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Monday, February 24, 2020

Post #4485 Commentary The State of the Union Part III

For earlier posts in this series, see part I and part II. This is the third and final installment.

I also promised our citizens that I would impose tariffs to confront China’s massive theft of America’s jobs. Our strategy has worked. Days ago we signed the groundbreaking new agreement with China that will defend our workers, protect our intellectual property, brings billions and billions of dollars into our Treasury, and open vast new markets for products made and grown right here in the USA.For decades, China has taken advantage of the United States. Now we have changed that. But at the same time, we have perhaps the best relationship we’ve ever had with China, including with President Xi. They respect what we’ve done because, quite frankly, they could never really believe that they were able to get away with what they were doing year after year, decade after decade, without someone in our country stepping up and saying, “that’s enough.”
There are so many things wrong with what Trump says here, it's difficult to know where to start. 

First of all, Trump's tariffs are NOT paid by China. They are paid by importers and passed on to American businesses and consumers. "Billions and billions" are de facto taxes on Americans and they have a negative effect on business cost controls and American living standards (higher prices, less selection). Trump's redistribution of these taxes to farmers and other politically connected interest groups, e.g., affected by retaliatory Chinese responses to Trump's unprovoked trade wars,  is a type of socialism.

Second, "for decades, China has taken advantage of the United States" is protectionist bullshit. Free trade is win-win. No one forces Americans to buy value-priced goods from China. Moreover, many components sourced in Chinese goods are made in America, yes, supporting American businesses and jobs. There have been some adjustments as certain American factories were no longer globally cost-competitive, but there are other benefits to consumer benefits of lower prices, including savings and/or additional goods and services. Moreover, Chinese purchases of Treasury debt help bolster the dollar and make servicing the humongous national debt more affordable.

Third, the pretentious "IP protection" issue is a red herring. I will refer the interested reader to the brilliant free market economist Donald Boudreaux from George Mason University and Cafe Hayek. In a recent column, Boudreaux exposed Trump's disingenuous rhetoric, pointing out the Trump has not lodged relevant complaints with the WTO (while his own trade wars have themselves violated WTO rules). He points out that the IP technology transfers demanded by China in doing business there are a type of tax which companies can refuse to agree to, at a cost to the Chinese economy. This is not about subordinating American consumer interests to vaguely defined IP concerns; it's about the fact that Trump is unhappy American consumers want to buy Chinese products. And Trump's tariffs are about punishing American consumers for choosing Chinese products.

As an aside, I completely agree with Boudreaux's arguments for unilateral free trade. In particular, protectionists, including American leftists/Democrats, try to similarly rationalize protectionism, no better than Trump's, on labor, environment, or other arbitrary policy grounds. (Notice that Trump's earlier referenced arguments on USMCA cited relevant points to win Democrat support.)

Note that Trump's mercantilist phase one deal with China still leaves a roughly 20% tariff/tax on American consumer purchasers of many, if not most Chinese goods. We want governments to get out of the business of micromanaging the choices of US and Chinese consumers. I don't want political whores like Trump decide what and how many American goods and services are to be purchased by Chinese. One billion Chinese can decide that.


As we restore American leadership throughout the world, we are once again standing up for freedom in our hemisphere. That’s why my administration reversed the failing policies of the previous administration on Cuba. We are supporting the hopes of Cubans, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans. To restore Democracy, the United States is leading a 59-nation diplomatic coalition against the socialist dictator of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro.
Economic sanctions are an immoral counterproductive form of warfare against other nations. Obama started minor steps to ending a regrettable, unjustifiable target of Cuba, and Trump here boasts of reversing course, probably a paying off a political chit to Cuban-American support in south Florida. Trump's meddling in the internal affairs of Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela is counterproductive and plays into the hands of socialist dictatorial regimes looking to rally support against the scapegoats of ugly Americans. Make no mistake--as a libertarian, I oppose authoritarian regimes as a point of principle. But I see economic trade as a stabilizing policy; usually countries don't try to kill their customers.


Socialism destroys nations, but always remember, freedom unifies the soul. To safeguard American liberty, we have invested a record-breaking $2.2 trillion in the United States military. 
We spend trillions we don't have to support an over-extended, meddling military still tied down in Afghanistan and Iraq more than a dozen years after Bush 43 left the White House. Trump has actually supersized unconstitutional drone war and is outspending the next 6 biggest spending nations on national defense combined.


