The meeting of two personalities is like
the contact of two chemical substances:
if there is any reaction, both are transformed.
Carl Jung
GOP Needs To Get Second Wind--FAST
I woke up this morning to a variety of news and nothing good. If you had asked me, shortly after the historic 2010 mid-term election, the probability that the GOP National Convention would get no bounce, but that the Democrats instead would get a bounce, that Rasmussen for the first time in several months would show Obama ahead of Romney 52-46 (almost exactly the percentage of the 2008 election results), the Dems nosing ahead of the Republicans on the generic ballot, and even ObamaCare rising to a post-SCOTUS high of about 44% favorable, at the same time official unemployment still remains stubbornly above 8% and, worse, decades-high structural long-term unemployed and decades-low labor force participation rate, I would have thought that you were delusional.
I have resisted reading Barack Obama's acceptance speech last week; any familiar reader knows that my pet nickname for him over the past 4 years is the "Pied Piper of Failed Liberalism". Folks, we are in an unsustainable government bubble. I know that as surely as I knew in 2005 we were in an unsustainable real estate bubble. We then had weak job growth and weak wage gains, yet house prices were outpacing the rest of the economy and there was wild speculation going on--condos were flipping several times before they were built. I also knew this would be worse than the stock bubble; in this case, we are talking about the biggest investment in most people's lifetimes.
The S&P 500 recently raced to a 4-year high. Based on what? The ECB taking helicopter flying lessons from Ben Bernanke? We have the Greeks screaming about "austerity" again, France's economy is beginning to falter (big surprise there...), and Germany is seen as Bailout Central (but the PIIGS will say nasty things behind Merkel's back). I'm still waiting for Germany to reestablish the deutsche mark...
With barely measurable second quarter growth and early signs of a negative third quarter, I don't quite see where stocks are going (despite what I think is Mark Perry of Carpe Diem's "irrational exuberance"). If anyone hasn't noticed, Chinese stocks haven't looked good for a long time. A few US-listed Chinese companies have been hit on accounting allegations, and Silvercorp is particularly interesting. (A link I used earlier today is now down, but one of Silvercorp's shortselling critics has been arrested in China, and there was some discussion that Silvercorp was more actively involved than your typical crony capitalist.) The same article suggested that a lot of Chinese banks are swamped with bad loans. Whether or not the allegations on Silvercorp are legitimate, it does seem that Chinese major influx of commodities is slowing, and this, if true, will be a problem with resource-rich countries like Australia, Canada, and a few countries in South America and Africa. In many ways, China has been picking up the slack for weak American growth.
If the US and China falter, and Europe is struggling as well, where is the global demand going to come from? We have had 4 years of the Fed pressing interest rates to zero, and Bernanke is hinting at a QE3 of some sort--but nothing he has tried has been able to kick the US into the long term growth average. Whatever his policy is, it will not be enough.
I predict this, and I'll cite this in a future post: whoever is elected in November will be the most unpopular man in America by the end of 2013. The debt ceiling kerfuffle will be a tea party (pun intended) compared to what we could see by then. Let me be very clear: I would do the EXACT OPPOSITE OF EVERY SINGLE POLICY that Hoover and FDR did in dealing with (and prolonging) the Depression.
I'm about as Tea Party as Tea Party gets. The GOP has been running an inept campaign. I just don't get it: how could a so-called business-oriented party be so inept at marketing itself? The GOP is letting itself get defined as a bunch of intolerant extremists Time and again, you see GOP politicians get trapped into talking about abortion in extreme cases or defending the upper 1%. Some basic advice from an armchair strategist:
- Classify culture war issues as state issues and move on
- Do NOT get trapped into talking about details: all you do is run the clock. Obama is quite willing to let you run out the clock in the last 2 months of the campaign. Make your time count.
- Avoid ANY NEGATIVE TONE OR REFERENCE to Obama, no back-handed compliments. Be classy, positive and warm towards Obama. It doesn't matter whether the criticisms are true: people are NOT supportive of Obama because he is competent: the only reason he is in the ballgame is because they like him personally. Your best option is to mirror those characteristics
- Simplify your message, sound a positive note, and project confidence. Discuss virtues as restoring them to government: frugality of government, integrity, reliability, honesty, hard work.
- DO NOT PANDER. Do not insult your audience. Engage in straight talk, not political spin: stress REAL change will require GENUINE sacrifice by ALL people.
- KEEP ON POINT: the Democrats will do what they always do: spend other people's money, make promises they don't deliver on, and create elaborate, ineffectual rules and regulations that add costs to consumers and make it more difficult for businesses to grow and hire more people.
