As I write, RCP has Biden with a firm command of 222 electoral votes and some 201 in tossups. This means he only needs 48/201 in tossups. Biden could do it in a number of ways, e.g., AZ and TX. If the election was held today, it sees Biden with 356, with Biden recapturing WI, MI, and PA, plus AZ, FL, NC and OH. The no-tossup look for Senate is equally bleak with only an AL pickup for the GOP, and MT, CO, AZ, IA, NC, and ME looking ripe for the Dems.
But recall in 1988, Dukakis had a 17-point lead over Bush at this stage, nearly double Biden's lead, and went on to lose by 8 points or so. Could this happen again? Unlikely. It was unprecedented in recent American history. Dukakis was a largely unknown left-liberal challenger in a center-right nation, not an incumbent. He really never responded effectively to the Willie Horton issue. This involved a weekend furlough program for prisoners, not intended to apply to convicted murderers like Horton. A Massachusetts court basically argued since this was not specifically stipulated in the law, such exclusions were unlawful. Where Dukakis became culpable was when the Massachusetts legislature tried to patch the loophole, the first-term self-styled reformer governor vetoed the statutory exclusion. In fact, he would later go on to commute the sentences of over 40 murderers. The furlough program would finally be abolished after scrutiny in the press and as Dukakis prepared to run for President during his third (nonconsecutive) term.
Willie Horton had fatally stabbed a man to death in 1974 and was sentenced to life without parole. Late in Dukakis' second term (1986), Horton took advantage of the furlough program and didn't return to prison. Months later, he resurfaced in Maryland where he had violently attacked an engaged couple and twice raped the woman in question.
Bush didn't raise the furlough issue in the campaign; Gore did, although not explicitly using Horton as the poster boy for the program. Dems to this day argue that the infamous Horton ad was racially motivated and unfair. But Horton was released on Dukakis' watch, and it was Dukakis' veto that made it possible.
Dukakis' second major issue dealt with his position on the death penalty in a debate where he was asked to say if he favored it on the hypothetical rape and murder of his own wife. His ambivalent, stick-to-principle response didn't go over well.
So why all this discussion? Well, Bush really focused on a peripheral (to a national election) theme of law and order; this is a local/state responsibility. It did, to some degree, call into question Dukasis' judgment and values.
It is no accident that Trump has been pandering to local law enforcement and has been pushing law and order from his start in politics. In part, his focus on the post-Floyd protests and dubious introduction of DHS troops in Portland and/or other cities are parts to play that theme in the context of the campaign. I fully expect Trump to try to box Biden in on the "defund police" leftist movement, the real intent being to divide-and-conquer the Dem coalition. I don't think it's going to work. For one thing, Biden has been a criminal justice hawk his whole Senate career, and the leftists see Biden as preferable to Trump.
I remember knowing fairly early in the 1992 and 2008 campaigns that the Republican candidates were done. I was surprised by not shocked by Trump's upset win in 2016. Why? For one thing, if you look at the last few polls in RCP, you'll see Clinton's lead at 3 or less in several polls, overall 3.2. This was fairly close to the margin of error, and that doesn't really tell us where those votes are. Her final vote was actually up by 2. Trump won 3 decisive states (WI, MI, PA) in photo finishes. Of course, a poll is only as good as its underlying model.
The circumstances are not promising for Trump. His biggest calling card has been the booming economy. The COVID-19 recession is the sharpest correction since they've maintained records:
The longest economic expansion in American history is officially over. The National Bureau of Economic Research declared [in June] that the recession began in February.The economy collapsed so rapidly that NBER wasted no time in announcing a recession, a stark contrast to previous downturns when the body took upwards of a year to declare what most people already knew. This was the fastest that NBER has declared any recession since the group began formal announcements in 1979.
Recessions ended the Carter and Bush 41 Presidencies. The Democrats have also been the strongest social welfare backers in times of economic uncertainty; now Trump hasn't taken on politically unpopular social welfare reform, but his party is the more fiscally conservative one.
Trump's management of the COVID-19 crisis has been poorly received, especially in this late spring/early summer, and his impatience to reopen things (since trying to reopen things by Easter to fiscal threats against public schools who do not return to in-person instruction this fall) is seen as risky and dangerous. With nearly two-thirds questioning his leadership in a crisis touching almost everyone (unemployment, work changes, shopping, entertainment, etc.), Trump has seen his ratings in some cases dropping to a low of 40 or worse.
Is he done? Not yet. As I write, Biden hasn't named his VP and a hard-left platform could hurt him, not to mention a poor performance at any debates; Trump has an incumbent's advantage. I've seen some polls with Trump leading in AZ, GA, TX and WI and several states within 5 percent. The latest national poll in RCP showed Biden leading by 4. near the margin of error.
What I'm looking for is to see if Biden gets and holds 50% or higher and holds a lead of 5 points or more in battleground states. I do think Trump has an uphill climb, but any combination of things, including a possible Biden gaffe or controversy, stumble at a debate, etc., or the economy picking up and/or the COVID-19 crisis improving, could improve Trump's chances down the stretch..
Maybe Scott Adams is right: Trump is a clown genius and is holding some aces in his hand he's not revealing yet. I know what I would do holding Trump's hands; maybe I'll reveal it after he loses. I don't want to help him, as much as I despise the idea of Biden as POTUS. (By the way, I still intend to vote for Jo Jorgensen.)