The next step forward in building an inclusive society is making sure that every young American gets a great education and the opportunity to achieve the American dream. Yet for too long, countless American children have been trapped in failing government schools. To rescue these students, 18 states have created school choice in the form of opportunity scholarships....Now I call on Congress to give 1 million American children the same opportunity Janiyah has just received. Pass the Education Freedom Scholarships and Opportunities Act because no parent should be forced to send their child to a failing government school...Tonight, I ask Congress to support our students and back my plan to offer vocational and technical education in every single high school in America. 
I don't have an issue with education choice (and in fact I would prefer to privatize education altogether). There are two principal  objections I have here: (1) I see education as a state/local, not federal responsibility; (2) Trump almost never funds new spending from cuts elsewhere. Given a projected $1T deficit this year, I want Trump to show me the money.


A good life for American families also requires the most affordable, innovative and high-quality health care system on earth. Before I took office, health insurance premiums had more than doubled in just five years. I moved quickly to provide affordable alternatives. Our new plans are up to 60 percent less expensive, and better. I’ve also made an ironclad pledge to American families, we will always protect patients with preexisting conditions...132 lawmakers in this room have endorsed legislation to impose a socialist takeover of our healthcare system, wiping out the private health insurance plans of 180 million very happy Americans. To those watching at home tonight, I want you to know, we will never let socialism destroy American healthcare.
Trump actually has taken some positive steps here, although I would prefer to see healthcare restored to traditional state regulation (if not privatized, period; I do think the federal government has a free market role to ensure against state insurance/regulatory cartels and to enable interstate risk pools) and I think Trump is not explaining it well. It seems like the Trump administration is streamlining the list of expensive mandatory benefit coverage beyond comprehensive health and helping establish publicly funded reinsurance pools.

As for the socialism soundbite, note that the federal government is deeply intertwined already in the healthcare sector with VA hospitals, Medicaid, and Medicare, and I haven't seen Trump introduce any market-based reforms (other than some veteran flexibility outside the VA hospital system) in major programs.


Over 130 legislators in this chamber have endorsed legislation that would bankrupt our nation by providing free taxpayer-funded health care to millions of illegal aliens, forcing taxpayers to subsidize free care for anyone in the world who unlawfully crosses our borders. These proposals would raid the Medicare benefits of our seniors and that our seniors depend on, while acting as a powerful lure for illegal immigration. That is what is happening in California and other states. Their systems are totally out of control, costing taxpayers vast and unaffordable amounts of money. If forcing American taxpayers to provide free unlimited health care to illegal aliens sounds fair to you, then stand with the radical left, but if you believe we should defend American patients and American seniors, then stand with me and pass legislation to prohibit free government health care for illegal aliens. 
As I've tweeted, unauthorized aliens amount to less than 4% of the American population and tend to be younger, healthier people. Trump's scapegoating of unauthorized immigrants is absolutely unethical and reprehensible. RAND Corporation has examined this issue and concluded: "The Public Spends Little to Provide Health Care for Undocumented Immigrants". I think it's helpful to republish a significant excerpt:
Of the $430 billion in national medical spending in 2000, native-born residents accounted for 87 percent of the population but for 91.5 percent of the spending. Foreign-born residents, who include undocumented immigrants, accounted for 13 percent of the population but for only 8.5 percent of the spending. Undocumented immigrants — 3.2 percent of the population — accounted for only about 1.5 percent of medical costs. 
Foreign-born residents use less funding from public insurers (such as Medicare and Medicaid) and pay more out-of-pocket costs for health care than do native-born residents — a pattern that is even more pronounced for undocumented immigrants. 
The lower medical spending is driven by lower utilization of services. Utilization data from Los Angeles County show that many foreign-born residents had almost no contact with the formal health care system. For example, whereas only about a tenth of native-born residents had never had a checkup, that fraction jumped to a quarter for foreign-born residents and to a third for undocumented immigrants. Moreover, because Los Angeles County is known as an immigrant-friendly location for services, the estimates for the nation may be lower for undocumented immigrant service use and, thus, may be lower for medical costs. 
A number of reasons account for the lower utilization, but one key reason is that immigrants — especially the undocumented — appear to be healthier than native-born residents.

