Analytics

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Miscellany: 5/10/11

Quote of the Day

You can't build a reputation on what you are going to do.
Henry Ford

South Sudan: Independence Date  7/9/11

Manute Bol, at 7'7" the tallest player in NBA history, died at 47 last year from complications of a kidney medication. Probably his best performance was a double-overtime game in college playing for Div2 Bridgeport in which he had 32 points, 29 rebounds, and 31 blocked shots. Any knowledgeable basketball fan knows this is a triple-double (digits), and usually the third stat is assists, not blocks. (I guess he game one rebound from a triple triple-double.) Blocks are a compelling statistic of center dominance, and I believe the NBA record is 17.
Courtesy of savedarfur.org
Manute Bol was a native of southern Sudan. Most people are more familiar with the genocide in Darfur. There are some religious differences involved in the decades-long struggle in Africa's largest country, with Christian and traditional African religions in the south rebelling against the majority Muslims dominating the northern section of the country. [The dispute in Darfur has to do with some historical economic tensions between the black Arab nomadic livestock herdsmen and black (non-Arab descent) African sedentary farmers, both groups which are predominantly Muslim. The Janjaweed, a militia largely consisting of the former, are thought be be favored and supplied by Sudanese government. Motivated by factors like droughts, the Jangaweed have pushed their way into Darfur, opposed by three rebel groups.]

As I mentioned in my February 7 post, South Sudanese voted earlier this year for independence, and President Obama will recognize the new nation two months from now. I want to point out most South Sudanese are desperately poor (less than $1 income per day). Manute Bol had a vision for a better future for the poor in his homeland, through schools open to all children, without regard to religious or tribal background. Sudan Sunrise is a charitable organization with several relevant projects; I encourage readers to visit this website or relevant charity of your choice and consider giving if you have the resources.


Political Potpourri

According to RCP, Obama's approval goes up slightly in Gallup (52, +1) and dips slightly in Rasmussen (50, -1). What is more interesting is Rasmussen finds Obama leads a generic GOP candidate 45-43. This is a clear indication that the good news on bin Laden's demise has only a temporary impact. There's only so far that news will carry him when you have 9% unemployment and $4/gallon gasoline, an exploding national debt, and a highly unpopular health care law. More importantly, when 12% of the vote is undecided and the incumbent is under 50%, the incumbent is in trouble, because the challenger will have the change factor going for him or her.

One interesting poll is the latest PPP poll which a few weeks ago showed a newly rumored Donald Trump candidacy swamping the GOP field with about 25% of the vote. The most recent poll shows Trump down to single digits while Huckabee maintains a 1-point lead over Romney, with Gingrich, expected to announce tomorrow during Hannity's prime-time FNC show, surging into third place a few points behind. Romney is expected to make a major address on healthcare tomorrow, but FNC analysts almost invariably stop discussions of Romney with a characterization of RomneyCare as ObamaCare Lite. I'll be interested in seeing what he says differently than he has said on the issue over the past year. He needs to say more than Massachusetts was doing state experimentation and there's a difference, because of the higher participation of Massachusetts citizens in insurance from the get-go which made the financial burden less onerous, from a nationwide solution. Romney's biggest issue is getting past the individual mandate in Massachusetts.

Stealing John Stossel's Tagline:
Obama Decisive, Strong Leader?
GIVE ME A BREAK!

Only 7 weeks ago a Reuters/Ipsos poll, around the time of the decision to participate in Libyan bombing after weeks of slow-moving diplomacy, showed that only 17% perceived Obama as "strong and decisive", 48% "cautious and consultative", and 36% as "indecisive and dithering" (Thumbs UP!), NBC/WSJ released a poll yesterday (contrasting December ratings): strong in crisis management 53% (44%), firm and decisive 53% (41%), and good commander-in-chief  51% (41%).

There is NO WAY this is based on the evidence of Obama's actions. These ratings are clearly in the context of the SUCCESSFUL outcome of ONE decision (the Abbottabad SEALs mission to capture or kill UBL). Where does any rational person see this President as firm and decisive? The dithering of his Afghanistan surge decision over literally months, which involved splitting the difference in lowest staffing levels McChrystal recommended, identifying those as have the HIGHEST RISK of failure, while at the same time announcing withdrawals before a single boot hit the ground? His decision to keep Gitmo open, contrary to his campaign promise? The recent administrative decision to go from having a show trial of KSM in NYC to a military tribunal? His vacillation over the Egypt uprising? His muted response to the Syrian and Iranian uprisings (i.e., the Green Revolution)? His delayed response to the Libyan crisis that went from Qaddafi on the ropes to his mercenary forces surrounding the last rebel stronghold and promising vengeance? 

What about the fact that the President waited until after the mid-term elections to make a deal on extending the Bush tax cuts, literally within a month of their expiration? What about the fact that he has not shored up entitlement programs, despite having his strongest hand in the Congress in decades? What about his reappointment of Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Fed Reserve chief Ben Bernanke and his repeated appointments of Gen. Petraeus, all clearly identifiable with the Bush Administration? What about the fact that he made several appointments on his economics staff from key principals in the Clinton Administration?

The only time I've seen President Obama make a quick, decisive decision was after a Gen. McChrystal interview with Rolling Stone, where subordinates were disrespectful of civilian leadership, throwing Gen. McChrystal under the bus... 

Let's keep in mind that the Abbottabad mission had been rehearsed multiple times, that the CIA had located UBL's suspected courier in Pakistan in 2009. There are reports of a secret understanding between Bush and Musharraf (naturally denied by Musharraf recently) regarding the rights for US to go after UBL unilaterally which Pakistan would tacitly allow, while publicly denouncing any such raid. The CIA had agents surrounding the compound.

Now I supported Obama's decision, but he really had no alternative. There's not a serious Presidential candidate whom wouldn't have made the same decision. But the risk of, say, UBL being told by a double agent that the CIA knew he was in the compound could have resulted in Obama being known as the President whom lost bin Laden, which would have been the end of his political career.

Fukushima Nuclear Incident Update

Atomic Power Review notes:
  • Tuesday update: It looks like the lead sheeting of the high rad area in the reactor 1 facility hasn't reduced the level as much as hoped, which may lower the time workers spend in the facility. The rising temperatures in reactor 3 reflect an earlier change in coolant flow to the reactor pressurized vessel, and TEPCO is looking to revert the change. Some videos are showing so much debris in the spent fuel pools (e.g., #3) that it's almost impossible to see stored fuel arrays.

Political Humor

"The unemployment rate went up last month for the first time since November. But on the bright side, I hear a senior management position just opened up at al-Qaida." - Jimmy Fallon

[But it doesn't come with life insurance, and you are subject to termination without notice.]

"President Obama said that watching the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound was the longest 40 minutes of his life, except for every time he asks Joe Biden what’s up." - Conan O'Brien

[It wasn't so much watching the video, but listening to Joe Biden do the play-by-play and ask for the instant replay...]

Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

Chicago, "Question 67 & 68". A personal favorite and the very first hit single for Chicago with a distinctive arrangement and great brass. The song originally hit #71 and an edited version hit #24 a couple of years later. A great Robert Lamm song with brilliant vocals by Cetera (speaking as a fellow tenor).