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Friday, October 23, 2020

Post #4850 Trump/Biden Debate 2: My Review

 My prior posts on the 2020 general election debates: Trump/Biden 1 and Pence/Harris.

A brief summary: this was a much improved debate, in terms of topics, professional demeanor, quality and performance by the participants. I think the preannounced mute buttons probably helped, and the moderator (Kristen Welker) did a better job than Chris Wallace did in controlling the debate. This was easily the best debate performance I've seen from Trump (the 2016 GOP primary debates and this year's;  I still have not reviewed the Trump/Clinton debates). He seemed much more disciplined, muted, and better prepared. I did think the questioning in general tended to favor Biden (climate change, minority neighborhoods near polluting businesses, systemic racism, and an emphasis on the COVID-19 pandemic and recession economy).

Let me repeat that I would have preferred to see Jo Jorgensen in the debate. That being said, I evaluated the debate in terms of strategy and in terms of points

From the standpoint of strategy, Trump, who is behind in the polls, really needed a knockout punch or Biden having a meltdown, something that might catch the attention of voters on the fence, maybe even sway soft support from Biden. He didn't get that, and I think his own campaign's attempts to portray Biden as all but senile, gaffe-prone, etc. left Biden with a low hurdle to clear, with Biden easily turning in a reasonably competent, engaged performance. Clearly Trump hoped to provoke Biden with accusations of corruption, especially with respect to his son Hunter. But Biden was prepared and largely shrugged off the expected attacks. I do think Biden missed an opportunity to turn the tables on Trump, his illegal hold on Ukraine aid to force a politically motivated investigation. On Trump's part, he came close but didn't quite reference the ethical issues involved in a conflict of interest posed by Hunter Biden's involvement with Burisma. (Among other things, the US was investigating the oligarch (Mykola Zlochevsky) who owned Burisma. You don't want the perception that the oligarch was buying favors from the US government by hiring Hunter Biden, particularly given VP Joe Biden's role in Ukraine relations. I believe that there were those in the State Department who raised concerns.)

On points, I hate to say this because I almost completely disagree with Biden on policy, but I felt Biden was generally more articulate, specific and detailed in his responses, while Trump was more predictable and resorted to his usual bluster and braggadocio. To give an example off the top of my head, Trump repeated that he has done more for blacks than anyone since Lincoln. Seriously, dude? Like landmark Civil Rights legislation in the 1960's which outlawed segregation in public places and discrimination in hiring, plus related voting reforms, which among other things opened the way to more black lawmakers in the South and eliminated race-oriented public policy restrictions in voting? He also claimed that he had done more for blacks than the Obama/Biden Administration in terms of the justice system (commutations, etc.) Biden was prepared for this and returned Trump's serve  for a winner, rattling off commutation numbers that dwarfed Trump's purported efforts. I did think other parts of Biden's defense were more hypocritical like blaming the opposition Congress for lack of progress. The fact is that Obama had a supermajority 111th session of Congress, which Trump never had, and control of the Senate for his first 6 years. Trump lost the House in his mid-terms and so the same excuse could be used by him (and was in his discussion concerning Speaker Pelosi).

In my more specific discussion below on topics, I may do like in my VP debate spin off separate pro-liberty takes in inset red-type paragraphs.

Leadership in the COVID-19 Crisis

I believe, like in the case of race relations, the moderator didn't really break new ground here. I think the intent was to get the candidates to be specific about what they would do to lead in the crisis starting with the next inauguration given the assumption we are still battling the pandemic in January.

Trump basically argued more of the same, that his strategy is working; he points out that some models had projected millions of deaths, he argues his travel bans, e.g., from China, lowered the severity of the pandemic, that they had turned the corner on, e.g., the production of ventilators, which were in shortage at the beginning of the crisis and we are near the corner on producing and distributing a vaccine. He once again tried to scapegoat China for the pandemic, argued that government experts like Fauci have vacillated on practical issues like face masks. He pointed out high casualties in blue states like NY. He once again tries to argue that testing has distorted statistics. Some personal shots, like Biden riding out the pandemic in his basement, and Trump argues that Biden has been inconsistent on travel bans and said that Biden argued the restrictions were xenophobic policy.

Biden basically argued that Trump is not providing states and businesses with the funding they need to safely reopen (e.g., to put up plastic barriers between workers/students, etc.), that he didn't react quickly enough to news of the pandemic, has impulsively and prematurely pushed for reopening, as early as Easter. He dubiously suggests a national face mask mandate and responds to Trump blue state attack by pointing out red states (like the Dakotas) are spiking in the ongoing third wave. He says that Trump's approach isn't working, that we're back to over 1000 deaths and over 50,000 or so cases daily.

A few points to make here. First of all, in our federal system, health regulation is primarily the responsibility of states. A President's role is fairly limited constitutionally. I expected, but Biden did not argue that reorganization of the pandemic response unit occurred on Trump's watch, that the FDA and CDC botched initial testing rollout, and earlier testing could have helped contain the pandemic. The spread of the virus had more to do with returning American tourists who obviously were not properly quarantined. According to experts, travel bans may temporarily slow but not stop the spread of the disease. Second, Biden's suggestion of throwing money at the problem is not only fiscally irresponsible but ineffective, sets false expectations and is morally hazardous. Schools are a state/local, not federal responsibility. I would have liked to see the debaters look at how federal regulators and government monopolies impede the private sector from responding, e.g., in testing, like South Korea managed to do. The shutdown policies at the state/local level were too broad, e.g., job sites may not be hotspots for infection. Biden's willingness to consider another shutdown and to implement an unconstitutional face mask policy are worrisome.