This will be a tremendous boon to our already very strongly guarded southern border, where as we speak a lNot ong, tall and very powerful wall is being built. We have now completed over 100 miles and have over 500 miles fully completed in a very short period of time. 
First of all, Trump's demagoguery on unauthorized immigrants has been reprehensible and indefensible, including false allegations of Mexico dumping violent prisoners across the border. Second, there are far easier and less costly mechanisms; for example, the bracero program in the 1950's, legalizing foreign workers, brought down arrests around 90%. Third, much of the southern border is owned by private citizens, tribes, etc. , which means court battles over eminent domain. Not to mention much of wall building has been replacement vs. new fence building. Fourth, David Bier wrote an extensive article in Reason explaining why the wall won't work. It would take too long to summarize here, but let's just saw natural causes (flooding, storms, etc.) can erode barriers, the Border Patrol has had to patch thousands of holes, much fencing is vulnerable to conventional workarounds like fence climbing, ladders and ropes, wire cutters, etc., opaque walls also limit Border Patrol attempts to anticipate what is happening over the wall, tunneling technology exists, aliens can simply migrate to easier barrier points (e.g., from San Diego to Yuma), etc. Just as important, barriers also tend to deter workers from leaving, e.g., because of the difficulty in returning.


My administration is also taking on the big pharmaceutical companies. We have approved a record number of affordable generic drugs, and medicines are being approved by the FDA at a faster clip than ever before. And I was pleased to announce last year that, for the first time in 51 years, the cost of prescription drugs actually went down.  And working together, Congress can reduce drug prices substantially from current levels...I’m calling for bipartisan legislation that achieves the goal of dramatically lowering prescription drug prices. 

Whereas the Trump Administration has made much-needed reforms in addressing generic drug backlogs, there has been a lag in marketing approved generics for complex reasons. What seems troubling is Trump's attempts to link prices to indexes of prescription prices in often country-controlled price lists. As Bailey points out, pricing in these areas is often linked to an offset to marginal costs of production, not linked to the costs of development to market. These countries often lag in innovative drugs to market; similar pricing would likely reduce the incentive for US industry to bring new drugs to market, which would not be in our interests in the long term. Other libertarian ideas include opening the market to foreign-approved generics, prioritizing approvals linked to market competition (high prices), and patent reform/licensing rights/public drug development incentives.

As we support America’s moms and dads, I was recently proud to sign the law providing new parents in the federal workforce paid family leave, serving as a model for the rest of the country...Now I call on Congress to pass the bipartisan Advancing Support for Working Families Act, extending family leave to mothers and fathers all across our nation.
I have issues with costly new benefits to the already expensive federal workforce, much of which should be eliminated or at least decentralized to states. And I think the private sector should decide what benefits to attract and retain workers vs. expensive federal mandates. There's no such thing as a free lunch; businesses pay market-based compensation for employees and higher benefits often are funded as an offset to other compensation, i.e., salary. 

We must also rebuild America’s infrastructure. 
Infrastructure has been a dubious part of federal policy since at least back in the day of Henry Clay's American system. In many cases (e.g., roads/highways) the government has displaced private investment. The history of public ownership is a variation on the tragedy of the commons, i.e., if everybody owns it, nobody owns it. Take government involvement in the development of transcontinental railways; it's a case history of corruption. Poorly maintained, overcrowded highways, bridges, dams, etc., are the inevitable consequence when the private sector is not vested. I prefer total privatization, but at least the Republican policy preference for leveraging public money through private partnerships is an improvement over Democratic Keynesian delusions of multiplier effects in public expenditures.

