Miscellany: 5/31/11

Quote of the Day 

Follow the path of the unsafe, independent thinker. 
Expose your ideas to the dangers of controversy. 
Speak your mind and fear less the label of 'crackpot' than the stigma of conformity.
And on issues that seem important to you, stand up and be counted at any cost.

Thomas J. Watson

Readership Climbs To 4-Month High

My readership peaked last October (roughly twice May's level), but the May readership was a strong improvement over the prior 3 months. I would have preferred bigger numbers at the end of the month, because I think the material was strong.

It's like being a songwriter; sometimes the audience surprises the writer. There's a tendency in writers to want to recapture what worked; for example, Porter Wagoner and Dolly Parton had their biggest unlikely hit with "Jeannie's Afraid of the Dark", a sentimental story song about a prescient little daughter whom seemed to realize her life on this earth would be short. They reportedly attempted to repeat their success with story songs on subsequent albums but to no avail. My strongest numbers of the month were surprisingly on a weekend after I wrote an unlikely critique on American Idol.

In the international readership race, my Danish readers regained the top spot with a strong second by Slovenia.

Debt Ceiling Increase Voted Down 318-97: Thumbs DOWN!

First of all, nobody needs to lecture me on government spending, the federal deficit, and the national debt. I've been consistently pushing for real budget cuts across the board--including nothing: domestic programs, defense, and entitlements. I advocate pension reforms, including military retirees (deferred until retirement, capped at a certain level). I want across-the-board agency layoffs, over-budget projects put on hold, freezes on annual and tenure-based compensation increases and givebacks for total compensation (salary and benefits) into the six-figures. I desire consolidation of federal offices, elimination of inter-agency duplication, sunsetting of regulations and merging of regulatory authorities. I would like to see a reduction in internationally deployed personnel and infrastructure. I want to see current giveaways remade into subsidies, subsidies slashed across the board, divestment of industry stocks, reform of mineral right giveaways, more privatization of natural resources...

Yes, I know my political half-life would probably be all of 2 seconds. This is all about political posturing for the next election: the GOP wants it on the record they got the best spending cuts they could under the circumstances. Not raising the debt limit is irresponsible. There was a reason they didn't have this vote during the business day because they knew the markets wouldn't respond well to the news.

It's time to do something constructive and to act like grownups, and I'm referring to both sides. I haven't heard a single credible cut Obama would make--just some basic things (like cutting oil and gas subsidies) that amount to little more than a rounding error. But to the GOP: spooking the markets is not responsible.

I am not for increasing debt, but sooner or later, you'll have to raise the ceiling, and it's better it happens sooner than later. You have to play with the hand you're given--and you've got drunken-sailor spenders in the Senate and White House.

Guest Editorial: Tim Pawlenty/CATO Institute, 
"Reining In The Public Sector"

Former Governor Pawlenty (R-MN), a current GOP Presidential candidate, continues to impress me. Any citizen who applauds Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker's noble efforts on behalf of the average taxpayer to rein in collective bargaining abuse by self-centered public sector Sally Brown's ("All I want is what I have coming to me. All I want is my fair share.") will cheer on the governor as he talks about confronting Minnesota transit workers (15 years, then retire with health insurance for life).

I Like My Steak and Burgers 
As I Like Government Regulation: 

Medium Rare

No doubt the government denies their hands are on my juicy, flavorful burger (they require all bureaucrats to wear gloves...) Did I mention that customer is having his second tough, dry, tasteless burger this week, when his doctor told him he could only have one? Whoops! And burger joint managers and owners aren't even required to hold credentials like a degree from McDonald's Hamburger University! And let's not forget the HCAs and PAHs in charred meats! Oh, and the Omega-6/Omega-3 ratio is much higher (pro-inflammatory) in conventionally finished (grain-fed animal) meats...

