Some painters transform the sun into a yellow spot;
others transform a yellow spot into the sun.
Pablo Picasso
Reflections on the GOP National Convention Day 3:
Part 4
Romney's Acceptance Speech (continued)
- I will begin my presidency with a jobs tour. President Obama began with an apology tour. Every American was relieved the day President Obama gave the order, and Seal Team Six took out Osama bin Laden. But on another front, every American is less secure today because he has failed to slow Iran's nuclear threat. President Obama has thrown allies like Israel under the bus, even as he has relaxed sanctions on Castro's Cuba. He abandoned our friends in Poland by walking away from our missile defense commitments, but is eager to give Russia's President Putin the flexibility he desires, after the election.
I don't like the tone Romney is setting here; I understand the desire to do the red meat thing and the post-UBL killing "what have you done for me lately?" attitude. It may connect with the military/law-and-order conservatives, but I'm not sure it's a way to reach out to independents and moderates, many of whom share my concerns about the fact that under Obama's watch, more Americans have been killed than under the two terms of Bush.
I think there are ways for Romney position himself against Obama:
- Make a point about respecting the Constitutional balance of powers, i.e., Obama's dubious pursuit of hostilities against certain countries during the Arab uprising without Congressional approval and questionable spreading of drone attacks against targets in Pakistan, Yemen
- Express a concern about Obama decision making process (dithering in Afghanistan), his inconsistent policies (e.g., support of Egyptian versus Iranian dissidents), his expanding meddling throughout the Middle East and Gulf Region, his confounding of diplomatic with political considerations (i.e., Putin), his cuts in military R&D spending, his ill-considered, disloyal apology tour, his defensive sacking of top generals expressing opinions about political figures (e.g., Gen. McChrystal and Fuller) and his choice of priorities (e.g., repeal of 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell').
- Provide a more statesman-like alternative to Obama. Some of the same methodology deployed by Bain Capital can be used in the context of military and foreign policy. Romney should stress a more balanced approach to foreign policy and unbalanced deployment of resources in one global hotspot of dubious strategic merit. I would like to see him flesh out a feasible, sustainable foreign policy consistent with limited tax revenues, ongoing $1T deficits and a $16T national debt.
You might have asked yourself if these last years are really the America we want, the America won for us by the greatest generation. Does the America we want borrow a trillion dollars from China? No. Does it fail to find the jobs that are needed for 23 million people and for half the kids graduating from college? No. Are its schools lagging behind the rest of the developed world? No. And does the America we want succumb to resentment and division? We know the answer. If I am elected President of these United States, I will work with all my energy and soul to restore that America, to lift our eyes to a better future.Again, I agree with what Romney is saying, but I'm just not a fan of how he's saying it. Here's how I might have repackaged the message:
"What we have here is a failure of progressive politics over the past century: we have seen the results of throwing ever more tax dollars at public school monopolies but baseline student performance has remained stagnant for decades. We have massive entitlement systems, with over $40T in unfunded liabilities--nearly triple the size of our economy. We have a grossly overextended, redundant and wasteful, ineffective federal government; the CEI estimates the cost of regulations, a hidden form of taxation, at $1.75T a year. We have had a Federal Reserve that has failed to halt erosion of the purchasing power of the dollar and has propped up multiple massive asset bubbles. We have a national debt that has almost tripled over the past dozen years, with anemic economic growth and the lowest job growth and labor force participation in decades.
"What have we seen? We have a Democrat-controlled Senate which has not put together a budget in over a thousand days. We have a President whom as a senator voted against a debt ceiling increase and called Bush's additions to the national debt over 2 terms and China's bankrolling of part of it obscene--and has already exceeded Bush's additions to the debt, spurned his own bipartisan deficit reduction committee majority-supported plan, and seen the first credit rating downgrade in US history, trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see.
"All the Democrats can come up with is spending increases and class warfare tax hikes. We have pushing-on-a-string ObamaCare already resulting in premium rate increases and being propped up by already underfunded Medicare. We have massive new regulations where failure of government regulation is rewarded with even more regulation.
"We have morally hazardous domestic policies that reinforce undue dependence on the government. Our economy is on the same path as Greece has been on over the past few years. If and when foreign investors decide not to invest in government bonds at current interest rates, we will be forced to increase interest rates--which could result in another recession. We need to stop the madness.
"We have a Democratic Party that has run out of ideas on how to pay for its own policies. What we need is a wake up call from the people. The people need to demand a restoration of economic liberty, an end to busybody politics, an end to government not living within its means, real cuts in the budget (not gimmick cuts in budget increases over the coming decades), a sound currency, and a more balanced federalist alignment with empowered state and local government authority and funding. We must have an end to government picking winners and losers. We require globally competitive business tax rates We need to cut nonessential spending and regulation.
"In short, we need to demand of federal government the same virtues that we demand of ourselves, including diligence, integrity, thrift, courage, honesty, frugality, courtesy and responsibility. Those principles guided me in business and as governor, and they will guide me as President of the United States."
