areas Clinton won in 2016, Trump had abysmal job approval ratings, and mid-terms generally result in gains by the opposition party. A 38-seat swing is nontrivial but hardly as epic as the 2010 mid-terms.
Were there other candidates under consideration? Yes, Big Tech, including social media. This is particularly pertinent to those of us with conservative/libertarian views (I myself have found myself temporarily suspended twice over the past year.)
I would include myself as one of the independent voters, although my vote didn't count except for the reelection of incumbent Gov. Hogan (R-MD). Trump will insist to anyone who is receptive to his nonsense that the reason the GOP lost the House is because the losing candidates weren't Trumpian enough. Nope; that's absurd hubris. In fact, liberty Republicans Amash and Massey, both noted Trump critics, won their districts by double-digits, and the Trumpkin who primaried liberty Congressman Mark Sanford found herself losing the historical GOP-held seat.
That the Democrats had been counting the days since losing both Congress and the White House in 2016 is an understatement. There is also evidence that the GOP were motivated by Dem missteps like the attack on Justice Kavanaugh.
But Trump made a strategic error in crafting an agenda that focused on his party's narrow control of Congress. And he has been high maintenance, constantly stirring the pot (including his seeming tolerance or appeasement of white nationalists, e.g., the Charlottesville, VA murder), attacking judges, his own party's legislators, the Mueller probe, "fake news", NFL protesters, and 101 other things. The Republicans are justifiably concerned over their loss of support in suburbia.
Trump, like it or not, even with the advantage of incumbency, is facing a difficult reelection battle. He was all but shut out in key states providing him a narrow victory in 2016: PA, MI, WI. He lost key Senate seats he was vested in, in states he won in blowouts in 2016, including WV and MT. By some accounts his approval among independents is around 31%.
It's always possible that the Democrats could fritter away 2020 by nominating a leftist nominee, but I've seen some polls putting Biden in the lead. Biden would likely take away states from the Trump coalition.
While party memberships have eroded in each party, independents now become the deciders, and Trump will need to rebuild their confidence if he hopes to win in 2020.