Harmon Killebrew's Widow Nita's 
Emotional Memorial Speech

(followed by personal tribute song)

Stand Up To Cancer: Killebrew blog tribute  Home Page  Shop  Donate

iTunes song: Joss Stone/Dave Stewart

Political Humor

"Arnold Schwarzenegger fathered a child with a maid. She kept the child secret for 14 years. John Edwards is going, 'Why can't I meet a chick like that?'" –Jay Leno

[Arnold knew that he was in trouble as soon as the scandal sheets stumbled upon Abbottabad, CA. Thank goodness they didn't interview the rest of the maid staff and kids in the mansion...]

"The Supreme Court has upheld Arizona's law which penalizes employers for hiring workers who are in the country illegally. And in a related story, in Phoenix a head of lettuce now costs 137 dollars." –Jay Leno

[Arizona is off to a slow start. For some reason, all the enforcers are asking to leave work early so they can be home when the kids get out of school...]

Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

Chicago, "No Tell Lover"

Miscellany: 5/30/11 Memorial Day!

Memorial Day 2011

Never Forget:

Freedom Has A Price

Quote of the Day

The glory of friendship is not the outstretched hand, nor the kindly smile, nor the joy of companionship; it is the spiritual inspiration that comes to one when he discovers that someone else believes in him and is willing to trust him with his friendship.

Ralph Waldo Emerson

Changing of the Guard [since 1937]

Tomb of the Unknown Soldier [Unknowns]

Arlington National Cemetery

Youtube Video Comment Update: "Sgt. Adam L. Dickmyer (the one doing the inspection), age 26, was killed in action in Afghanistan on Oct. 28, 2010". [Video upload date: 7/31/2007]   RIP, Sergeant!

   

Presidential Speech at Joplin, MO: Thumbs UP!

I am not indifferent to the tragedies to the stunning number or size of tornadoes this year; in particular, I have to admit the tornado that hit Joplin was particularly devastating. I think I saw the first one on Fox News Channel first; the follow-up to that video is here. I have to give President Obama props when he delivers the right speech (rather than partisan nonsense). The President was on target with a powerful, well-delivered, inspirational message.

And one last point I want to make, obviously in the rebuilding process there are a lot of families who are thankful that they’re okay. But they’ve been displaced. It’s not just their homes; many of them lost their means of transportation. The school has been destroyed. And so for all Americans, to take a little bit of time out and make a contribution to the American Red Cross or other charitable organizations that are active here in Joplin, that can make an enormous difference. Even if it’s just $5, $10, whatever you’ve got to spare -- because one of the things that’s striking about this -- and I felt the same way when I was down in Alabama -- this can happen to anybody. The difference between you being in the path of this twister and a few blocks away, you being okay, is a very slim, slim margin. And so we've all got to put together because here but for the grace of God go I.

The "Third Rail" of American Politics? A Comment

I think whenever I've seen this metaphor used, nobody has bothered to explain it. Electric traction power is often the most economical power source to use by trains in urban/mass transit systems and is distributed through a third, conductor rail; the trains connect to the conductor rail through "shoes" (metal contact blocks). (The power typically is direct current, supplied from a number of sub-stations.) For safety reasons, pedestrians are warned to stay away from potentially deadly contact with the conductor rail.

In a similar way, politicians are warned to stay away from dangerous political issues or sacred cows in American politics. There are a number of obvious "third rails": retirement programs (social security and Medicare); unemployment compensation; collective bargaining; the spread of democracy; farm subsidies; mortgage interest deductibility; the separation of church and state; honoring the troops and their families; compensation or other support for favored public sector professions (e.g., police, firemen, and teachers); the Second Amendment; middle-class taxes; the right to privacy; against "amnesty" for unauthorized aliens; support for Israel; and prosecution and isolation of pedophiles.

I'm not going to suggest here that I have a magic solution for finding consensus over relevant issues. I do think sometimes change occurs unexpectedly. For example, the Democrats during the 1960's couldn't afford to be seen as soft on communism, and it took staunchly anti-Communist President Nixon to thread a needle between supporting China and protecting Taiwan. More recently, we have seen the heavily-Democratic state government in Massachusetts signal possible collective bargaining reform for public sector employees.

