Analytics

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Miscellany: 9/11/12

Quote of the Day  
All big things in this world are done by people 
who are naive and 
have an idea that is obviously impossible.
Dr. Frank Richards

NEVER AGAIN
We Will Never Forgive
We Will Never Forget







Obama, How's That Egypt Policy Working For You?

Angered Egyptian protesters
"What else did the Iranians say they did at their US Embassy in 1979?"
Real quote: "Obama, Obama there are still a billion Osamas"
Courtesy Reuters
Yes, I'm aware that Obama is not responsible for the actions of controversial pastor and fringe Presidential candidate Terry Jones, whom back in 2010 set into motion an international kerfuffle by threatening a public burning of the Koran.

Ah, yes: Terry Jones refers to himself as "Dr. Terry Jones". He holds an HONORARY doctorate from the California Graduate School of Theology (which has since distanced itself from Jones). Terry, you can call me "Dr. Ronald Guillemette": I worked so hard to get that title: not only not only did I have to have to complete a number of rigorous research courses and read thousands of esoteric academic research articles and a few dissertations, but I had to pass major and minor written comprehensive exams and an oral comprehensive exam, defend my dissertation proposal, get my data collection method approved by the Committee for the Protection of Human Subjects, gain access to, distribute and collect hundreds of completed surveys, analyze results, and defend my dissertation.

Jones and two Coptic Egyptians have reportedly produced an inflammatory film called Innocence of Muslims. (It should be noted that Christian Coptic Egyptians, about 10% of the otherwise predominantly Muslim country, have been, on occasion, the targets of horrific attacks by zealots.) The Coptic leadership in Egypt has already distanced itself from the provocative film.

Jones is, of course, out for publicity, knowing his actions would agitate certain ardent Muslim clerics. It reminds me of babysitting or visiting my siblings' kids when the younger siblings always seemed to know exactly how to pull their older siblings' chains; I tried, to no avail, to tell the older kids just to ignore it, that the whole purpose of their siblings' behavior was to provoke a disproportionate response. One similarly wants to tell the clerics that their actions in mobilizing a protest like today's are counterproductive. Pastor Jones is the leader of a small fringe church; he is not even credentialed from a recognized seminary. He is trying to get Muslims to overreact; today he succeeded. I wish he hadn't. I wish that Muslim clerics would ignore him. He has no real influence among Americans or Christians. I never heard of him before the Koran incident.

There are nearly 3 million Muslim Americans, whom are good ambassadors of their faith. I have worked with Muslims both in academia and in the IT profession. I am Catholic Christian, but I have the great works of religious literature in my personal library, including a copy of the Koran.

The Obama Administration distanced itself from Pastor Jones' dishonorable behavior, but it shouldn't have to: millions of American Muslims enjoy the freedom to practice their faith guaranteed by the US Constitution. Uncivil actions by Pastor Jones are the exception; the vast majority of Americans are proud of being a melting pot of immigrants of differing races and creeds.

Family Against the Immoral Chicago Public School 
Teacher Strike: Thumbs UP!



Sunday Talk Soup and the Exaggeration of the Akin Incident

When the Todd Akin kerfuffle on "legitimate rape" and pregnancy broke, I was astounded: how could any male candidate for office, running against an incumbent female US Senator, ever let himself get maneuvered into a discussion of rape and abortion? He's an 11-year Congressman; he's not exactly a rookie like Rand Paul was when Paul got himself in early trouble talking about the Civil Rights Act. I initially blasted him in the blog, but, and I think to my credit, I revisited the issue, and I have no problem supporting his candidacy against Claire McCaskill. Akin has a strong conservative voting record, one of the strongest in the country.

Although RCP now rates the race as leaning Dem and shows a clean sweep of recent polls for McCaskill, I've seen at least two polls with Akin in the lead after the kerfuffle broke, and  two of the 4 RCP polls show McCaskill only a point or 2 ahead. I suspect that Akin can ride out the storm; the 48% and 50% McCaskill got in her best 2 polls is not good, because Akin was getting blasted by the national media, to McCaskill's benefit; all year she has been struggling getting past 45%. Romney is showing good numbers in Missouri. I think you'll see the voters who jumped off Akin to undecided starting to come back over the next 3 weeks. The question is how Romney will handle things, because he's on the record wanting Akin out of the race. If I was Romney, I would simply point out that Claire McCaskill's voting record is inconsistent with his own positions.

But the more I reflect on the incident, I see basically some mistaken notions about the nature of rape and pregnancy and some ill-chosen terminology. Yes, I thought he expressed questionable judgment in discussing the issue and his choice of language, but rape and abortion policies are state issues, not federal issues, and he should simply admit that he was wrong about pregnancy and rape and used a poor choice of words in discussing the issue..

