To be able to practice five things everywhere under heaven constitutes perfect virtue...
- gravity
- generosity of soul
- sincerity
- earnestness, and
- kindness.
Nobel Peace Prize Goes to EU? Thumbs DOWN!
I don't think George W. Bush will ever get acknowledged for helping arrest the AIDS epidemic in Africa, and Bill Clinton is probably trying to figure out why he is the odd Democrat out with both Gore and Obama winners
Facts Dems Don't want the Middle Class to Know
Their Government
Things That Make DEMagogues go 'Shush!'
From CBO, "THE 2012 LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS FOR SOCIAL SECURITY: ADDITIONAL INFORMATION", p.21 (HT: Bruce Kasting)
However, for people born in the 1940s or later who have household earnings in the second quintile or above, the present value of taxes will be, on average, more than the present value of scheduled benefits. Also, taxes are projected to be insufficient to pay for scheduled benefits, so benefit-to-tax ratios for payable benefits generally will be lower than for scheduled benefits.For the benefit of those who haven't had a finance course, $1 today is worth more than a dollar in the future: you could invest and earn dividends or interest on that money, there's inflation, etc.. To determine the value of future pension payments you have to do apples to apples comparison in today's dollars. What the highlighted line says is effectively if you are at least in the top 80% of income (i.e., including the lower middle class) you (and your employer on your behalf (today, not including the 2 point payroll tax cut, 12.2%) of up to an inflation-adjusted income ceiling) will not break even on what was put into social security. The next statement means if social security is not fixed you will only receive a fraction of your promised check in the future in the 2030's. Go back to the first debate, when Obama was in a state of denial that social security had an issue. In fact, with many jobless people in their 60's opting for early retirement and lower payroll tax collection in this jobless recovery, the social security program is already dipping into reserves.
New JOTY Nominee: Joe Biden
Biden's childish behavior in last night's debate materially disqualified himself as lacking the necessary character suitable for a position a heartbeat from the Presidency. Apparently I'm not the only conservative to come to this decision. I stumbled upon this quote from Patriot Post after I already started this segment:
Thursday night's debate couldn't have contrasted two more different candidates. Paul Ryan, the respectful, serious and earnest policy wonk, against Joe Biden, who behaved like a drunken clown and a jerk and paid due homage to the mascot of the Democrat Party -- the Jackass
Yet on style, whether the subject was the terrorist attack on our Libyan embassy, the ailing economy or abortion, Biden smiled, laughed, sneered, rolled his eyes and strategically interrupted Ryan every time the congressman hit his stride on an answer. And if it wasn't Biden interrupting, it was Raddatz.
Biden is obviously a disciple of Saul Alinksy, who in his "Rules for Radicals," Rule No. 5, said, "Ridicule is man's most potent weapon. It is almost impossible to counterattack ridicule. Also it infuriates the opposition, who then react to your advantage."I discuss the unconscionable Raddatz below in my potpourri segment below. I will simply point out in a real debate a legitimate opponent doesn't have to resort to schoolyard bully behavior.
One note in particular:when Ryan pointed out that reduced tax bracket rates broadened the tax base {i.e. more tax revenue from economic growth (which happened under Harding/Coolidge, Truman, JFK/LBJ, Reagan and Bush)), Biden initially responded to the mention of JFK (I embedded a relevant JFK tax cut video a few weeks back) by trying to reprise the apocryphal Bentsen putdown of Quayle, a deliberate cheap shot which might rally the base but only impresses the feeble-minded. Both Biden and Raddatz lack a basic understanding of economic concepts.
The True Measure of Obamanomics
Labor force participation rate over time, Courtesy of Mankiw:
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| Couresy of Mankiw |
Mankiw has a discussion describing the discrepancy between the twin surveys (establishment/company) and household. There are a couple of ways the numbers can differ, e.g.,people with multiple part-time jobs from surveyed firms can be double-counted, and others, not appearing on payrolls, e.g., independent subcontractors, may be omitted.
I don't doubt there can be discrepancies but the idea that hundreds of thousands of part-time self-employment jobs happened to surge resulting in the largest unemployment rate drops in decades in an anemic growth economy less than 2 months before a general election at the same time time the establishment numbers were on an 8.2% track is simply not credible.
Breitbart.com noted Labor Secretary Solis misleadingly tried to claim summer adjusted jobs came from the private (vs. public) sector. As I published earlier I think we are dealing with unpublished methodology changes--the only ethical thing is to present apples to apples statistics, which the administration is not providing--which is lying to or at least misleading the American people.
Political Potpourri
- The Abysmal Martha Raddatz.
Even the liberal Gray Lady noted Biden's boorish, childish behavior:
Will his laughing, eye-rolling and interrupting be seen as too pushy, too aggressive, too disrespectful?
Democrats will certainly argue that is the worst kind of political analysis – style over substance. But as Al Gore can certainly attest, that often is the way debates are judged. And Republicans will surely push that line in the hours ahead.No, Biden did not win the debate on substance--while Ryan respectfully let Biden get his talking points in uninterrupted , which were well-rehearsed which no doubt made the base happy, what Biden did was childishly filibuster Ryan's responses, not unlike that uncouth piece of work Debbie Wasserman-Schultz. So he couldn't get his thoughts together for the audience. If I had been Ryan, I would have called Raddatz out on failing to keep the old man quiet during his 2 minutes and restart the clock--maybe even threaten to walk out on the stacked deck against me.