A better tomorrow for all Americans also requires us to keep America safe. That means supporting the men and women of law enforcement at every level, including our nation’s heroic ICE officers...      Tragically, there are many cities in America where radical politicians have chosen to provide sanctuary for these criminal aliens. In sanctuary cities, local officials order police to release dangerous criminal aliens to prey upon the public, instead of handing them over to ICE to be safely removed...The state of California passed an outrageous law declaring their whole state to be a sanctuary for criminal illegal immigrants, a very terrible sanctuary with catastrophic results...I ask Congress to pass the Justice for Victims of Sanctuary Cities Act immediately. The United States of America should be a sanctuary for law-abiding Americans, not criminal aliens... With every action my administration is restoring the rule of law and reasserting the culture of American freedom. 
There are few things that piss me off more than Trump's abominably and demonstrably false, racially-biased, despicable demagoguery on unauthorized immigration. It's necessary here to excerpt Cato Institute's Alex Nowrasteh on the topic of criminal immigrants:
It is difficult to know whether illegal immigrants are more likely to commit crimes than native-born Americans are.  All immigrants have a lower criminal incarceration rate and there are lower crime rates in the neighborhoods where they live, according to the near-unanimous findings of the peer-reviewed evidence.  Since 1911, large nationwide federal immigration commissions have asked whether immigrants are more crime-prone than native-born Americans and each one of them answered no, even when the rest of their reports unjustifiably blamed immigrants for virtually every problem in the United States.  From the 1911 Immigration Commission, also known as the Dillingham Commission, to the 1931 Wickersham Commission, and 1994’s Barbara Jordan Commission, each has reported that immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than native-born Americans... 
Michelangelo Landgrave, a doctoral student in political science at the University of California, Riverside, and I released a paper today that estimates that illegal immigrant incarceration rates are about half those of native-born Americans in 2017.  In the same year, legal immigrant incarceration rates are then again half those of illegal immigrants.  Those results are similar to what Landgrave and I published for the years 2014 and 2016.  
The second strand of research from Cato looks at criminal conviction rates by immigration status in the state of Texas...But even here, illegal immigrant conviction rates are about half those of native-born Americans – without any controls for age, education, ethnicity, or any other characteristic.  The illegal immigrant conviction rates for homicide, larceny, and sex crimes are also below those of native-born Americans... crime along the Mexican border is much lower than in the rest of the country, homicide rates in Mexican states bordering the United States are not correlated with homicide rates here, El Paso’s border fence did not lower crime, Texas criminal conviction rates remain low (but not as low) when recidivism is factored in, and that police clearance rates are not lower in states with many illegal immigrants – which means that they don’t escape conviction by leaving the country after committing crimes.  
 Sociologists Michael Light and Ty Miller found that a higher illegal immigrant population does not increase violent crime rates.  
As for Trump's obsession with sanctuary cities, the idea that the states are subordinate to the federal government is a clear violation of the conservative principle of federalism. Local authorities have a vested interest in public safety and to gain the confidence of local communities.

Last week I announced a groundbreaking plan for peace between Israel and the Palestinians...Three years ago, the barbarians of ISIS held over 20,000 square miles of territory in Iraq and Syria. Today the ISIS territorial caliphate has been 100 percent destroyed and the founder and leader of ISIS, the bloodthirsty killer known as al-Baghdadi, is dead...The terrorist responsible for killing Sergeant Hake was Qassem Soleimani, who provided the deadly roadside bomb that took Chris’s life. Soleimani was the Iranian regime’s most ruthless butcher, a monster who murdered or wounded thousands of American service members in Iraq. As the world’s top terrorist, Soleimani orchestrated the death of countless men, women and children. He directed the December assault and went on to assault U.S. forces in Iraq, was actively planning new attacks, when we hit him very hard, and that’s why last month at my direction the U.S. military executed a flawless precision strike that killed Soleimani and terminated his evil reign of terror forever.
Basically, Trump's "peace plan" makes a mockery of the idea of a Palestinian state on the West Bank with the Israeli military omnipresent. Trump didn't advance the cause of peace by unilaterally and preemptively recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital. Whereas ISIS currently does not control formerly held territory, it has not gone away but has simply moved underground. As for Soleimani, he was an Iranian general, and we are not at war with Iran. Trump's assassination of Soleimani was a war crime, a premeditated act that had been planned for the right opportunity, which occurred when he was in Iraq to respond to a Saudi peace initiative. This sham post hoc rationalization of an impending attack is a complete fabrication. Trump's assassination of Soleimani could have triggered an unnecessary war without constitutional Congressional authorization.

My stand as a libertarian on Trump's foreign policy is that it is a complete failure. We have no business meddling in the Middle East, and our involvement there has a risk of blowback.