Wise sayings often fall on barren ground,
but a kind word is never thrown away.
Arthur Helps
Follow-Up Odds and Ends
- Miscellany: 10/22/12: Presidential Debate 3 :Romney Wins a Strategic Victory
Romney won the third presidential debate – and how he did it was encapsulated in a single exchange. The candidates were discussing military spending and Romney had just accused Obama of making harmful cutbacks. The President wheeled out what must have seemed like a great, pre-planned zinger: “I think Governor Romney maybe hasn't spent enough time looking at how our military works. You mentioned the navy, for example, and that we have fewer ships than we did in 1916. Well, governor, we also have fewer horses and bayonets because the nature of our military's changed.”
But here’s why it was also a vote loser. For a start, Twitter immediately lit up with examples of how the US Army does still use horses and bayonets (horses were used during the invasion of Afghanistan). More importantly, this was one example of many in which the President insulted, patronized and mocked his opponent rather than put across a constructive argument. His performance was rude and unpresidential. Obama seemed to have a touch of the Bidens, wriggling about in his chair, waving his hands dismissively and always – always – smirking in Romney’s direction. By contrast, Romney sucked up the abuse and retained a rigid poker face all night. He looked like a Commander in Chief; Obama looked like a lawyer. Who would you rather vote for?
The real difference was in style. In his closing statement... Romney channeled Reagan by looking straight into the camera and asserting his faith in America But it was infinitely preferable to Obama’s constant, nasty attacks. Sometimes in life, the nice guys do win. Romney won the first debate by a mile. Because Romney’s win was so decisive, it sparked an image change: Americans started to think of him as presidential material. That’s why Obama winning the second debate by an inch made little impact – people were watching Romney not to see him land punches but to see how well he could take them. He won the third debate because, by the end of the night, his and Obama’s positions in the narrative arc had switched. Romney now looks like the President and Obama looks like the challenger.I'll comment further. The one thing I was worried about was that Romney might let Obama get under his skin and have a Gov. Perry moment and say something like "I'll bet you your Illinois state pension--you know, the same one that invests in China and tax havens..." Obama fell right into Romney's trap: he basically disqualified himself from reelection in front of a national audience. He was a jerk, by any objective standard, and voters don't like to vote for jerks. he doesn't get a do-over. He lost the first debate decisively and trying to out-jab Romney in the next 2 rounds and sneaking in cheap shots and violating rules of conduct can result in point deductions from voter referees. The clock ran out on him. Ironically the incumbent needs more debates.
The one thing I've been constantly worried over the past 2 years is the fact of Obama's personal popularity--it was masking the unpopularity of his progressive policies in a center-right nation. But a lousy economy forced his hand. I predicted that he would do what all incumbent politicians facing a tough reelection (e;g., Gray Davis, Rod Blagojevich): they go negative. When your appeal to voters is based not on your record or policies (there are reasons you don't hear ObamaCare or Dodd N. Frankenstein mentioned in Obama's ubiquitous ads), that's a double-edged sword.
I remember how Maryland Gov. Ehrlich (R) with majority approval ratings lost to Baltimore Mayor O'Malley. There are a couple of things I've pointed out the last couple of weeks--I've noticed Romney's net favorables catch up to Obama's declining ones and I've seen Romney winning national polls even with Obama approval moving from the mid-40's to near 50. And then there was a focus group (MSNBC ?) after the second debate where i I first heard a female voter say "I like Obama personally, BUT" It was clear to an armchair strategist like me (although granted one data point is not a trend) Obama was/is in trouble of losing the best thing going for him.
After I wrote the above paragraph, I stumbled across this Washington Times blurb:
Mitt Romney crossed a major threshold early this week, moving above 50 percent in his favorability rating with voters, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls — and for the first time in the campaign he now leads President Obama on that measure.
The Republican presidential nominee has clearly benefited from the debates. He had a 44.5 percent favorability rating at the end of September, before the debates. But by Monday, when he and Mr. Obama faced off for the final debate of the campaign, Mr. Romney’s favorability average was up to 50.5 percent.
