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Saturday, August 26, 2017

If I Were Trump

Well, this essay would be if I simply put my libertarian views into Trump's mouth and actions. Among other things, I would be looking to:

  •  privatize parts of the federal government, including the USPS, FDA and the TSA
  • privatize senior entitlements and service elderly poor in existing poverty programs 
  • consolidate welfare programs  and use the principle of Subsidiarity (i.e., state/local to distribute social welfare net  resources
  • largely privatize most of the federal workforce
  • decentralize federal authority over states
  • downsize our military footprint overseas by 85%
  • pay down the federal debt
  • unilaterally declare free trade and open migration
  • repeal 1913: the Federal Reserve and the income tax
  • reduce regulatory overhead by 85%
  • break up the Department of Homeland Security and eliminate all but a half dozen federal departments
Okay, I know that's never going to happen, and I will have the AnCaps on my right saying I'm still leaving too much on the table for the Statists. That's really not the point  I'm looking for a paradigm shift in American politics. If we don't start conceptualizing goals and specifics in terms of how to regain lost liberty, we're screwed playing defense against corrupt Statists who have built their unsustainable government by bribing the electorate. We need to fight the beneficiaries, the bureaucrats and the special interests who benefit from such corruption. I don't see that happening but under extraordinary circumstances like an economic meltdown.

So then: what I'm referring to?

  • Trump should have exited Afghanistan and Iraq, declared victory, calling an end to the Bush/Clinton era
  • Trump won the Presidency with one of the lowest non-leading percentages since Harrison and John Quincy Adams and in a change election year. He should have shown more humility and not expected some sort of mandate for a largely unspecified agenda.
  • Trump's mishandling of Charlottesville was an unforced error, one that largely dogged him during the primary fight over David Duke. Trump is stubborn to the point of being counterproductive, fighting tooth and nail before (in the past) conceding the Obama birther issue (and in some bizarre way trying to claim credit for resolving it). There was no reason in the world why Trump shouldn't have said something like, "Look, what these radical groups on the left and the right teach do not reflect my values or those of my administration. I won the election largely based on Republican and independent votes, not on the votes of fringe groups, which I don't seek and repudiate unconditionally. I don't seek the votes of fringe groups who oppose equality under the law and won't abide by the rule of law. As President, I support the right of people to express their thoughts, even disagreeable ones, under our Constitution. As for Confederate statues and flags, let me point out that Gov. Nikki Haley, who took down Confederate flags in SC is part of my administration.
  • Trump needs to exercise more self-discipline. His threats against GOP Congressional leaders, Senators, Comey, Mueller, North Korea, and more (not to mention his infamous tweets) have badly backfired. He's roiled international stock markets with rogue comments
  • On healthcare, Trump needs to focus on how to restore competition in the health care sector and this means radically removing barriers to entry within and across states, lower financially ruinous mandates (like community rating, business and individual).
  • Trump needs to not sweat the small stuff.  He needs to cut his losses faster. He needs to stop this insane policy of threatening his own GOP allies; Dick Morris recalls that when FDR went after allegedly disloyal senators following the failure of his court packing scheme, he miserably failed, and his domestic initiatives were largely stymied for the remainder of his Presidency.
  • Trump needs to negotiate with Congress, not attempt to impose his will. He needs to build a record of win-win successes to build momentum for bigger policies.
  • I do not know exactly how to reverse his slumping 34-35% public approval rating. He thinks any publicity is better than no publicity, and he's wrong. I know his faithful love him calling out the mainstream media and take shots at the Establishment. But I don't think he's helping himself with the voters on the margin. They need to feel better off after 16 years of mediocre economic growth under Bush and Obama.
Can Trump survive the mid-terms and get reelected? Just a reminder that an unpopular IL Gov. Blagojevich managed to win reelection in 2006 by making his opponent radioactive. A lot depends on who the Democrats nominate, the state of the economy, etc. But I am surprised that despite his expertise with the media that he hasn't been able to maintain his job approval ratings.

On paper, Trump's abysmal ratings should  lay the prospect of a 2006 wave election. But it's possible if not likely that the GOP will pick up Senate seats since most seats up involve Democrat incumbents, many in red-leaning states, and the latest I've seen, the GOP seems to be favored in about 230 House seats, enough to remain in control. But a lot can happen over the coming year.

But even if Trump turns out to be a one-term President, his Presidency is likely to be consequential for at least 2 positive reasons:
  • Trump is likely to mitigate the damage caused by Obama's court appointments over the last 8 years
  • Trump is the first POTUS to seriously tackle the GDP-choking costs of over-regulation.