I just wanted to jot down some notes about the Presidential race. There are 2 websites I regularly track: the latest polls from RealClearPolitics and electionbettingodds. Remember, the election is decided by states, all but a few (e.g., Nebraska and Maine) winner-take-all (the latter I believe allow for a district-level elector, so it's possible that Trump picks up one of the districts but loses the state overall). One of the points I'm trying to make here is that even if Trump is polling closer to Clinton head-to-head nationally than I thought possible 3 months back, it depends where those new supporters are coming from; if all he is doing is piling up votes in traditional red states (which I expect is probable), that really doesn't help him from an electoral standpoint. Clinton starts with a firm core blue base of 152 of the 270 [270=1+(100 S+435 HR+3 DC)/2] needed (including states like CA, NY, IL, and MA). Trump starts with 87. They then roughly split 200 likely electoral votes (e.g., Washington state for Dems, Texas for GOP). The rest are the so-called battleground states, currently about 95 electoral votes. The bottom line is that that Clinton only needs about 10 of those swing votes and she is narrowly leading in about 2/3rd of the swing state vote. Trump needs about 87 votes on top of his likely wins, which means he needs to take away states where Clinton leads narrowly or more solidly (like high single or double-digits). Trump really needs to run the table on Election Day (Nov. 8); given the lack of success enjoyed by Trump casinos, that's not a winning bet.
Still, the LA Times ironically has seen Trump with a small but persistent lead, unlike almost every other pollster; even Rasmussen has seen a narrow lead switch back and forth between Clinton and Trump. Could there be a social desirability component, e.g., secret Trump supporters unwilling to reveal themselves to pollsters? In theory, yes; likely, no. I think given Trump's enormous unfavorable ratings, it is remarkable that he is polling as close as he is. But just as Truman prevailed in 1948 and the polls in Britain failed to anticipate Brexit results, it's possible. And I can't rule out some last month event which blows up in Clinton's face. But right now Obama is running nearly 20 points higher in approval than Bush did in 2008, and Trump really hasn't tapped into anti-Obama sentiment in a change year election.
I've still not watched last week's debate, which happened during my work shift. So I'll reserve detailed comments for a future one-off post. But some notes here: generally speaking, commenters, unlike for the first Romney-Obama debate, tended to believe Clinton won. And Clinton certainly is campaigning like she won the debate. Conservative commenters generally griped that Trump missed opportunities to attack on Hillary's scandals. (He did mention Emailgate but really didn't press the attack.)
And as much as I and other hammered him during the GOP debate for bringing up his feud with comedienne/actress Rosie O'Donnell, I can't believe that he did so in a Presidential debate. What the hell is wrong with him? This bullshit might play well with his base but it doesn't play well with swing voters, who might view his obsession as a character flaw.
I've seen the Clinton commercials, including those on Trump's alleged misogyny. This is not the kind of campaign I would run holding her cards. Her policy prescriptions (e.g., forcing the wealthy to pay "their fair share") is just a tired refrain and not an answer to weak economic growth during the Obama tenure. She should be marketing a policy-oriented, positive campaign to establish a post-election consensus mandate. What I've seen to date mostly reflects a partisan perspective. Even if she wins, she's likely to inherit a GOP-controlled House and, at minimum, a filibustering GOP minority. I have seen nothing that plays to a broader agenda. She is missing her share of opportunities this campaign.
I am now officially registered in the Libertarian Party in Arizona. (I may have mentioned that in a past post, but I ended up getting a written confirmation along with my new driver license. In most states I've lived, you get your license while at the facility, but for some reason Arizona mails you the license a few days afterwards.) I will vote for Johnson, given current trends. I'm not crazy about some of Johnson's positions, e.g., pro-State on business policies (e.g., businesses having to bake Nazi cakes) as well as abortion (I'm pro-life), but Johnson is the only reasonable one on trade, immigration, and the economy
