One should always be wary of polls at this point of the election cycle; in 2007 McCain's campaign had imploded and his ratings shrank to single-digits, and in 2011, the GOP had a volatile change of front runners, with Romney, like McCain, an early leader, only to fade in favor of Bachman, Trump, Perry, Cain, and Gingrich ). Giuliani had locked up nearly a quarter of the vote by the fall of 2007, and Santorum, who had lost his Senate reelection by 20 points in a purple state (in terms of electability if you can't beat Casey, how can you beat Obama?), came from the single-digits to give Romney a run for his money after Florida.
One thing is clear: some of Rand Paul's supporters defected to Trump. Part of what Rand Paul must assess is why. It's not so much policy, but it's more of a "I'm mad as hell, and I'm not going to take it anymore" attitude, capturing the understandable mood of frustration of the center-right which has had to endure the nearly 7 years of the failed Barack Obama presidency. They are frustrated about a finally GOP-controlled Congress, the leadership of which is all too aware of the fact that either chamber of Congress sustain an Obama veto. They feel Trump is modeling their own frustrations and admire how his wealth shields him from the PC crowd.
I have never been paid a single penny as a political pundit, so this post and $5 will get you a Starbucks coffee, but here are some general comments how I might respond, facing Paul's circumstances:
- Have Realistic Expectations. The pro-liberty forces are still a minority in Congress, and chances of picking up the support of neocon candidates are, at best, dubious. After all, Ron Paul got 8-12% of the 2012 (GOP) Presidential vote against a weaker field. To a number of voters, a pro-liberty agenda means economic uncertainty, anarchy and chaos in government policy, and austerity at their expense. Paul will need to educate voters on the unreliability of government policy. Like in the case of his father, Rand probably needs to work on building a base and honing a message that requires multiple election cycles.
- Focus on Young People, Moderates, the Well-Educated, and Principled Libertarians and Conservatives. It may well help to aim at winning some caucuses, which would probably boost his credibility and numbers elsewhere.
- Use the Doctor Archetype. Of course, I am mindful that Ben Carson can exploit a similar line, but the idea is a folksy doctor, talking about some straight news about the nation's health, about the wisdom of "first, do no harm" politics, diagnosing massive debt, government overreach, warning about his competitors treating the symptoms vs. the disease.
- Avoid Negative Ads: Use Humor. Donald Trump knows how to play the victim card, and you're not going to best Trump in a battle of flames--the only thing you do is drive up your own unfavorables. But I could see some viral ads against Trump, e.g., using a mockup of the variation of the popular Monopoly game where Trump cards allow you to declare eminent domain on adjacent properties and add hotels, where you can draw a "get out of bankruptcy" card, where you collect a million dollars from other players and proceed to go and collect one billion dollars from the bank. (This is a freebie to the Paul campaign...) Another example might be a takeoff on "Presidential Apprentice" where the voters in November 2016 tell Trump that he's fired; challenging Trump to a "shave-your-head-bald" wrestling match with a Marine barber; or running a variation of the Match Game where contestants try to identify Trump's positions and the panelists identify contradictory opinions; holding a mock debate between the Donald the Younger and Donald the Elder or Donald the Democrat vs. Donald the Republican.
- Focus on Attacking 16 Years of Government Failure and Anemic Economic Growth Under the Bush and Obama Administrations. Focus on the Fed, how nation building has cost the US thousands of casualties and over $1T we didn't have. Point out we don't have the resources to get involved in regional conflicts; we need to count to 10 before trying to resolve the disputes of allies, the concept of moral hazard in foreign policy.
- Develop an Alternative Populist Message Focusing on Restoring Control Over One's Life From Federal Government Elitists To the Individual and the Local Community. No more of the FDA setting guidelines to school lunches, no police militarization, no centralized education mandates, no unaccountable IPAB, no FCC empire building over the Internet, etc.
- Run Against Washington, DC Business As Usual; Point Out That You Are Not a Professional Politician and You Have Filibustered to Make a Difference. Part of Trump's quixotic appeal is the ultimate insider has been running against the GOP establishment.
- Avoid Sounding Like Other Candidates; Try to Recast Issues From a Fresh Pro-Liberty Perspective. Don't talk the usual soundbites of "build a fence, increase the Border Patrol, etc." For example, point out that trade and immigration are positive for American economy growth, that government restrictions, like shutting down the Bracero program and pressing non-economic policy issues (e.g., the environment and labor union demands) have exacerbated issues. Point out that we have the most highly incarcerated population in the world, that federal imprisonment rates have skyrocketed at the expense of the taxpayers and ruining people's lives, that our priorities should not be on punishing victimless crimes.
- Argue That You Are Running As the President Of Peace and Prosperity. We have been been at nearly nonstop war over the past century, which has cost innumerable lives and huge demands on the Treasury; we need to pick our battles more carefully ("haste makes waste") and avoid exacerbating global tensions in trade and regional conflicts. Point out that unlike your opponents, you are not looking to add to the empire building of the Presidency or Congress but to restore balance in government and shift government services and empowerment back to the state and local government and to cut the federal government's strings restraining more localized government innovation and business hiring.
- We Need to Vest Bureaucrats and Legislators in Efficient, Focused Governance: Run Against the Government Debt and Stack of Government Regulations. Talk in terms of some variation of zero-based budgeting and regulation.
- Reassert Constitutional Control Over Monetary Policy: Eliminate the Fed's Second Mandate and Discretionary Authority, Shrink the Federal Reserves Empire, and Fully Audit the Fed On an Ongoing Basis.
- Develop a Privatization Agenda. Start with disentangling the federal government's control over the healthcare sector, flood insurance, college student financing, mortgage securitization, etc.
I do not pretend that this list is exhaustive, and quite frankly it reflects my personal policy preferences. But I do think that it's a starting point for a retooled campaign.