Foreign Relations/Interference in Elections/North Korea/China

Given foreign relations are a key Presidential responsibility in terms of trade and diplomatic relations, I welcomed this segment but found the moderator's discussion fairly superficial and politically motivated (do we need yet another discussion of Democratic talking points on "Russian election interference"?). So in this segment, I will merge my pro-liberty perspective in discussion.

On trade, both Trump and Biden are protectionist and economically illiterate. For some reason, Biden never pointed out TTIP or TPP, which were pursued under Obama and trashed by Trump; TPP doesn't even include China in the region, so the US departure is arguably counterproductive to our influence in the region. Biden asserted China must play by the rules, wasn't clear how he would deal with China vs. Trump on specific policy differences; he didn't really address the fallout or blowback from "Tariff Man"'s policies. Trump falsely claims "China"  (not American citizens) paid his tariffs and claims credit for paying farmers relief from tariff proceeds, not pointing out that this was retaliation for his unilateral tariffs on China. Trump's tariffs were not only counterproductive but at the expense of American consumers paying higher prices. Biden responded that the trade deficit has expanded during Trump's tenure; neither Trump nor Biden understand the concept of a trade deficit.

We saw a brief skirmish on Biden's criticism of Trump's undiplomatic relations with traditional allies, while Trump takes credit for higher defense spending by the same. As a libertarian, I have concerns about a bloated defense budget and foreign entanglements.

No discussion of the fact we still have troops exposed in the Gulf Region, including Afghanistan.

On the election interference talking point, no discussion of the hypocrisy and fact of US involvement in foreign elections. Biden basically complained Trump has been AWOL on the alleged domestic vulnerability issue (Russia, China, Iran, etc.)  Trump responds that he has been very tough on Russian sanction and counterattacks Biden has taken foreign money. Biden argues that effectively Trump has a pay to play scheme, e.g., do business with Trump hotel properties. Trump brings up Hunter Biden.

There is some discussion of whether Trump's relationship with the North Korean dictator has been productive given North Korea's ongoing missile program; Trump sees his approach as an improvement over Obama/Biden's.

Bottom line: both Trump and Biden oppose free trade, support economic sanctions and are military interventionists with nuanced differences.

SCOTUS/ObamaCare/COVID-19 Relief

We already know Biden believes the RBG replacement should be decided by the election winner and Trump's position is that it is his and the current Senate's responsibility to fill the vacancy. So the question was more like what's to become of ObamaCare, say if SCOTUS with a prospective Justice Barrett strikes down ObamaCare? What about coverage for those with preexisting health concerns? And complicating things further, what about COVID-19 exposure which may ultimately become a long-term health issue?

Biden thinks that the GOP is trying to sabotage when they repeatedly failed to do in Congress, repeal and replace. He points out Trump still hasn't fleshed out his own healthcare proposal; he may talk covering preexisting conditions but where's his plan? He proposes a "public option", wants to enable Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices.

Trump takes credit for eliminating the unpopular individual mandate and dismisses Biden's proposals as socialized medicine. 

Biden faults Trump and the Senate GOP for bottlenecking COVID relief. Trump takes credit for signing into law prior COVID relief while blaming Pelosi for the Congressional stalemate. He doesn't want to bail out Dem-controlled cities and states. There's a related squabble over minimum wage; Trump sees it as a state issue  and notes that raising the cost of labor is counterproductive in a recession. Trump also tries to link blue state fiscal issues to the costs of supporting unauthorized aliens.

Both Biden and Trump favor federal involvement in healthcare, and there are all sorts of issues with prior COVID-relief, including in many cases people making more money in unemployment than at their regular jobs.  Biden's public option is a de facto interim step to nationalized healthcare. Seriously, what company can compete against a government which operates $28T in the red?

Immigration

Biden condemns the Trump Administration policies on unauthorized migrants, including the cruel family separation policy, not to mention the targeting of Dreamers (unauthorized foreign-born residents who entered the country as children). Trump accuses Biden of hypocrisy, arguing the Obama Administration  were the ones who built the camps in question and also separated some families. 

Biden has the better argument. Trump's family separation policy was unprecedented in nature or extent, although some separations did occur under Obama. But the fact is Obama did not prioritize immigration reform in the 111th Congress; the Dems only moved on Dreamers after they lost the first midterm, and Obama's Dreamer executive action was unconstitutional, not originating in Congress. The Dems have generally opposed immigration reform based on constituent labor union protectionism.

Racism: The Talk

The moderator is referencing that black parents have to explain to their children that they can be victims of racial profiling by authorities and what protocols to follow to ensure their safety if addressed by a policeman. 

Trump argues that he's done a lot for minorities, including criminal justice reform, opportunity zones, the lowest unemployment numbers in recorded history, etc. He accuses Biden of all talk, no action, whose 1994 crime bill threw a lot of blacks into prison.

Biden talks about incentivizing states to abandon minimum sentencing and not incarcerating heavy drug users but getting them treatment.

I would have liked to hear more discussion about qualified immunity, civil asset forfeiture, occupational licensing reform, etc. Prosecution of victimless crimes is abominable, and imprisoning a disproportionate number of Americans (and blacks making up a disproportionate number of those) is morally unacceptable.

Climate Change

Trump argues that the Paris reforms created an economic disadvantage relative to China, India, and developing markets who were exempt for several years. He argues that fracking and cheap natural gas have led much lower American carbon emissions.

Biden is once again selling Obama's industrial policy of trying to generate jobs and wealth through "investments" in green technology.

Trump clearly has the better argument here. I'm surprised that he didn't challenge economically illiterate Biden on clean nuclear power or the various scandals like Solyndra under Obama.