I do think though that dramatic changes can take place, and I don't think sacred cows are that set in stone as partisans believe. Take, for instance, Medicare, which operates on a different business model (the federal government reimburses providers directly). Senator Schumer (D-NY) repeatedly demanded yesterday on Meet the Press that the Republicans take the Ryan Medicare reform off the table. The fact is that the House approved the reform and over 40 Senators voted for it; it is immediately and indisputably relevant; the Democrats don't have a counterproposal. Senator Schumer's belief that the Dems can win back the House next year by running on a "don't change Medicare" platform is absurd; after all, did the Democrats ride the wave of success of Bill Owens winning the special election in NY-23 in 2009? Senator Schumer is conveniently forgetting that the unlikely productivity increases (i.e., reimbursement cuts) of Medicare providers being used to underwrite ObamaCare is likely to result in fewer providers for senior citizens; Ryan is suggesting reforms to health care options years from now that are similar to what middle-aged workers are working with in the private sector today. I'm not arguing for the Senate to revisit Medicare this session. But I would argue that the Ryan failure had more to do with poor political strategy and losing control of the message.

I honestly do believe that most Americans, for instance, are willing to fairly share the sacrifice needed to bring the nation's checkbook in balance (including senior citizens).

From John Kelly, "Long Killebrew drives and satellite orbits":

Randy Eckstein grew up a couple of miles from the Ravensworth neighborhood. When Randy saw last week’s column, he pulled out his 1962 copy of Home Run Hitters Magazine (Issue #1 ) and found an article that begins: “In a Springfield, Virginia, housing development there is a street named ‘Killebrew Drive’ in honor of Harmon Killebrew, the home run hitting hero of the Washington Senators and Minnesota Twins. It is not surprising that it is the development’s longest drive.” 

Randy met Killebrew at Twinsfest in Minneapolis in January 2008. He showed the slugger a photo of the street sign. Wrote Randy: “He verified that the street was named in his honor in 1960 and told me that he had tried twice during that season to find it, to no avail. I guess there was no ribbon-cutting ceremony or smashing of champagne bottles. But we are talking about a much smaller world, a much simpler time. And what a kind and gracious man he was the day I met him and apparently his entire life. He will always be my hero. And you know what? They should have named the whole town after him.”

Fukushima Nuclear Incident Update

Hiroshima Syndrome notes:

• Monday update: Fukushima Daiichi reactor 5, which went into cold shutdown successfully several weeks back, had a seawater pump failure, affecting residual heat removal for the RPV and spent fuel pools; the pump has been replaced and cooling restored. We now have residual heat removal for the first 4 spent fuel ponds. The blogger discusses a number of topics relevant to surface accumulations of radioactive byproducts, e.g., cesium and iodine: cows from the Daiichi evacuation zone show no contamination (but are not allowed to return to graze), there's a discussion of removing a few inches of top soil around schools to lower exposure, and a small fraction of sea bottom samples show measurable, but not unduly excessive radiation levels. TEPCO is indicating it may take action against plant manager Masao Yoshida whom paid lip service to the Japanese Prime Minister whom wanted to shut down seawater coolant injections during the early hours of the crisis, which would have undeniably resulted in even worse fuel meltdown: thumbs DOWN! Finally, the blogger addresses some of the farmers' losses resulting from irrational public fears about radiation levels in food, already disproved by sampling procedures, will be covered by the Japanese government, although the government seems to go out of its way to label anti-nuke attitudes "understandable".

