COVID-19 Shutdown Diary
I went to Sam's Club for just the second time during the shutdown, interested if any of a few things: were they still staging in customers, were they still out of toilet paper, how the fresh chicken supply issues affected one of the staples on my (and probably most shoppers' ) list, the $5 rotisserie chicken?Yes, to the first question. Somewhat more annoying by the fact it was on the cool side and misty/drizzly weather, and Amazon Alexa really hadn't prepared me; she said it was 68 so I didn't wear my typical parka. It was mostly my fault; I could have gone back. Now I thought on my last visit when I left, I saw no line when I left, so I visited later this time, in the early afternoon. But no luck this time; there must have been a line of a few dozen patrons, and they were staging in maybe a dozen customers at a time every few minutes. I was cold and damp enough to think, "Damn Walmart! If I start coughing, whatever, it won't be COVID-19 but your making me wait outside in this wet shitty weather!"
Yes, they did have a good supply of rotisserie chickens, and one tip from shopping elsewhere: keep your eyes open for freestanding displays. I did see a decent supply of family bulk toilet paper packs (like 85 rolls?) And this time I found the 1-lb tubs of Kerrygold butter. They did post a limit of one package of fresh meat packages. It's difficult to summarize my total shopping; I usually pick up some fruits and berries, veggies, supplements, nuts, and/or low carb items. So, for example, I found some turkey jerky at half price, Sriracha almonds (cool concept!), and protein pancake/waffle mix.
One odd thing I just noticed online; my regular physician works through a local urgent care facility. (Don't ask why they haven't set up things to reach me through email; usually I'll hear from them via snail mail or cellphone/text.) So all of a sudden I've been seeing Internet ads for online doctor visits through the clinic. (Of course, my health insurance plan has come with a 24 x 7 telemedicine service which I can use (but haven't) for overnight contingencies, e.g., when the clinic is closed.
My BIL's COVID-19 Predictions
I generally don't identify my relatives or friends in my posts, especially without their knowledge and consent. This is a post by one of my brothers-in-law, and I thought it was interesting enough to publish my take on the predictions, which I haven't discussed to date.My “duh” predictions about COVID-19:
1. Millions of people will refuse to be tested, even if tests become unlimited and free.
2. There will be multiple vaccines developed, but none of them more than 60% effective.
3. Millions of people will refuse to take the new vaccine(s). There will be lots of new “anti-vaccine” zealots just like with existing vaccines, except this will be worse because it will be so new.
4. What few side effects there are or rare reports of people getting COVID-19 after taking the vaccine will be widely exaggerated and reported in the media, feeding into #3.
5. There will be lawsuits about whether the government, businesses, schools, event organizers can require people be tested and/or vaccinated.
6. Many lower-paid workers will not return to work for months (already happening) because between State and Federal un-employment ($600/wk), they make more $ sitting at home than they did working and with much less risk.
7. There will be no large public events (sports, concerts, etc.) for the rest of the year.
I need to re-visit these predictions at the end of the year and see how I did.
1. First of all, note there are two types of tests: RNA (do I have it?), antibody (have I had it?). I don't doubt there are serious privacy concerns over how the results could be accessed or used by the government or others. Not to mention there are certain reliability and validity issues of certain tests, with implications of false negatives (i.e., you have it but the test denies it) or positives.
I do think employers have legal and moral obligations to provide and maintain a safe work environment. Employee contracts typically require consent to certain related restrictions, against certain symptoms in the workplace, e.g., Amazon employee temperatures for fever, etc. Since the novel coronavirus can infect and be spread by asymptomatic individuals, other tests may be necessary; the laws are murky but a couple of things seem clear: a testing regimen should be consistently applied, and the employer should not fire an employee for having COVID-19.
This might also be true for densely populated settings like auditoriums, stadiums, subways, etc. Not to mention areas with at risk populations, like large hospitals and nursing homes.
The question of employer liability (e.g., what if the test results are wrong?) is currently an issue up for discussion in the US Senate.
Thus, BIL may be right. Some people may not want to be tested. But it may have impact on other activities. For example, in filing an unemployment claim, you have to certify you were available for work; that might require a test during a pandemic since a COVID-19 infected person cannot work in non-isolated/remote settings.
2. It's not clear how or why BIL came up with the 60% threshold for vaccines not even in production. It depends on the virus, but for example, most childhood vaccines are 90-99% effective. And keep in mind, e.g., even if you get the flu despite a flu shot, your acquired immunity can mitigate the symptoms. Note: some people's immune systems cannot tolerate vaccines. These individuals benefit from herd immunity.
3. New vaccines go through an FDA approval process which includes effectiveness and safety criteria. It typically takes years; even under expedited conditions, it'll take an estimated 12-18 months.
Will the anti-vaxxers agitate against it? Yes. Will there be exacerbated opposition? I doubt it. After nonstop coverage of gruesome fatality statistics daily, most people will jump at the opportunity to protect themselves against an invisible killer.
4. I have no doubt anecdotal cases of COVID vaccine horror stories will get heavy press coverage. You know what's worse? Having the disease, especially if you have a compromised immune system or in an at risk group.
5. Will there be lawsuits? Yes. Will they go anywhere? I doubt it. States have fairly wide discretion to maintain public health, quarantine under state and federal constitutions.
6. Yes, there are moral hazard issues with generous unemployment insurance. FEE has reported incidents like a coffee shop owner whose employees asked to be laid off because they could make more with unemployment, including a federal supplement. This, however, will be constrained by government budgets and as state economies reopen. As I pointed out above, collecting unemployment usually requires documentation of your job search, listing job offers, etc. You risk prosecution for abusing the system. We tapered off unprecedented unemployment benefits during the Great Recession. So I think this is overblown.
It puts Trump into a box of sorts because he sees blue collar workers in his coalition, but as soon as meatpacking issues surfaced, he was quick to threaten employee resistance, including eligibility for unemployment. He does not want to go into the November election with the highest unemployment rate since the 1940's.
7. No, I don't think so. I've seen speculation for empty sports stadiums, say, in Arizona to, say, wrestling venues initially limiting attendees to a quarter capacity. To some extent this will grow as cases and deaths taper down.