The last thing Obama needed at this stage was to act like an amateurish, immature, petulant smartass trying to yank his big brother's chain. Maybe that plays well at San Francisco cocktail parties as a follow-up to mocking Midwesterners clinging to their Bibles and guns, but it probably doesn't play well with soccer moms--or hockey moms. Notice that Obama wouldn't have dared to pull the "not like playing Battleship" or "bayonets/horses" lines with John McCain, a retired Navy officer with 40 years in Congress, whom supports Romney's position noting the Asian strategy doesn't work with an undersized Navy.
The problem is the Obama campaign went so personal and negative for so long, a different Romney showed up to the debates. Second, Obama has surrounded himself with yes men focusing on soundbites that played mostly to the base. In a manner of speaking, he has a demoralized base (no Gitmo closure, no climate change, no immigration, more fatalities in Afghanistan, renewal of controversial Patriot Act provisions, declining household net worth, the lowest labor rate participation in decades, particularly among certain racial/ethnic groups, half of the idealist college graduates who supported Obama can't find jobs, etc.) Obama's initial charm was in a positive vision, an end to partisan gridlock--it wasn't business-as-usual divisive partisan red meat and other group think progressive agenda items, which all the Dem candidates shared; Obama only seems to understand zero-sum politics--no real negotiations or compromise, he's been constantly running, often in personal terms, against Bush, against the Tea Party or GOP "obstructionists", or against Romney. If I'm tired of defensiveness, excuses, and nonstop political spin. so are probably all but partisan Democrats.
Most of us conservatives could see this coming. Bill Clinton was smart enough to realize the significance of his mid-term rebuke, and did a course correction. Obama's rebuke was far more significant and his response was to be dismissive of the people's mandate. Obama fought real reform tooth and nail; he refused to back Simpson-Bowles, If he had proposed,say, an across-the-board 4% cut, year over year:if he had closed on broad-based business tax cuts, etc., he would have made the GOP's case against him more difficult. What we now see is uncertainty about expiring payroll tax cuts, across the board Bush tax cuts, and sequestration cuts hitting all at once. We still don't see a deal from Obama on the table 2 months before end of the year. This is NOT leadership.
Annabelle, my niece Faith feels your pain; she has 5 big brothers and no sister. What a beautiful sweetheart; adults booing a smart girl? Not cool...Most of us conservatives could see this coming. Bill Clinton was smart enough to realize the significance of his mid-term rebuke, and did a course correction. Obama's rebuke was far more significant and his response was to be dismissive of the people's mandate. Obama fought real reform tooth and nail; he refused to back Simpson-Bowles, If he had proposed,say, an across-the-board 4% cut, year over year:if he had closed on broad-based business tax cuts, etc., he would have made the GOP's case against him more difficult. What we now see is uncertainty about expiring payroll tax cuts, across the board Bush tax cuts, and sequestration cuts hitting all at once. We still don't see a deal from Obama on the table 2 months before end of the year. This is NOT leadership.
Another Obama Debate LIE Debunked
I'm not exactly sure what Obama learned in public sex education. But I learned that making babies has more to do with an ovary, not a mammary. Why Obama thinks Planned Parenthood provides mammograms, I don't know. Maybe Nancy Pelosi helped him prep for the debate, e.g., you have to pass subsidies for Planned Parenthood before we know what the subsidies cover.
In my view , there are a number of nonprofit organizations doing worthy things, e.g., the Red Cross. But I oppose subsidies to nonprofits. In the case of Planned Parenthood, I don't want a shell game being used to subsidize abortion services. Let them find private donors.
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
The Four Tops, 'If I Were A Carpenter". One of my favorite songs ever (since I've never been married I've never really sung it. I believe the original hit version was from Bobby Darin. My personal favorite version has to be from the immortal Johnny Cash and June Carter. Speaking of the Man in Black, my favorite song of his (I was more of a country pop fan then) I specifically remember phoning in (and heard my voice on the radio making the request for "What is Truth"): I also liked other more subtle anti-war songs like Bobby Goldsboro's "Broomstick Cowboy" and Glen Campbell's "Galveston" (Jimmy Webb is a songwriting god). (Say a prayer for Glen whom is suffering from Alzheimer's; I even like some of his sentimental songs like "Dreams of the Everyday Housewife" and "Honey, Come Back").