Some Post-Speech Reflections
A few comments:
- Over the past few posts, I've found myself rewriting pieces of the speech: I don't earn a penny for writing this blog. (Obama's speechwriters are even worse.) Maybe it is a result of all the research and writing I've done on tech writing and documentation. Although I realize to some readers I may be long-winded, I work hard at organizing my thoughts, not for my benefit but for the reader's. In a sense, this was Romney's coming out party to the nation. I think earlier in the campaign much was made of Romney's 59-point economic plan (say, versus Cain's pithy 9-9-9). One of the concepts we review in most core MIS classes is Miller's the magical number 7 (plus or minus 2), which references the number of items we can process and remember. The point I'm making here is that you want to take care not to overwhelm your listeners and one way you do that is by organizing your speech. I know at one point he listed a 5-point plan for generating 12 million jobs. But the speech came across as unwieldy and obscure at points. He did have a couple of good takeaway lines ("Now is the moment when we can stand up and say, "I'm an American. I make my destiny. And we deserve better! My children deserve better! My family deserves better. My country deserves better!"", "President Obama promised to begin to slow the rise of the oceans and heal the planet. MY promise...is to help you and your family.") But on a further note, I expected more of a crescendo at the end of the speech to a climactic rallying cry (like McCain's "stand up and fight"). I thought he was trying to do that with the first takeaway, but the moment seemed to just fade away. I didn't like the way he tried to focus on the theme of unity in closing the speech; the reason why is because I see it as unrealistic: Washington has been so bitterly partisan for so long (and even Obama's reelection campaign to date) and Obama famously promised and failed at a post-partisan America. I thought if anyone had a shot, it was George W. Bush, given his bipartisan record as Texas governor, but that died quickly when Gore tried to reverse the Florida results and then of course the Democrats lured Jeffords to their caucus to reverse control of the Senate.
- I think Romney missed an opportunity to posture himself from the Bush/Obama terms that have added over $10T to the national debt over the past dozen years, had anemic job growth, engaged in high-expense nation building and had extensive government intervention. I've already mentioned that some of Romney's talking points blurred differences from Obama--e.g., education reform, small business, all of the above energy solution, discussions about community and unity, etc. How would he distinguish his decision making versus Obama's? Would he cheer from the sidelines like Obama or would he be actively engaged with legislative leaders? How does he see Paul Ryan's role? Would it differ from how Obama is using Biden?
- In contrast to other analysts, I saw the speech as a mixed-bag. For example, I thought that he sounded fairly strident on foreign policy issues, which appeals to military conservatives like McCain and Graham. I do think that he made a good attempt to steer clear of divisive culture war issues and to address the "woman gap" issues by stressing how he's had high-level roles, e.g., when he was governor, filled by female executives; in fact, the Hill reported a poll that showed Romney's favorables going up about 5 points after the first day of the convention. I do think he did a good job trying to project confidence and optimism in taking on the role of President. However, at times he came across to me as saying what he thought voters want to hear; I prefer to hear more of a principled political philosophy. There are also nuances: if entitlements and Defense, about 80% of the budget, are untouchable, how does he balance the budget? How does he square China-bashing with his free trade principles?
How Weird Was the Clint Eastwood Speech?
It was probably the worst-kept secret ever: Clint Eastwood would make a surprise appearance at the convention Thursday. I honestly thought, in the aftermath of the famous and controversial Super Bowl Chrysler ad (Eastwood denied making a (pro-bailout) political statement with the ad), we would see some variation of the ad, which would dovetail with Mitt Romney's "comeback team" concept:
It's halftime. Both teams are in their locker room discussing what they can do to win this game in the second half.
It's halftime in America, too. People are out of work and they're hurting. And they're all wondering what they're going to do to make a comeback. And we're all scared, because this isn't a game.
The people of Detroit know a little something about this. They almost lost everything. But we all pulled together, now Motor City is fighting again.
I've seen a lot of tough eras, a lot of downturns in my life. And, times when we didn't understand each other. It seems like we've lost our heart at times. When the fog of division, discord, and blame made it hard to see what lies ahead.
But after those trials, we all rallied around what was right, and acted as one. Because that's what we do. We find a way through tough times, and if we can't find a way, then we'll make one.
All that matters now is what's ahead. How do we come from behind? How do we come together? And, how do we win?
Detroit's showing us it can be done. And, what's true about them is true about all of us. This country can't be knocked out with one punch. We get right back up again and when we do the world is going to hear the roar of our engines.
Yeah, it's halftime America. And, our second half is about to begin.
Instead we got some variation of Bob Newhart's classic one-way conversation bit where Eastwood is simulating a conversation with Obama (in an empty chair beside Eastwood) and the absent Obama responds with clearly implied profanity; at the end Eastwood makes an endorsement of Romney-Ryan. (Yes, everyone knows Voight is conservative, not to mention Steve Baldwin and others). The performance just came across as an unfunny, odd performance. There were ways to make the bit work--e.g., put out a second chair for Biden, and have Eastwood cup his ear and say something like, "You're right, Joe--the nomination of Mitt Romney is a big effing deal..." and Eastwood could claim that the reason we couldn't hear Obama is that he left his teleprompter at the White House...
Political Potpourri
I've been watching the polls, but a predicted bounce in the polls (by the White House) doesn't seem to have surfaced, other than Romney up by 4 in Rasmussen which is the widest I've seen Rasmussen in some time. We probably won't know until over the coming week. But Gallup maintains a 1-point lead for Obama, and Gallup has had Romney and Obama switching leads within the margin of error (i.e., effectively tied). Oddly, Gallup over the weekend has Obama down at 43% approval but up 46-45 over Romney, while Rasmussen has Obama's approval above his percentage against Romney. Poll bounces have become less prevalent since Kerry never got one out of the 2004 Dem convention.
Romney I believe has a money advantage going into the fall campaign which he can now use since he's officially the nominee. It would be interested to see if they have something new and unexpected to use against Obama.
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
Cheap Trick, "I Want You To Want Me". This has to the group's signature hit; there aren't many songs I've heard where the live version is better than the original studio, but this is a good example.
