The nine most terrifying words in the English language are,
'I'm from the government and I'm here to help.'
Ronald Reagan
Irritating Talking Points
I'm not running Romney's campaign, but I'm at a loss to explain the fact I haven't seen a single Romney ad on cable in Maryland even before the conventions.I do remember seeing a couple of spots of people not voting again for Obama. But I've seen dozens of Obama spots. This blog predicted Obama would go negative, I knew Romney'a selection of Paul Ryan as VP was a Dem wet dream come true--the Dems picked up a few special elections fear-mongering on Medicare and Paul Ryan, In particular, how the better-funded Romney campaign gets outspent in swing state Ohio or allows Obama to disingenuously argue putting his special interest (crony union) manipulation of bankruptcy with taxpayers still on the hook for tens of billions of dollars is more equal than regular bankruptcy without taxpayers on the hook..
When I hear dimwitted political hacks like Plouffe and Stephanie Cutter on Sunday talk soup (say, FTN or ABC's This Week), and I hear the talking heads criticize the convention on Romney introducing himself, this is in the context of a summer of nonstop unanswered personal attacks on Romney. Plouffe is so predictable; he'll talk about Obama "saving" us from a depression (more like imitating FDR's similarly failed policies) and trying to argue that Obama inherited a flood of job losses (when in fact most of that large month losses occurred after the 2008 election when employers were relevantly worried about tax-and-spend Democrats controlling the Congress and White House--attributing the losses in Nov-Jan to a lame duck is intellectually dishonest--employers don't fire workers based on the next 3 months--only people ignorant of business and economics can believe that--not to mention the Congress was controlled by Dems whom did not pass Bush's budget). There are three things I can say with almost 100% certainty if the American people are stupid enough to reelect Obama: there will be gridlock as usual, stocks will tank, and employers will layoff workers. (Drudge is already carrying relevant stories.) A reelected Obama is not accountable, and he will stonewall any legitimate bipartisan measures just like Simpson-Bowles. (Romney hasn't fully exploited the Simpson-Bowles point; the Obama campaign thinks it's protected since Ryan voted against it (because he believes it sidesteps the real ObamaCare deficit) but the fact is the measure had support of all GOP senators on the committee.)
Let's talk statistics. One recent analyst suggested the improbable 0.3 unemployment drop talking point I heard argued the drop was a general pattern. In the first chart below, you can compare the same 2 months go back 10 years without a similar drop. Now lets look at nonfarm jobs, keep in mind we need about 150K jobs a month just to tread water. Obama is still in negative territory (second chart not including additions to the workforce) from Jan 09 to Sep 12. The low is Feb 10, and it briefly surged above 130M in the summer before dropping below that until October and adding less than 4M since then. Note the high point under Bush was Jan 08, nearly 5.5M more than under Clinton and 4.5M under Obama now. Keep in mind the economic recovery started in June 2009 and Obama has enjoyed near zero interest rates his full term. Note if Bush played the same dishonest cherry picked data points like the Obama campaign, he added over 7 million jobs from 2003 to 2007.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 6.0 | |
| 2003 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.7 | |
| 2004 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | |
| 2005 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | |
| 2006 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | |
| 2007 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.0 | |
| 2008 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 7.3 | |
| 2009 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 9.9 | |
| 2010 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 9.4 | |
| 2011 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 8.5 | |
| 2012 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 7.8 |
Total nonfarm (K's)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 130781 | 130903 | 131374 | 131662 | 131886 | 131839 | 132004 | 132005 | 132130 | 132118 | 132345 | 132481 | |
| 2001 | 132466 | 132529 | 132501 | 132219 | 132175 | 132047 | 131922 | 131767 | 131524 | 131193 | 130898 | 130720 | |
| 2002 | 130591 | 130445 | 130421 | 130337 | 130328 | 130375 | 130275 | 130264 | 130209 | 130330 | 130338 | 130175 | |
| 2003 | 130270 | 130111 | 129898 | 129849 | 129840 | 129840 | 129865 | 129820 | 129929 | 130126 | 130140 | 130259 | |
| 2004 | 130421 | 130465 | 130802 | 131051 | 131361 | 131442 | 131488 | 131610 | 131771 | 132119 | 132182 | 132316 | |
| 2005 | 132453 | 132693 | 132834 | 133194 | 133364 | 133607 | 133981 | 134174 | 134240 | 134320 | 134654 | 134814 | |
| 2006 | 135097 | 135413 | 135696 | 135877 | 135891 | 135967 | 136176 | 136359 | 136516 | 136507 | 136711 | 136882 | |
| 2007 | 137118 | 137211 | 137401 | 137473 | 137612 | 137687 | 137647 | 137629 | 137702 | 137781 | 137893 | 137982 | |
| 2008 | 138023 | 137939 | 137844 | 137636 | 137446 | 137248 | 137038 | 136764 | 136332 | 135843 | 135040 | 134379 | |
| 2009 | 133561 | 132837 | 132038 | 131346 | 130985 | 130503 | 130164 | 129933 | 129734 | 129532 | 129490 | 129319 | |
| 2010 | 129279 | 129244 | 129433 | 129672 | 130188 | 130021 | 129963 | 129912 | 129885 | 130105 | 130226 | 130346 | |
| 2011 | 130456 | 130676 | 130922 | 131173 | 131227 | 131311 | 131407 | 131492 | 131694 | 131806 | 131963 | 132186 | |
| 2012 | 132461 | 132720 | 132863 | 132931 | 133018 | 133063 | 133244 | 133386(P) | 133500(P) | ||||
| P : preliminary | |||||||||||||
Another Epic Santelli Rant:
The Misleading "October Surprise" Jobs
TSA/DHS and Civil Liberty
Political Humor
Yesterday, two ATMs here in New York were shut down for dispensing counterfeit money. People were suspicious after one guy kept asking, “Hey, can you break a 23?” - Jimmy Fallon
[What really gave it away was the picture of Barack Obama on the front and a helicopter on the back with the motto "proudly printed in the USA".]
You know the Obama campaign's in trouble when they're looking to Joe Biden to turn things around. - David Letterman
[Bringing on the relief campaign pitcher--no saves on the season, several wild pitches and leading the league in gaffes,]
Here comes the vice-presidential debate. My favorite part of a debate is when a candidate will tell a heartfelt anecdote about a struggling American who lives in a swing state. - David Letterman
[Biden will tell people all his accomplishments over the past 4 years, like advising Obama as Catholic about that ObamaCare birth control benefit mandate to Catholic employers. Biden thinks that Obama and he are the greatest team since Martin & Lewis with Obama being the ambiguously straight man with evolving thoughts on unusual political pairings.]
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
Alan Parsons Project, "Eye in the Sky". This concludes my series; my next group will be the Four Tops.
