Trump's Reelection "Strategy"
I actually intended to mention this in my latest commentary. Trump continues to baffle me; in particular, he got what has to be the most predictable question of all time: what is your second-term agenda? We got a response by any measure which was meandering and unresponsive. It seemed to be another attempt to brag about the genius behind his 2016 campaign. Trumpism by its very nature is unprincipled; he seems to see himself as uniquely qualified to be President, that the issues aren't as important as his judgment.
I'm opposed to Trump's reelection, so I'm not about to give him free advice on what I would do in his place. I fully expect him to run a snarky, negative campaign against Biden. Negative campaigns by unpopular incumbents can work; I've often mentioned Blagojevich's 2006 reelection win about a year after his job approval dipped into the 30's. Trump in particular seems to be arguing that Biden may be in the early stages of dementia (there was a recent tweet where he claims to have passed his mental acuity tests with flying colors and daring Biden to do the same). A lot of "conservative" Trumpkins are picking up on the talking point. Never mind 6 months ago Trumpkins were arguing that the impeachment charge (for the Ukraine Biden investigation demand by Trump) was nonsense because Biden had no chance of getting nominated. As I pointed out in my recent Biden commentary, Trump's allegation about Biden's corruption was wrong and incompetent (Trump was actually arguing the former Ukraine chief prosecutor Shokin was a "very good man" instead of a corrupt one, targeted by the US, EU, IMF and local anti-corruption groups, who sat on cases, allegedly wanting to be paid off); a better point was that Hunter Biden's involvement with the oligarch's Burisma subsidiary could be seen as a possible US conflict of interest in appearance. I think this objection was actually voiced by some in the Obama Administration.
As for the dementia, Trump's attack may well be a double-edged sword. After all, Trump is the idiot who actually brought up using disinfectants to combat COVID-19, suggested that he made a "perfect" phone call to Zelensky, and has denied seeing intelligence reports of bounties on US soldiers' heads in Afghanistan. To say his "diplomacy" has been erratic, unconventional, and counterproductive is an understatement. (Of course, Trumpkins see that as a feature, not a bug; Trump loves being perceived as unpredictable; we've seen this before; McCain thrived on being called a maverick.) Biden is perceived as more even-tempered, reasonable, mature, and less impulsive and self-indulgent. Trump may not want voters to compare their behaviors, because Trump's own unfavorables are off the charts.
But Presidential politics have been personal and hostile from the start, beginning with Adams vs. Jefferson. Will it work? Probably not beyond his own base. Trump has been a high-maintenance President from the start. Most people are tired of the constant drama, the incessant provocative tweeting, Trump's humongous, fragile ego and insecurity.
Is Biden's election a done deal? No. Biden is up by 9, with 3 of those over the magic 50 threshold. Meanwhile, Trump's job approval has dipped near an all-time low of under 42. His followers seem to think lightning can strike twice, that Trump has closet support that will surface in 4 months, just like in 2016. I don't think so. Let's first acknowledge that Trump was responsible for the Dems winning back the House in 2018. Second, Biden's leads are bigger than Clinton's numbers, and Biden is considerably more popular/favorable than Clinton. Third, 2016 was a change year election, and Trump, with no public service record, had the benefit of a doubt. Nobody is undecided about Trump. He's going to have to change the minds of people inclined to vote against him, and I think his primary emphasis on his base will preclude that. Fourth, the COVID-19 handling and economic collapse are unusual circumstances which won't resolve by Election Day, and Trump is one of the few incumbents whose ratings have dropped during the crisis.
Biden's leads in battleground states are narrower and not insurmountable. Some polls are flipping leads, e.g., in Texas and Arizona, but I haven't looked at the sampling statistics. The problem for Trump is I don't see him winning any Clinton state, and Biden seems to have multiple opportunities to convert Trump states, including MI, PA, WI, AZ, NC, FL, GA, and TX, maybe others.
Some have argued that Trump might pull an LBJ and withdraw rather than experience a Reagan-like drubbing of Carter. I don't think so; I do think Trump believes lightning will strike twice and relishes the underdog position. But really the GOP doesn't really have an obvious fallback candidate. It reminds me of how Jack Ryan dropped out of the Senate race against Obama in 2004 over a marital scandal, Alan Keyes, a MD resident and prior GOP POTUS candidate, replaced him, not even winning 30% of the vote. GOP chances are below-water with Trump at this time and negligible without him. Still, 4 months is an eternity in politics, and Biden could have his own Dukakis moment.
The Return of COVID-19 Authoritarianism
Let me be clear: I may be a libertarian, but I don't have a death wish. I would have bought a face mask before I did, except that I found them difficult to find and order; one of my siblings started making homemade ones, and I got mine before Hogan's mandate. The issue is that state and local governments have made Draconian inflexible policies that have had dubious effects on infection rates and mortality at the expense of personal liberty and economic hardship. Fear-mongering is being used to expand the Statist power grab. People are being treated as infected if they fail to wear a mask and are being harassed or attacked, even arrested. Rules are being applied inconsistently and unconstitutionally; a clear example is political protesters were largely exempted from social distancing guidelines, while churches were banned from holding services. Both practices fall under the First Amendment.Reason recently pointed out that Americans are increasingly disenchanted with unenforceable mandates. You really don't want policemen going around ticketing or arresting a large number of healthy people not wearing a mask. You need to lead by persuasion, not by force. One mentioned example was a woman slipping on a mask before entering a supermarket; you need to trust people to exercise common sense. We cannot be paternalistic and force people to protect themselves against catching a virus. Other sources I've seen focusing on authoritarianism under the crisis include Ron Paul, Tom Woods, and various contributors at LewRockwell.com; I've occasionally embedded some videos in my daily miscellany posts.
Why are we seeing an upsurge in cases? I haven't seen any good data (it doesn't mean there aren't any, but I haven't seen them). Of course there is a lag, following a major holiday like Memorial Day and possibly some of the recent post-Floyd political protests (but it seems that leftists regard discussing participation politically incorrect). It could be the virus is mutating into a more infectious form and/or the surge of cases in air-conditioned buildings during a hot summer is exacerbating conditions. If I stumble across relevant explanations, I'll post them in the future.
One of the more positive developments is that fatalities nationwide continue to fall below 1000 a day despite mounting infections. Maybe that'll temporarily change over celebration of the Fourth, but I don't see peak ICU usage which led to skyrocketing deaths, e.g., in Italy. I'm hearing ventilators are now less of an issue than trained professionals in operating them. We need to continue serving "elective surgeries", addressing the needs of people with cancer or strokes, whose interruption in treatment can also be life-threatening.