From yesterday's "welfare nation" commentary:
Do I think Obama has the courage to take on sacred cows like the mortgage interest deduction? Not a chance... Would Romney? I understand why Romney would not want to be specific about budget cuts before the election... Still, my guess is that Romney might take measured steps, not enough in my view but a start (e.g., means-test, cap the deduction, etc.)I wrote that before reading about this exchange in yesterday's Meet the Press Romney interview. (I will likely review the interview in a future Sunday Talk Soup commentary):
GREGORY: Can you give me an example of a loophole that you will close.
MR. ROMNEY: Well, I can tell you that people at the high end, high income taxpayers, are going to have fewer deductions and exemptions... I am not reducing taxes on high income taxpayers. I'm bringing down the rate of taxation, but also bringing down deductions and exemptions at the high end so the revenues stay the same, the taxes people pay stay the same. But at the high end, the tax coming in stays the same.Just an aside here: Romney comes close in the encompassing discussion to the same type of middle class pandering that the Democrats are doing and playing tip service to the progressive tax system. I do like the way he's particularly focused on encouraging savings and investment income for the middle class, but I would prefer that he focuses on a simpler, flatter income tax and a consumption/VAT tax, rather than tweaking the convoluted tax code.
Michelle Obama and the Arrogance of Progressivism
As we are heading into another school year (see below), the Healthy Hunger Free Kids Act, passed in 2010, is in effect, affecting some 32 million children, many eligible for free or subsidized breakfasts and/or lunches. The USDA has a role in establishing nutrition standards, including oversight on what is sold on campus vending machines. Meals served in audited compliance with the USDA standards will be eligible for 6 cents higher disbursements (my edits):
The law increases spending on school nutrition programs by $4.5 billion over ten years and encompasses a range of provisions, including offering qualified children breakfast, lunch and dinner at school, as well as meals during the summer. It also includes a pilot program for “organic foods.”
According to Ms. Obama: "Everywhere I go, fortunately, I meet parents who are working very hard to make sure that their kids are healthy. They’re doing things like cutting down on desserts and trying to increase fruits and vegetables. They’re trying to teach their kids the kind of healthy habits that will stay with them for a lifetime.
“But when our kids spend so much of their time each day in school, and when many children get up to half their daily calories from school meals, it’s clear that we as a nation have a responsibility to meet as well. We can’t just leave it up to the parents. I think that parents have a right to expect that their efforts at home won’t be undone each day in the school cafeteria or in the vending machine in the hallway. I think that our parents have a right to expect that their kids will be served fresh, healthy food that meets high nutritional standards.”This disingenuous double talk is nauseating; we are "touched" by smug, self-superior elitists rationalizing the need for heavy-handed government intervention: the reason children are not physically fit is because of their diet during school and the implicitly implied failure of local/state school administration. Obesity is a general lifestyle issue, yet Ms. Obama naturally manufactures a childhood obesity crisis to rationalize pushing-on-a-string demand for central planning by the bureaucrats, establishing its beachhead in the school lunchroom.
No, Ms. Busybody, it's NOT the nation's responsibility to micromanage and second-guess the eating habits of other people or their children, barring malnutrition or abuse. It is also morally hazardous; for example, the busy parent may simply opt for quick, convenient meals at home, knowing that the kids get nutritionally balanced meals at school.
Are we just a step away from busybody teachers and administrators encouraging students to report on and critique their parents' dietary decisions, policies and supervision, how bad an example their out-of-shape, undisciplined parents set? Make no mistake:we aren't just talking about what is being served at school. From the website these "tips":
- "Cooking at home is a great, affordable way to add healthy food to our diet at the personal level. Ask your kids about what they had for lunch in the cafeteria and try those new fruits and vegetables in your own kitchen."
- "Eat meals together at home and enjoy fruits, vegetables and whole grains as a family."
- "Grocery shop with your children and let them make healthy choices with you down the grocery aisles."
But anyone with a research background will tell you that guidelines often don't have a lot of established scientific results behind them (e.g., even something as simple as how many glasses of water to drink a day), and I've known kids with special dietary restrictions and/or whom are very picky eaters.
I can't speak for others, but as a kid, I wasn't distracted by video games, cable TV, DVD's, etc. When I wasn't studying, I was bicycling, swimming, bowling, playing catch or tossing around the football with my younger brother, shooting at a neighbor's basketball hoop, hiking or camping with Boy Scouts, or playing youth sports (baseball, basketball, judo, golf, etc.) And my Mom had strict rules about eating, especially between meals. (Soda and ice cream were on special occasions like birthdays; we would go to McDonald's on special occasions like religious occasions (first communion, confirmation, etc.))
