Analytics

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Miscellany: 5/03/11

Quote of the Day

Life is an opportunity, benefit from it.
Life is beauty, admire it.
Life is bliss, taste it.
Life is a dream, realize it.
Life is a challenge, meet it.
Life is a duty, complete it.
Life is a game, play it.
Life is a promise, fulfill it.
Life is sorrow, overcome it.
Life is a song, sing it.
Life is a struggle, accept it.
Life is a tragedy, confront it.
Life is an adventure, dare it.
Life is luck, make it.
Life is too precious, do not destroy it.
Life is life, fight for it.
Mother Teresa

Courtesy of Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press
Kudos to Minnesota's Francisco Liriano: 
Majors' First 2011 No Hitter!

In an earlier post, I explained how I became a Minnesota Twins fan in an unlikely manner (in fact, I never stepped foot in Minnesota until I went to the Twin Cities for an international conference in my MIS discipline while on faculty at UWM). It was the first no-hitter of the major league season (Liriano issued 6 walks, hence not a perfect game facing a minimum number of batters); the southpaw (yes!) came into the game with a bloated 9.13 ERA without a complete game in 94 previous starts.

Congratulations to Prime Minister Stephen Harper:
Canadian Conservatives Win Decisive Election

The Conservatives added 24 seats to their plurality, winning 167 of 308 House of Commons seats in the Canadian bicameral Parliament to win an outright majority. The New Democrats more than doubled their seats to 102, displacing the Liberals as the official opposition and separatist Bloc Québécois dropped to 4 seats, their worst showing since 1993, inclusive. The Canadian Conservatives espouse a number of positions similar to US Republicans/conservatives, including decentralized authority/taxation to the provinces, free markets, smaller government, tax cuts and more socially conservative policies on abortion and traditional marriage. Interestingly, in 2005 the newly merged party seemed to anticipate Mitch Daniels' (R-IN) so-called truce on social conservative issues to appeal more to moderates and independents.

Perry's Markup on Obama's Attack on Oil & Gas Farm Subsidies: 
Thumbs UP!

I've made my position clear: government subsidies distort the free markets and serve as little more than delaying the day of reckoning for inefficient domestic producers and unduly raising costs for consumers or restaurants and packaged, processed or frozen foods.  I've repeated a couple of obvious examples: corn ethanol and domestic sugar. The use of corn for fuel is driving up the cost for individual consumers, animal feed, etc.

Enough Already of the Debate on Enhanced Interrogation Techniques!

I have never really bought into what I regard as a fake issue on waterboarding or "torture" of 3 high-value Al Qaeda detainees. I generally don't think it's a wise thing to reveal one's hand; KSM clearly thought he would lawyer up in America and let his lawyer do his talking, without yielding a single item of usable intelligence. At the same time, clearly once KSM and other high-value targets were taken, the time value of information was very limited, since bin Laden would make adjustments that KSM and others didn't know. Congressman King (R-NY) argues that certain information about the courier (e.g., an alias) had been obtained by enhanced interrogation techniques. (Apparently it was a tracked 2010 phone call from the courier in question that led the CIA to the mansion where bin Laden was killed in last weekend's successful operation.)

I want to reiterate that there are risks in any rescue or  surgical strike attempt, and Obama could have found himself with a Carter-like failure (i.e., to liberate the diplomatic hostages from Iran near the end of his Presidency). No doubt the accumulated Al Qaeda database under the Bush Administration, including interrogations in other countries and/or at Gitmo, played a role in the discovery of bin Laden's hiding place. But we did not have sufficient information to locate bin Laden by the end of the Bush Administration, and it's unknowable whether certain salient facts would have emerged in time with more acceptable interrogation procedures.

Political Potpourri

Pollsters are looking for a post-Bin Laden approval bounce for Obama; I am a skeptic that there will be much of a bounce because I think most Americans are decided about Obama and his policies. It is always a good idea to flesh out one's objectives, but I felt that Osama bin Laden was more of a symbolic target: like Saddam Hussein, he was in hiding and any communication with him was intrinsically risky. It is true, of course, the fact that, just like Hussein, we eventually found the target and justice prevailed, has important deterrence value. But I always think there is danger when one hypes any one terrorist/event  because of unrealistic expectations. I worry that there is a strong motive for radicals to reassert their relevance. Now, of course, radicals could find that any act could result in a strong bipartisan reaction and consolidation of support behind the Commander in Chief; the danger for President Obama is if a deadly act is perceived as having been preventable.

One poll, the Washington Post/Pew poll released today, shows Obama with a 56% approval rating, which would imply a 10-point bounce and net approval of 18 points. I think, quite frankly, that is a departure from reality. The latest rolling 3-day poll for Gallup shows a 47% approval, which indicates roughly a 3-point swing (we should know better by week end, although some argue that we will continue to see an upward drift for several days); Newsweek has a 48% and Rasmussen has a 49% approval, both with a net  disapproval of 1 point, according to RCP. My personal assessment is that Obama who won with 53% of the vote has not picked up support from McCain supporters, and Obama has lost significant support among moderates and independents whom put Obama over the top; that's why I predicted Obama might top off at 51%, before reality brings his euphoric ratings back down to earth.

There has been one updated GOP Presidential poll since my last political segment: Fox News last Friday. It showed Romney leading Huckabee 19-17, with a tight race for third among Palin, Trump, Paul, and Gingrich, each in the high single digits. Trump says that pollsters are telling him that his support is understated because he hasn't officially declared and once he does declare, his ratings will skyrocket. I think the Donald is deluding himself. He has been getting enormous publicity--but some of the publicity, including his widely reported use of profanity, will not play well with the base. Yes, he will probably have a modest honeymoon with an official announcement, and his money instantly gives him credibility as a serious candidate. But Romney had a huge money advantage over McCain in 2008. Trump has a number of problems, including high personal negatives, poor head-to-head polls with Obama, lack of expertise in military and foreign policy, and no public sector experience, and one can expect other candidates to accuse him of trying to buy the Presidency and attack his flip-flops on major issues (including taxes and health care).

Fukushima Nuclear Incident Update

IAEA notes:
  • daily: Most of the changes to the update page reflected updates to things like radiation tests (various levels remain stable/decreasing), reactor temperature/pressure (modest temperature pickup when coolant flow is reduced), and ongoing dewatering activities (no new food/drink tests, other than continued resumption of various farm produce shipments from various levels). The effort to dam the reactor 2 trench started on Sunday, and dewatering of the reactor 6 turbine basement resumed yesterday.
Political Humor

"The news of bin Laden’s death interrupted this week’s episode of “Celebrity Apprentice.” Which begs the question, how do we kill bin Laden again next Sunday?" - Conan O'Brien

[I have to admit I'm intrigued by the season-ending cliffhanger: "Who Shot Osama?"]

"Did everyone enjoy the Osama bin Laden season series' finale?" - David Letterman

[The longest-running "Survivor" series ended with Osama bin Laden's elimination. America prevailed in the finale.]

"President Obama must be very happy because he finally took down his arch enemy: Donald Trump. The Bin Laden announcement interrupted “Celebrity Apprentice.”" - Craig Ferguson

[And you would have thought, as a native New Yorker, Donald Trump had enough reasons to hate Osama bin Laden...]

Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

ABBA, "The Winner Takes It All" (live). I'm on Agnetha's side. I can't imagine how painful it must have been to sing this song next to her ex-husband.


Il Divo, "The Winner Takes It All (Va Todo Al Ganado)"