Let's unpack that a bit. First of all, Presidents have little direct control over the private economy; businesses respond to markets, regulations, tax policy, resources (including labor availability), competition, available financing, etc. Presidents have some methods of facilitating business growth, e.g., by minimizing economic uncertainty over federal policy (particularly regulations and employer mandates), promoting free trade with other countries (opening up new markets, alternate suppliers), opening up government land for resource development, establishing more globally competitive tax policies and removing labor market restrictions (e.g., visiting foreign worker quotas).
From my view, Trump's record is quite mixed. On the plus side, he's engaged in regulatory overhaul, opened more land to energy development, scaled back regulatory overreach (like Obama's expanded definition of the "waters of the US"), eliminated the healthcare insurance individual mandate, delivered long-overdue lower, flatter business tax reform and a transition to more of a territorial tax policy like most of other countries with developed economies, and liberalized the Internet from the "net neutrality" toehold of federal intervention. On the other hand, his unprovoked tariff wars have been counterproductive by raising prices and/or limiting choices for Americans, adversely affecting their standard of living and probably subtracting from our national growth rate; moreover, our trading partners will engage in their own responses, targeting American exporters. Keep in mind about half of our imports are resources for businesses; increased costs get passed along to consumers. For example, tariffs on steel or aluminum imports may benefit domestic companies and their labor force to a limited extent (a classic example of "concentrated benefits and diffuse costs"), but they hurt companies which use steel or aluminum in their products, certainly putting them at a global market disadvantage.
Now clearly the Obama Administration with its regulatory overreach dropped the US on most global freedom indexes; for example, the Index of Economic Freedom has put the US back into the top 12 under Trump, but it's still below the rank under any year under George W. Bush. On the other hand, Freedom House has downgraded the US under Trump, noting his disdain for our constitutional checks and balances (my own observation, consider his unauthorized transfer of military funds for his Southern border wall), his uncooperative response to the recent impeachment inquiry, bashing of the press ("fake news"), reprisal firings and attacks on whistleblowers, and attacks on the judiciary, including a proposal to cut the number of judges.
Of course, Trump is going to hype his "accomplishments", but despite his hyperbole, you can argue that many of his initial claims, like jobs, incomes, poverty, and crime, are little more than extensions of longer-term trends, from the Obama Presidency or even earlier (e.g., poverty and crime), in large part independent of his own efforts. [I'm not arguing Obama had the "magic touch", but the resilient economy has improved on its own, without the megalomaniac delusions of Obama or Trump.] In addition, crime is mostly a state/local issue. Whereas job statistics show an improvement, partly that's an artifact of how you define the labor force and (the quality of) jobs (e.g., part-time vs. full-time work). Not to mention the labor force participation rate is still about 2 points below where it was when Obama became President; while Boomer retirements are part of the story (counterbalanced by a trend of working senior citizens), you still see a shortfall of other (e.g., younger) workers not participating in the economy. And some of the labor demand is for, e.g., foreign workers accommodating skills lacked by domestic workers; Trump's anti-immigrant policies have adversely impacted, e.g., the high tech industry.
Not to mention US economic growth has not reached the long-term annual trend of about 3.2%; we last saw 3% annual growth in the middle of Bush 43's tenure. Now to some extent that's partially an artifact of the US economy's scale (it's harder to grow an already large economy), but let's keep in mind there are some methodological issues with comparing data over time--differences in data collection, longitudinal vs. summary figures, adjusting for inflation, etc.
As for Trump's claim to the US being highly respected abroad, let's quote from Gallup's 2019 survey:
The global approval rating of U.S. leadership sits at its lowest level for any of the past three U.S. administrations. This low rating could have implications for U.S. "soft power" -- getting people to go along with policies because they want to -- and billions in U.S. trade.America' enemies are on the run? We are still tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan; so much for the "America First" POTUS. His enabling Saudi Arabia's genocide in Yemen doesn't win us friends in the region. In many cases, Trump's unconstitutional drone wars and collateral damage exacerbate anti-Americanism. Our meddling in other global regions is very costly and our defense budget vastly exceeds what we need for actual defense, being situated between 2 non-hostile countries.
I am thrilled to report to you tonight that our economy is the best it has ever been. Our military is completely rebuilt, with its power being unmatched anywhere in the world — and it is not even close. Our borders are secure. Our families are flourishing. Our values are renewed. Our pride is restored.Well, hyperbole needs to meet reality: the military isn't meeting its recruitment goals. The $1T Lockheed Martin F35 program is still plagued by delayed deliveries, cost overruns, software problems, etc. Our military is to a large extent still tied down in the Middle East.
As for unauthorized immigrants, as I've repeatedly mentioned, the total number has actually declined since 2007 for economic and other reasons. Apprehensions, a proxy for estimating actual, undetected aliens, are way down from the 2000's. Plus, keep in mind a third of unauthorized immigrants entered the US legally, e.g., overstayed visas. Trump's travel restrictions, family separation policies, et al., are a violation to our heritage of open immigration and the rule of law.
The unemployment rate is the lowest in over half a century.This is basically sales hype. First of all, the government hasn't measured this throughout its history. Second, he was inflating his jobs numbers by about 10%. Third, we were nearly at full employment using traditional heuristics by the end of the Obama Administration. Fourth, if you judge by number or percent growth rate of jobs, Trump's numbers, since he assumed the Presidency, are below those of his post-WWII predecessors. Economic growth and job growth, for instance, were far better under Reagan and Clinton vs. Trump.
Incredibly, the average unemployment rate under my Administration is lower than any administration in the history of our country. If we had not reversed the failed economic policies of the previous administration, the world would not now be witness to America’s great economic success.
I will continue my critique in prospective future posts. It's a lot easier to spout hype than to refute it.