Political Humor

A woman in Chicago with large breasts is accused of being hired to sit next to a man and distract the jury. When asked for his ruling the judge said, "I'm sorry, could you repeat that?" - Conan O'Brien

[Um, Conan, the judge is a woman. Not that there is anything wrong with that. It also turns out the plaintiff attorney's paralegal is his wife.  The judge could tell that the defense attorney for a used car dealership was distracted (arguing that the disputed vehicle's headlights, bumpers, airbags, and windshield wipers were fine, just fine, kept referring to the figures under clause DDD of the contract, noting the time by saying there's too much sand in the hourglass, and complaining that the plaintiff's attorney had not kept him abreast of any new development); the judge ruled that the defense attorney's motion was over the top.]

"President Obama is on a visit to England. He told the Queen yesterday, 'I like your tea parties much better than the ones we have in America.'" –Jay Leno

[The Queen understood. She recalled a particularly unhappy one of them a while back in Boston: three shiploads of tea were spoiled, and the invoice was still outstanding. Obama apologized for his predecessors and promised to reimburse England for her losses (including those long overdue taxes).]

Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

Chicago, "Alive Again"

Miscellany: 5/29/11

Quote of the Day

I love those who yearn for the impossible.

Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

Memorial Day: A Tribute To the Ultimate Sacrifice For Freedom

For many, tomorrow is the start of the summer travel season, the culmination of a 3-day weekend and family barbecues. Today was the 100th anniversary of the Indianapolis 500 which saw a dramatic finish as Dan Wheldon just ahead of rookie JR Hildebrand whom suffered a crash around the final corner. But let us take a moment to remember the reason for the holiday: a number of courageous young men have answered their country's call to service, paying the highest price for the sustenance of liberty we have enjoyed for the centuries of this republic. I will never forget.

Government Of the Bureaucrat,
By the Bureaucrat,
For the Bureaucrat
Gettysburg [Your Home Here] Address

• State Edition: Oregon Bureaucrats Shut Down an 82-Year-Old Barber

Eighty-two-year-old barber Dale Smith of Old Town Sherwood, Oregon inadvertently neglected the timely renewal of his barber license back in 2006, 50 years after passing his initial exam. The state bureaucracy finally caught up him this past January 14 (isn't there a statute of limitations on bureaucratic stupidity?) and shut Dale's Barbershop down: to regain his license, he would have to pass the original barber exam, a practical exam showing he can cut hair, and a current Oregon rules and regulations written exam (covering topics like hair and nail chemicals, which he doesn't use). The Oregon Board of Cosmetology was willing to waive the first exam (bless their little hearts), but, insisting "rules are rules: it's not fair to the others", refused to budge on the last two, pleased with their consistency in prohibiting his regular customers (whom readily attest to the quality of their haircut experience) and him from exercising their economic liberty because of arbitrary rules and regulations... Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Over fifty years of satisfied customers, more than willing to put up the bargain $8, but the state isn't satisfied; it doesn't matter if Smith doesn't dye his customers' hair or give his customers manicures: he needs to do it "because we said so". Of course, the bureaucratic view of consistency wouldn't have had a problem with Dale Smith not having had to jump through those same hoops if he had simply processed his license renewal promptly. (I mean, I might understand the assessment of a late penalty, but the business death penalty is excessive...)

Dale Smith decided that it wasn't just worth the hassle of satisfying the bureaucracy in order to continue being a taxpaying, productive member of society (while people 20 years his junior are filing for social security). Larry Watson of Tigard bought the shop and will continue to operate it under Dale's given name. (Pure class, Mr. Watson: thumbs UP!)

Randy Everitt, director of the Oregon Health Licensing Agency: I'm going to have to cite you for operating a state bureaucracy under the influence of progressive legislators. I also conclude that you don't meet the job requirement minimum of an ounce of common sense.

• Local Edition: El Pasoans Win More Dining Choices

Food trucks aren't just your typical sidewalk cart anymore, providing economically priced food, including, but not restricted to, upscale burgers or hot dogs, specialty ethnic cuisine, lobster rolls, and distinctive desserts. Restaurants in El Paso wanted to zone their food truck competitors out of business...