I left home at 16 for college; I remember a decade later while I was a UH graduate student coming home for holidays, I was stunned: my baby brother and sister in high school just helped themselves at will to soda cans packed at the bottom of the refrigerator and cartons of Blue Bell ice cream from the freezer. What happened to all the rules, like eating between meals? The folks had more income at the time; my mom, formerly a housewife, had a job.
I can still remember making a buck a day delivering about 90 papers daily. I had a 5-mile or so route that would start in the family section and then across alternative housing (trailers, etc.) in a couple of sections on base and then finish through some bachelor quarters. They had some beer and soda can vending machines; especially on those 100-degree days, I would occasionally buy myself a can of Sprite.
In fact, I've written this anecdote before. To provide the context: I loved boiled egg sandwiches as a kid; when I had gone to Catholic primary school, the first thing we did in the morning was attend Mass. At the time there were fasting requirements before Mass, so in addition to lunch, we would bring a breakfast, and right after Mass, we would eat our breakfasts in our school homeroom. Mom would frequently make me boiled egg sandwiches for breakfast.
I used to babysit my baby sister on Sunday morning while the rest of the family went to Mass. (I usually served as altar boy at the Sunday obligation Mass on Saturday evening; I used to get up early to deliver thick Sunday papers in the early morning.) The local south Texas television station during the fall would run these one-hour compressed video telecasts of the previous afternoon's Notre Dame football game. (Ironically, my sister married a hardcore Notre Dame fan--also named 'Ronald'. They graduated from the same local Texas university, but he was/is a diehard Notre Dame fan and went on trips with his father to attend games. I don't take any credit, but I know I introduced my sister to Notre Dame football.)
I don't recall how it started. I think she was curious when she saw me eating a sandwich, wanted to try one--and liked it. I would make myself and my baby sister boiled egg sandwiches during the telecast, never telling Mom because she had a strict no-eating-between-meals policy.
One Sunday the rest of the family was slow getting out of the house for Mass. My baby sister was impatient and told the family, "You need to leave right now so Ronald will make me breakfast." I'm stunned, looking at my little sister: that was supposed to be OUR little secret. I thought my Mom was going to kill me. It turned out my Mom thought it was sweet I was feeding my sister.
The Chicago School Teacher Strike: Thumbs DOWN!
Interestingly enough, I have had a professional experience with Chicago Public Schools. At the time Paul Vallas was Superintendent; as an aside for readers, Vallas is the guy whom ran second in the 2002 gubernatorial Democrat primary, losing to Mr. Spandex himself, Rod Blagojevich, and Vallas was succeeded by Arne Duncan (yes, the Obama Administration Education Department Secretary). Vallas had decided on Oracle Apps (e-Business Suite) as an ERP solution. (For unfamiliar readers, an ERP suite is a comprehensive integrated organizational application system which can handle various functions, including accounting (everything from generating an invoice to a trial balance and other financial statements.))
I had just come off a City of Oakland project for my consulting employer; my practice manager wanted me to find a follow-up assignment. A consulting project manager at a GE site in Indiana chose me as the next tech lead; protocol required that he had to request for my services from my practice manager. My practice manager used the offer to get me placed on the CPS project. This was an extraordinarily bad decision for a number of reasons and led to my eventual leaving the company. My practice manager later explained to me that it all boiled down to the fact that it would cost business expenses to staff me in Indiana, but even though I was a good hour's drive away from CPS headquarters, he didn't have to pay expenses on this project because it was local (I think they migrated to downtown shortly thereafter, but at the time I think they were headquartered in a south Chicago suburb).
I would eventually discover that the project had something like 27 consultants--including around 6 DBA's. At the time CPS' production server was on order and only a test server was available. I have no clue why the project manager was collecting Apps DBA's like postage stamps; 6 DBA's with one server is like hiring 6 chefs with access to one stove burner. There were few, if any technical duties to be assigned to; instead, we were given project documents to complete.
There were two reasons why I eventually asked to leave the project. First, the company was installing a recent version of Apps that was being obsoleted by a new version. I vehemently argued that we should be installing the new version, because otherwise they would have to schedule an upgrade over the next couple of years which would make no sense. I was curtly told that the version was dictated by the contract. I didn't care: it was professionally irresponsible. I was basically warned against pursuing this issue.
Second, I was assigned a deliverable that required me essentially to validate Vallas' choice of Oracle EBS from a business process standpoint. I had virtually no access to CPS' documents and personnel. I surveyed example documents and tried to brainstorm some ideas, e.g., quantifying manpower savings in processing invoices; shortened time period to close books at the end of the fiscal year. The first example turned out to be unworkable because they really didn't keep those types of records and the civil servant jobs often had multiple responsibilities. So you really couldn't say things like, they have 4 dedicated accounts payable clerks, and now they can get by with 2. (And it may not even be feasible to discuss things like laying off two accounts payable clerks.)
