Quote of the Day
Our new Constitution is now established, and has an appearance that promises permanency; but in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.
Benjamin Franklin
Political Potpourri
Rasmussen shows Obama for the first time in several months at 50% approval (net +1), and Gallup tightened slightly to my prediction of 51% (net +10). [I think Obama may tread at this level for a few more days, but the increase of unemployment to 9% and a flat labor participation rate (i.e., "real employment") is particularly troubling, and I see a drift back below 50 within a week or two.] CNN shows Huckabee 16, Trump 14, Romney 13 and shows Romney falling to an 11-point deficit with Obama, Huckabee at 8, and (surprisingly) Ron Paul at 7, doing the best. Palin and Trump, as usual, lose to Obama by over 20 points each.
Hiring Up, But Unemployment Back to 9%
We saw a net increase of 244,000 (268,000 private sector, -24,000 local/state), but the unemployment rate rose from 8.8% to 9%. This sounds counterintuitive, but the labor participation rate remained flat for the fourth consecutive month: just as spending cuts can offset the need for new tax revenue, cuts in layoffs offset the need for new hiring. The Chicago Fed found that improving job statistics are due more to the former than to the latter. This can, in part, reflect fear by someone deciding to stay in his position, because of a difficult labor market; another troubling sign is the number of temporary positions decreased for the second time in four months; temporary positions are a precursor of full-time positions as employers become more confident in an economic expansion.
How does unemployment rise? Temporary positions (e.g., a limited-term information technology project) may end, and it takes time to find a new job. (I myself have been in that situation.) A housewife who hasn't been employed (e.g., caring for young children) attempts to return to the labor force to help meet the household bills. A discouraged (long-term unemployed) worker sees improved hiring in his field and restarts his job search.
On a more positive note, the number of total government workers (almost all at the local and state level) has fallen to the lowest number in 3.5 years, a decrease of 500,000 to 22.16M over the last 2 years (unlike the federal government, the state and local governments must balance their budgets).
The South Carolina GOP Presidential Debate
I watched the reruns on Fox News, and here are my takeaways:
- I think this was a clear opportunity for Tim Pawlenty to break away from the second tier pack without one of the A-list candidates (Romney, Huckabee, Gingrich, Trump, Palin) to distract attention. I don't think he succeeded; the moderators gave him an opportunity to compare and contrast his health care approach to Romney's, and I think he was more concerned with not wanting to violate Reagan's 11th commandment. He should have been more aggressive but respectful; he should not have let Herman Cain preempt the Washington outsider role, and he should have stressed his electability from a key purple Midwestern state and his ability to stonewall a tax-and-spend legislature. I also would stay away from predictable applause lines.
- Gary Johnson, the former New Mexico two-term governor, really impressed me, because I see him as a more appealing alternative to Ron Paul as a fellow libertarian-conservative with executive expeience; he was spot on in defending the free market when he was asked about Trump's tariff threat against the Chinese, and he reflected my desire to get out of Afghanistan and get away from the nation building mode of the last two decades. I understand, but do not fully subscribe to, his position on drugs (and I share some concerns about compliance costs and the need for decriminalization reform), but I don't think it was the proper forum to have a takeaway over the legalization, say, of heroin. In probably the oddest moment of the night, one of the Fox moderators asked him since Trump has a reality show Celebrity Apprentice, what would his reality show be? Johnson seemed completely baffled at this curve ball, eventually noting he had a goal of climbing a high mountain on each continent. [I would have suggested a game of Executive Jeopardy: Teams of Obama Administration agency appointees would compete in answering questions on "Starting a Business", "Cutting Government Waste", "The US Constitution", "Classical Economics", and "Traditional American Values". The final Jeopardy task might be something like: "write a bill in 25 words or less", "find the Kelo decision in the Constitution", or "if because of budget constraints you had to eliminate 4 departments in the Cabinet, other than Defense, which would you choose and why? (You are allowed to choose your own.)"]