Putting a Human Face on the Unintended Consequences

of Unauthorized Drug Policy Enforcement

Following up on yesterday's post, which explored a libertarian perspective on outlawed drugs, a topic motivated by the presidential campaigns of former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson and Congressman Ron Paul, I decided to provide a retrospective of a case that got some national attention 3 years ago. Ten-year-old Jayci Yaeger was dying of brain cancer. She had one final wish: a hug from her daddy, Jason Yaeger, in the final year of a 5 1/2 year sentence in a minimum-security federal prison on drug-related charges. Yaeger sought any number of remedies, including extending his sentence by any time granted for a compassion furlough, so he could spend time comforting his scared daughter at her own request in her final days. Under public pressure, the prison finally relented and allowed one escorted visit of just 20 minutes; by then, she was unconscious, but they think she knew, that "she was hanging on for daddy". Less than 2 days later, Jayci died. A year later, Jason, then free, recalled that the prison escorts had refused to let him be a pallbearer at the funeral; he had more freedom going to lunch across a public street to the jail cafeteria during his sentence. (The prison PR machine pathetically noted the "extraordinary" lengths the prison went through to accommodate Yaeger, including a handful of 'free' phone calls; the family inferred Jayci, lapsing in and out of consciousness, recognized her daddy's voice by her tears or labored breathing. That beautiful gift from God did no wrong to be kept away from her daddy's strong, reassuring arms and comforting words. Brain cancer is an unrelenting, merciless foe which does not recognize the authority of our justice system; it is unwilling to wait out arbitrary, inconvenient sentences.)

My personal opinion is the prison's inflexible handling of the situation constituted a violation of the Eighth Amendment (i.e., against cruel and unusual punishment) and the uncompassionate actions of prison management were morally unjust and reprehensible. I do not know the specifics of Yaeger's drug offense, but I do not see how keeping him from his dying daughter, when it counted, served the interests of justice.

Initial Media Report: Jayci's Dying Wish

Follow-Up Report: Jason's Visit and Jayci's Passing

Harmon Killebrew's 1984 Hall of Fame Induction

Just a note here: unfortunately, Harmon Killebrew, who never made more than $120K in a season, ran into personal and financial problems during the years following his induction. Elaine, the childhood sweetheart he married (and introduced during his address below), was granted a divorce on grounds of irreconcilable differences five years years later, allegedly over a relationship with his long-time secretary. Harmon married Nita a year later. An interesting bit of trivia, at least to me: Harmon Killebrew appeared in only one World Series, which the Twins lost in a full 7-game series against the Dodgers in 1965. He hit his only Series home run off Don Drysdale in a game 4 loss. Don Drysdale was one of his fellow HOF inductees.

Fukushima Nuclear Incident Update

This is a reminder that I am reducing my updates to three per week starting on Mondays, every other day.

Political Humor

"Rudy Giuliani says he may run for President. So now we're up to 7 candidates and 35 ex-wives." –Jimmy Fallon

[Not to mention up to three candidates in a dress....]

"They [the British] drive on other side of the road there, so Obama had to switch sides — kind of like Mitt Romney is doing over here." –Jay Leno

[Obama took to driving left of center like a duck to water. But when he drives back home, he finds the exits from Iraq and Afghanistan blocked and the road to Gitmo is still open.]

Musical Interlude: My Favorite Group

Chicago, "Take Me Back to Chicago"

Miscellany: 5/28/11

Quote of the Day

I think the purpose of life is to be useful, to be responsible, to be honorable, to be compassionate. It is, after all, to matter: to count, to stand for something, to have made some difference that you lived at all.

Leo C. Rosten

Political Potpourri

I want to discuss a couple of things I haven't heard or read other pundits mention: (1) the Tea Party momentum is experiencing a correction; will it rebound by election time next year?; (2) people need to be looking at next year's Presidential election from a federal standpoint, not popular vote matchups.

• Loss of Tea Party Momentum

There is the obvious case of NY-26, a second straight New York special election (after NY-23 as Obama,  in a stroke of political genius, converted a safe Republican seat by getting John McHugh to accept a relatively modest post as Secretary of the Army--and amazingly stuck in the middle of last fall's GOP tsunami) where the Tea Party was counterproductive.