For the second example, I finally got in touch with some CPS accountant and asked, "How long does it take you guys to close your books every fiscal year?" I'll never forget her response: "That's a good question. We've never closed our books. That's part of the reason why you guys are here."
There are other ways to make the case for packaged standardized ERP software versus homegrown, patched over, poorly documented systems requiring heavily customized, expensive development, vulnerable to security issues, but the document I was doing didn't address that. I was getting nagged about delivering a document where I had to invent numbers out of thin air. I couldn't do that from a standpoint of professional ethics, even though I was aware a failure to deliver it could cost me my job. The project manager was inflexible and refused to reassign the deliverable. I went to my practice manager and told him I wanted off the project. He was not happy and shipped me off to a failing Oracle project for the State of Oklahoma, which I immediately turned around.
Anyway, about the strike: Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel has made it clear that he wants a longer school day and year; he also wants student performance included in teacher evaluations and principals to have more say in the termination of ineffective teachers.
The teachers are still upset about Emanuel's budget cuts to promised raises over the past year, and the teacher unions see the proposals as extra uncompensated work, they prefer the current crony subjective evaluation systems (and scapegoat factors beyond their control to explain bad student achievement results), and they see merit-based evaluations as a pretext for terminating the most expensive teachers.
Most familiar readers can probably predict my responses to the first public teacher strike in 25 years or so, but here are some comments:
- Strikes by public employees are totally unacceptable and in my judgment immoral. You are striking against the taxpayer. If you don't like the conditions of your employment, quit. The taxpayer does not owe you a living. In the private sector, our jobs are vulnerable to a competitive global market.
- I'm tired of self-serving teachers whom lack the professionalism to accept responsibility for their performance in objective terms; I'm tired of teachers blaming other people or factors: everybody is subject to similar constraints; they're getting as bad as Barack Obama when it comes to making excuses.
- As a classical (free market) liberal, I believe that the real solution is to privatize public education.
- From a standpoint of free market competition, the public school teacher cartel is an intrinsically corrupt crony unionist structure that is fundamentally anti-consumer; it maintains compensation levels not reflecting supply/demand by teacher type and artificially high, only possible through government coercion and protection.
- If you are going to maintain a public school monopoly, you need to consider implementation of means-tested user (student tuition) fees, provide school choice for parents, replace tenure with multiple-year contracts, implement collective bargaining reforms (including immediate termination and forfeiture of future benefits by any teacher involved in strike actions), and ensure timely public disclosure of school and teacher evaluations.
- I support the reforms suggested by Rahm Emanuel (this is probably the first and only time I'll ever agree with Rahm Emanuel). However, I think there are significant reforms that he hasn't addressed. For example, he needs to address the chronic problems of grade inflation, social promotion, and shorter decision cycles when it comes to evaluating functional performance. We cannot allow a person lacking rudimentary reading and math skills to progress until graduation or dropout.
Finally, I'm sick and tired of politically correct hype and lip service to teachers--there was one parent whose reaction was--give them anything they ask for--they're worth it. WHAT A LOAD OF CRAP! When I was teaching in college, half of my students couldn't write a decent essay to save their lives. A lot of them had false expectations and bad work habits. These did not just surface in college:
I'm not going to pay lip service to educators, because I used to be an educator. I saw some of my colleagues give out pseudocode listings (e.g., computer programming exercises were mostly text editing, not actually writing a program on your own). Nobody was getting evaluated on how well their students did in a job after graduation. A lot of students I had weren't interested in learning; they wanted to get their job ticket punched with as little time and effort as necessary (and high grades, of course). I once had to give a UTEP student, whom did something nice in my behalf, an F in a data structures course; he simply didn't do the work, and I in good faith couldn't pass him. I was willing to work with him to get past his issues, but the bottom line is that the student has to speak up for himself.
I'm sure that people like people whom do good service for them--teacher, plumber, car mechanic, doctor, etc. That's fine. But this is business, not personal. As a professor, I did not work for free. It was my job. It's nice to be appreciated, and I can think of maybe a half dozen times during an 8-year career I got thanks. But for me, I was my toughest critic. I would never have stepped into that classroom if I wasn't convinced I could make a difference. I would never have taught a class simply for the sake of compensation. If I had played office politics better, I would probably be a tenured full professor today. Instead, I'm in a profession where I have to compete and prove myself de novo for every gig I get in a very tough economy. When I hear self-entitled teachers whining about getting a raise short-changed when there are over 23 million people unemployed or underemployed, cry me a river.
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
Roxette, "Listen to Your Heart"
