Quote of the Day
Discovery consists of looking at the same thing as everyone else and thinking something different.
Albert Szent-Gyorgyi
Harmon Killebrew, My Childhood Hero, Dies
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Courtesy of Malcolm Emmons/US Presswire |
I wrote my lead commentary on Harmon Killebrew, the best baseball player of all time, this past Saturday. He succumbed to cancer today, and my heart is broken.
No individual has ever meant more to the Minnesota Twins organization and millions of fans across Twins territory than Harmon Killebrew and will be the class, dignity and humility he demonstrated each and every day as a Hall of Fame-quality husband, father, friend, teammate and man. - Dave St. Peter, Twins' President
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1965 All-Star Game Home Run Courtesy of John Croft |
I'm not aware of a decent tribute song for the passing of heroes, but one of the first DVD's I ever purchased was of a TV movie "Brian's Song", star Chicago Bear running back Gale Sayer's account of his friend Brian Piccolo, a fellow running back whom died of terminal cancer. The following songs include one of my favorite later Styx songs, a tribute to a former band drummer and my favorite Josh Groban song. Three songs for #3. Clearly a few of the verses don't fit the context of a fan whom never personally met his baseball idol, but I want Harmon Killebrew's widow Nita and surviving children to know Harmon will always be in our thoughts and prayers, every time the millions of us watch a baseball game, and we are genuinely sorry for your loss. (I'm going to find a way to mention #3 in my blog every day for the remainder of this baseball season.)
Durbin, Oil, and Political Spin
Dick Durbin (D-IL) on Fox News Sunday went into a rote memory political spin mode to justify stonewalling oil and gas exploration: we only account for a small single-digit percentage of "proven" reserves, we can't drill our way out of this, etc. This predictable talking point has always been very fuzzy to me: a relative number doesn't convey a lot of meaning of and by itself: you need to know how that relates to demand. Moreover, it's not clear what point is being made: are they attempting to suggest we shouldn't expand exploration because we need to save our remaining reserves for a rainy day? With a huge trade imbalance, tightening global capacity and large drop in the purchasing power of the dollar? With high unemployment and any expansion of domestic production providing good, well-paying American jobs, not to mention less reliance on unstable suppliers, some with anti-American agendas?
But let me make some relevant observations from Bill Kovarik. "Proven reserves" are based on industry reports to the Department of Energy; I'm not suggesting that any figures are misstated but clearly the appearance of inadequate supply has pricing implications. The USGS generates different numbers--which differ considerably from the Department of Energy. Kovarik points out the proven reserves number, comparable to the USGS identifiable reserves, doesn't include recoverable or unconventional sources. So, for example, we see one estimate of 56 billion barrels in North American proven reserves. USGS estimates roughly twice the amount in identifiable reserves (112 billion) and nearly 400 billion in recoverable reserves. And if we look at unconventional sources, the Venezuelan Orinoco heavy oil belt has 1 to 4 trillion barrels. Why doesn't DoE use USGS estimates? Exactly...
We use somewhat less than 20 million barrels per day. Kovarik quotes Saudi Aramco CEO Abdallah Jam'ah in a 2006 speech noting at the time we had used less than 1 of 5 barrels of recoverable oil and the 4.5T barrels of recoverable oil could last another 140 years at current utilization. And that doesn't even include things that can address some of almost half of that utilization rate (fuel) like technological improvements in engines (including electric/hybrid) and battery storage, liquid or compressed natural gas, flex-fuel and/or alternative fuels/extenders (ethanol, algae-based, etc.)
Note to the Wicked Witch of the West Coast:
(Nancy Pelosi, House Minority Leader)
Entitlement Reserves Are Melting, Melting...
On Friday the 13th, we faced a foe far more fearsome than Jason Voorhees: the recognition of the inevitable, more rapidly approaching day of reckoning of irresponsible, unsustainable progressive promises: Medicare's funding ends in 2024 (5 years closer than expected last year) and social security comes in one year closer at 2036. Payroll taxes (employee and employer match) only match part of the outflows for current entitlement beneficiaries. In essence, the government not only has to pay over $1.6T to cover the new record Obama Deficit, aka the Obama Tsunami of Debt, but it has to sell past IOU's covering Democratic superspending (e.g., "investing" in 6-figure compensation packages for government employees), to provides funds to current beneficiaries. To all those current workers paying payroll taxes--you seriously thought the government was "investing" to fund your retirement?
Political Potpourri
Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI) announced, as I predicted Sunday, that he will not run for the open seat currently held by retiring Herb Kohl.
The President has a slight bounce from the correction of the UBL spike, with Gallup up 2 points to 48% and improvement in net approval to 5 points, and Rasmussen putting him up to 50% and a net approval of 1 point. Rasmussen actually has the generic GOP candidate by 2 over Obama.
Fukushima Nuclear Incident Update
Atomic Power Review notes:
- Tuesday update: There is a current mystery as to why the reactor 1 isolation condenser cooling system was shut down manually after being actuated during the earthquake. Second, TEPCO is pumping borated water ("liquid control rod"), which is normally done when you are trying to control for fission products, usually at the beginning of a nuclear incident crisis, not over two months into a stabilized context.
NEI notes:
- Tuesday note: In discussing a recent TEPCO video, the blog points out initial preparations to put a lid over the reactor 1 roof demolished by the hydrogen blast early in the crisis.
Political Humor
"Iran’s intelligence minister claims to have proof that Osama bin Laden was dead before the Navy SEALs found him. Does anyone believe Iran has an intelligence minister? That’s like Pakistan having a truth minister." - Jay Leno
[Iran's intelligence minister also asserts that they have proof that the Americans didn't capture the real Saddam Hussein but a lookalike Iran left behind in finding and capturing Saddam Hussein first. He claimed that Iran had obtained a lot of useful intelligence about Hussein's WMD program by exposing Hussein to hours of American rap/hip hop music, which he insists is not a violation of the Geneva Convention. They then found and destroyed the WMD's to undermine America's credibility with the world.]
[The Pakistan truth minister said that Americans didn't understand that the Pakistan government had arrested and convicted UBL 5 years ago and were holding him in a minimum security prison surrounded by the Pakistani military; the Americans should have realized it was a prison by the high walls and barbed wire surrounding the facility. Pakistan denied UBL's attempts to communicate with the outside world by denying telecommunications access to the facility and burning the trash.]
"In Iran 25 of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's associates have been arrested and charged with being magicians and being able to summon genies. So if you’re keeping score at home, it’s believe in genies 1, believe in Holocaust 0." –Jimmy Kimmel
[Mahmoud Ahmadinejad should never have lent Ayatollah Ali Khamenei his iPod: the ayatollah doesn't understand songs like the Lovin' Spoonful's "Do You Believe in Magic?" and Christina Aguilera's "Genie in a Bottle".]
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
Chicago, "I'm a Man"