But let's go to the Aug. 26 Meet the Press and see how moderator David Gregory handles the issue:
GREGORY [to Sen. McCain]: There’s been another distraction this week and it’s political in nature. The Missouri Congressman Todd Akin with his ill-informed comments about rape and abortion. You were astounded by it. Mitt Romney said he should get out of the race, the reality is, he said no. And just this morning, senator, your former colleague, Olympia Snowe from Maine, Republican from that state who’s now left the senate, she writes an op-ed in which she says that the comments from Akin reinforce the perception that we in the Republican Party are unsympathetic to issues of paramount concern to women. How big a hole did Akin dig that Romney now has to climb out of?
GREGORY [to former Gov. Jeb Bush]: But one more on that Todd Akin again, as we sit here is still in the race, made controversial comments about, in his terms, legitimate rape, that he apologized for. The party platform in Tampa will focus, in part, on abortion. What does this say about internal rifts in the Republican Party that he’s been tried-- tried-- Mitt Romney and everybody else tried to force him out of the race and he hasn’t gone?
GREGORY [to Gov. Jan Brewer]: And Governor Brewer, you also have-- if there’s a lot of work for Romney to do, to break through some of the negative advertising, as you say, and Mike says, there’s also some issues that the party has right now. I mean, here you have Congressman Akin with his comments about rape, that talks about abortion, doing a lot of damage. The entire Republican establishment, including Mitt Romney saying get out. Let’s start with women and outreach to-- to women and what they care about after this Akin incident?
GREGORY: And we are back in Tampa from our perch here at the site of the Republican Convention more with our roundtable. First, I want to go to the map. But Mike Murphy I do want to talk to you about this Akin controversy, as well because…
MR. MURPHY: Sure.
GREGORY: …you know, as I’ve talked to women this week, I can’t imagine that anybody thinks it’s a good idea for Mitt Romney that you not only are going to energize Democratic women, but there’s a lot of Republican women who heard this and were disgusted by it…
MR. MURPHY: Yes.
GREGORY: …and frankly do not want to focus on what goes on with their bodies and their health, even in their own party?
MR. TODD: …and the Akin stuff. Colorado and Virginia more races have been won by Democrats by reaching out to pro-choice suburban women who want to vote Republican on economic issues but more races, Democrats have been able to steal in those two states on the issue of abortion. And that’s why Akin is a huge problem.
GREGORY: You know, this is a real issue.
GOV. BREWER: It is a-- it’s a huge issue and something that we’re all looking at and we’re all very, very concerned about. 
Okay, take a breath, guys. I have zero respect for any of this discussion from the standpoint of analysis: explain to me how getting the facts wrong about rape and pregnancy is a serious public policy concern?  I've known married men whom don't know their wives' clothing sizes. How many people voted  against Obama for not being smart enough to realize that there are 50 states, not 57?  People will say, well, Obama misspoke. Okay: Akin misspoke.

Let me point out that among the population, Gallup has found more public support for a pro-life stance, including a narrow plurality of women. Even a third of Democrats consider themselves pro-life. Roughly 20-25% of people believe that abortion should be either legal or illegal under all circumstances. A slim majority has a nuanced position opposing abortion in most cases, the exceptions most likely being life of the mother and rape. Pro-abortion choice advocates try to attack the logical consistency of the nuanced position; in response, pro-life advocates attempt to point out that these exceptions make for a tiny percentage of the 1.5M abortions taking place annually. Akin got himself into trouble trying to emphasize the latter point. I think that for any male politician, the subject of rape is politically radioactive: the less you say, the better; if you say anything at all, it should be to note that rape is unconditionally wrong, rapists should be prosecuted to the full extent of the law, and you empathize with the victims of rape and their families. PERIOD.

David Gregory is out of his mind. I haven't heard that original conversation with Akin's controversial statements, but I guarantee that Akin didn't start off a conversation wanting to talk about rape and its effect on pregnancy. It had to be a discussion where the interviewer was inquiring about abortion restrictions in the case of rape: what other purpose would there be for discussing pregnancy after rape?

But in what sense was this a big deal except for the fact Akin misspoke? It has nothing to do with McCaskill's voting record or his own as  a Congressman. Are people really going to say--what's important in the upcoming election is not the economy, jobs or the budget, but how well the candidates score on a biology test?  Is the emperor wearing clothes?

Granted, Akin showed poor political judgment in discussing the issue--it was a no-win situation--and should have deflected abortion as a state issue, but all this is a manufactured issue that has more to do with political correctness than public policy. Gregory is really trying to make it a campaign issue against Romney.

Job Creation and the Election?

Scott Rasmussen just put out a new poll showing Obama with a slim lead over Romney in whom is thought to be better able to create jobs. Of course, progressives are jumping all over that, but let me point out a dash of reality: first, the difference is within the margin of error (i.e., it's more like a tie); second, the Obama campaign and/or its PAC supporters have been running ads all summer about Romney outsourcing jobs to India or China and/or closing down plants, Romney's allegedly low job creation record as Massachusetts governor, etc. So it doesn't surprise me that Romney is not dominating Obama on the issue. I've already criticized his campaign strategy.

I think Romney already has a sound bite to address this definitively: when he left office as governor in 2007, unemployment in Massachusetts was under 5%. Under Obama, there has never been a full month below 8%.

Fortunately, as I've said in past posts, we don't have to depend on subjective opinion. Obama has had the weakest job creation record since the Depression; he hasn't even reached break-even, and over 4 million new people have joined the labor force.

Who's better able? Simple answer: whose policies are more free market consistent? Romney.

But the answer is that Presidents don't "create jobs" (well, unless you talk about Obama adding new unpaid for federal positions).  What Presidents can do is to provide policies consistent with business creation or growth. Romney's economic policies are better for a number of reasons: Obama's high taxes and regulations impede competition, less uncertainty under Romney about government policies helps business decision making, Obama's high spending/borrowing crowd out investment necessary for business expansion; Obama's poor record on free trade or a strong currency also mitigates growth. Romney's positions are consistent with smaller deficits, lower business income taxes, more trade pacts (hence new markets), and lower interest rates for borrowing, all policies supportive of economic growth and hence employment.

Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

Roxette, "Dangerous"