This reminded me of an incident when as a doctoral student I was taking a systems analysis course under a well-known MIS academic. One of the course requirements was to do a group project. A couple of Asian Indian students, possibly MIS minors, solicited me for their group, which I did on the condition I write the final paper, which they accepted. (I am a great writer, and my grade was at risk in my major field.) Long story short, we were presenting something on a dated IBM methodology--it may have been assigned or selected from a short list. At some point the Indians had located some transparent, over-the-top IBM marketing hype of the methodology they wanted to cite verbatim in the presentation and the final paper. Ultimately the majority of the group sided with the Indians based on the fact it was their group. (Ironically one of the female members, maybe the only one, must have talked to an office mate later, because he suggested I should ask her out. Not a chance in hell.) I went to the professor whom mishandled the situation, but eventually agreed to let me present and write separately. But she made an amateurishly bad decision to let the group present before me. Keep in mind they had already seen my presentation.
My presentation was a very unique take referencing a famous stage growth model from Richard Nolan: there was no obvious connection. So I'm forced to sit through their presentation where they not only plagiarized IBM marketing literature--they plagiarized my presentation. (Biden knows all about plagiarism.) They took seats in the front row after their presentation, and I'm left with re presenting my own material. The professor knew what was going on and did nothing to stop it. During the whole presentation those classmates were deliberately sabotaging my presentation, distracting me and the rest of the class: loudly talking, laughing, pulling now what I'll probably now refer to as a Joe Biden. I complained to the professor after class, and she tersely responded by saying she knew what was going on and thought I would be mollified with a high grade on my presentation. I have my teacher's voice; no one would dare do that in my own class. (I have my grade book and drop slips)
It wasn't just a case of "All I Really Need to Know I Learned in Kindergarten", these guys, like Joe Biden, didn't even learn what Robert Fulghum learned in kindergarten. (Maybe teacher union kindergarten teachers are at fault.) Maybe Biden didn't get his afternoon nap.
However, as Gainor points out,
The 2012 vice presidential debate was sometimes a 2-on-1 fight, with Biden and moderator Martha Raddatz both interrupting Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan repeatedly. It was hard to top Biden’s obnoxious tone, though. The Washington Examiner quoted the RNC’s JoePounder saying “Biden interrupted 82 times during the entire debate.” To those watching on television, that seemed like a low number.
Raddatz followed the Biden lead though – interrupting the debaters 50 times. She leaned heavily on Ryan, interrupting him 31 times, 12 more than the 19 times she cut off Biden. She also took a liberal tone on abortion and let Biden control the debate tone by never shutting up. He led Ryan on time by 1 minute 20 seconds, 41:32 to 40:12, but it was doubtful thatt he debate clock could track every Bidenism. CNN’s Anderson Cooper said Biden managed to “continually inject himself” into Ryan’s comments.It was also the nature of the interjections: for example, at one point, she stupidly asks Biden what he meant by a "bunch of stuff"--unless this was a roundabout way of telling Biden to stop the disrespect--if so, it went over Biden's head. I don't use the expression but even a dimwit knew from context that Biden was saying that Ryan was full of crap.
On the other hand, Ms. Raddatz was clearly biased in her approach. no questions about Obama's broken promises, the doubling of the publicly-held national debt, the failure of the White House and Senate Dems to put forth a credible budget, the administration's cover up of the Benghazi terrorist attack: instead, Raddatz fed Ryan questions straight from progressive Dem talking points: the so-called war on women (abortion) and the question regarding the math of Defense increases and Romney's fiscal reform proposals. It's not so much the legitimacy of questioning the reform, but the broader issue is uncontrolled federal spending, unsustainable deficits and entitlements and the lack of Presidential leadership instead of class warfare policies.
- The Polls. Intrade now rates Obama's chances under 60%; the momentum is with Romney despite the suspicious official unemployment drop (see above) which has boosted his approval rates at near 50. What I've noted with absolute fascination is Obama's unfavorables are rising, net favorables in single-digits. He has to be very careful in Tuesday night's debate. If he pulls a Joe Biden, he's done--the smirks during round 1 didn't help. Bur RCP's polls show Romney ahead in 3 of 4 national polls, the other a tie. he's now got leads in multiple swing states and within the margin of error; notably even reliable Dem California and Massachusetts are within 15 points. Drudge shows nearly 40 states in play for Romney. The Senate is more problematic; I find it odd McCaskill is running a rape victim ad against Akin; that's a heavy handed tactic that could easily backfire and smacks of desperation. If I'm Akin, I'm hitting McCaskill on ObamaCare and the economy. In the RCP average he's within 3 points.
In the Tuesday debate, Romney should hold his own. I would go big--ask for a reform mandate and a GOP Senate, hit Obama on an incoherent foreign policy and the administration's screw-up over the terrorist attack in Benghazi, Obama will try to claim credit for the last suspicious jobs report. Romney needs some passing volleys as Obama breaks for the net. Point out a lame-duck Obama means another 4 years of partisan gridlock as usual; express an openness to use Simpson-Bowles as a baseline for bipartisan discussion.
Statism, Socialism and Fascism
Musical Interlude: my Favorite Groups
Four Tops, "Ask the Lonely"