- Herman Cain won the Frank Luntz "who won the debate" focus group; I think in part some of the people were angry with Romney (and others) not showing up. When questioned about his lack of government experience, Cain went for the cheap applause for making the predictable observation that he couldn't do worse than the existing politicians responsible for the current mess in government. I do give him credit for being the only person on stage not wanting to release the bin Laden photo. I thought the rationale for his candidacy was rather weak; when pointed out that Romney had his support in 2008, Cain said effectively, Romney had his chance and he blew it; it's my turn now. I want to hear more than conventional policy talking points and 'I ran a restaurant business' (public sector administration involves different types of decisions); I want to see evidence he can attract moderate and independent voters and the ability to make tough decisions to address the nation's problems.
- Rick Santorum (R-PA) tried the best case he could about beating favored incumbent Democrats in earlier elections, but the fact is he got blown out in Pennsylvania in the 2006 elections by 17 points by a less than inspirational candidate in Bob Casey, a state treasurer and son of a previous governor, and he doesn't have a prayer against Obama. His defense of the unfunded expansion of the Medicare prescription drug expansion was poor; he can argue all he wants about coming in under budget, but Medicare already had an unfunded liability problem before extending benefits.
Guest IDB Editorial: "Raw Milk": Thumbs UP!
Some readers know that I may have a second blog on nutrition, which I have not published for several months. I think that today's post stands on its own merits and I won't repeat it here; I encourage the interested reader to read the whole post, but let me quote the takeaway:
My personal opinion? The editorial is spot on. Instead of the federal government pushing on a string to prevent giving consumers a healthier alternative to Big Milk, they should stick to their core competencies of regulating Big Agriculture instead of targeting the industrious small business Amish farmer, whom drinks his own milk and knows his sales are dependent on maintaining the quality of his product.
Deathers Dealt Blow: Al Qaeda Confirms Bin Laden's Death
It does not surprise me that there was a delayed reaction from Al Qaeda given the necessarily limited access to Osama bin Laden (I'm sure the CIA would love to have had them call the late courier's phone number. They probably would have had their best Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti impersonator on the line assuring them the bin Laden death is an American trick to fool them...) The SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors Islamic radical website, notes a confirmation of bin Laden's death and vows revenge, including against Pakistani snitches.
Did Hell Freeze Over? Glenn Beck And I In Agreement...
Glenn Beck isn't comfortable with the (jingoist) "USA! USA!" celebration of bin Laden's demise, didn't like Obama's subsequent self-congratulatory "victory lap" visit to New York, and opposed the release of the bin Laden's death photos in tonight's O'Reilly Factor. (I have published relevant opinions in earlier posts this week.)
Fukushima Nuclear Incident Update
Atomic Power Review:
NEI notes:
Atomic Power Review:
- Thursday evening: TEPCO responded to NISA's concern about the safety concerns of adding water to primary containment in vessel 1, insisting it's structurally sound.
NEI notes:
- weekly update: Workers went into the reactor 1 building for the first time since March 11 to install an air filtration system (as discussed in early updates, a precursor for installation of external reactor cooling systems tentatively Sunday). TEPCO is sending in new workers to replace those whom are approaching maximum aggregate exposure levels by safety standards. Overall ambient radiation levels at the site continue to slowly decline.
The Hiroshima Syndrome blogger published the last of this week's three posts, noting all sea locations are reporting within safety limits. Workers have started filling the primary containment to reactor 1 with water, which should further attenuate radiation from the reactor pressurized vessel. He notes additional nuclear plant shutdowns per order of the Prime Minister Nan, which appears to be a bone to assuage the anti-nukes, and more Chernobyl cancer scaremongering.
Political Humor
Bin Laden was buried at sea. Or as Dick Cheney calls it, “the ultimate waterboarding.” - Jay Leno
[Obama was in the horns of a dilemma: what to do with bin Laden's body. He was caught between the devil and the deep blue sea..."Wait a second: what did I just say?"]
"They say bin Laden lived in his compound with nine women and 23 children. I’m surprised the guy didn’t shoot himself in the head." - Jay Leno
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
ABBA, "Bang-A-Boomerang"