This brings up the strange candidacy of Jack Davis, a so-called Tea Party candidate whom served as a spoiler. However, he was not a spoiler in the normal sense of a political spoiler: he has been a registered Republican over most of his adult life, but during the past decade, he had a falling out with VP Dick Cheney over the administration's free trade policies and unsuccessfully ran as the Democratic candidate against Republican Tom Reynolds in the 2004 and 2006 elections; he failed to win the Democratic nomination for the 2008 election. He re-registered as a Republican in 2010, by allying himself with new Congressman Chris Lee, and when Chris "Too Sexy For My Shirt" Lee resigned earlier this year, Davis tried to secure the GOP nomination. The local GOP leadership decided to pass because of his suspect party loyalty and his strong stands against immigration and free trade. Do you need to ask what a 3-time failed candidate for the seat would do when he didn't get the GOP nod? Consider Doug Hoffman of NY-23 when the local GOP leadership declined to name him... This was somewhat different in the sense the Conservative Party did not offer Davis their nomination, but Davis is a wealthy businessman and had other political allies.

This leads to the discussion of what I consider the strange political alliance behind the Tea Party movement: I prefer to view it as the media conservative attempts to latch onto, co-opt or hijack the original libertarian outrage over Big Government Run Amok. Recall Rick Santelli's clarion call was in reaction to the government subsidizing (even more) home mortgage payments of irresponsible people whom bought more house than they could afford. Why stop with health care and mortgages? The growth of government, which by necessity as at the expense of individual liberty, surpasses economic growth and also undermines self-reliance and other traditional American values.

Economic liberty involves a number of things including minimizing government interference in my attempts to run and grow my business. If I find the best-quality, competitively-priced gizmo to build my widget is overseas, I don't want artificial trade restrictions holding my business hostage. Similarly if I find local labor at a price point I need for my widgets to be competitive insufficient, I don't want government unduly restricting my access to other willing laborers. From a philosophical basis, it's clear that Tea Party principles are logically consistent with pro-immigration, free trade policies and totally incompatible with protectionist, anti-immigrant policies--the kinds of things that Jack Davis was running on.

Before going further, I've been critical of sanctuary cities and also Obama Administration border enforcement policies; tactically I see the Obama Administration picking and choosing enforcement for crony political advantage and/or playing misleading numbers games by deferring or expediting the return of unauthorized foreign visitors. I think any long-term solutions must look at a more effective approach to the border issue by addressing, among other things, the drug problem (see the next segment) and/or a more viable temporary foreign worker program.

So as Jack Davis support began to retreat, we saw almost all of his support go not to GOP candidate Corwin, but to Democrat Kathy Hochul instead of Republican Jane Corwin. Why is that? Let me take a wild guess: first, a lot of Jack Davis' support could have come from his Democratic supporters from 3 prior runs for the House seat. Second, there are a number of pro-union Democrats whom espouse protectionist and anti-immigrant policies (immigrants are perceived as threats to maintaining high labor prices).

If you are a principled Tea Party supporter, like myself, it's hard to be encouraged. In order to keep status quo tax brackets for job creators, we ended up giving up much more in additional spending; we gave up a relative 2% payroll tax on income, which hardly helped the solvency of these programs. Not exactly we believe that the federal government should be in these entitlement businesses in the first place. We are appalled that Paul Ryan, even for modest reform, has to reassure people within several years of retirement, never mind current retirees, that the Medicare reform wouldn't impact any of them--no sacrifices whatsoever in helping shore up massively underfunded liabilities. In addition, we've seen the Republican House get snookered into a budget issue that failed to make any significant cuts short of a rounding error as the White House preposterously defends six-figure compensation packages for ineffectual bureaucrats as an economic "stimulus"--talk about putting lipstick on a pig. We have Obama, Geithner, and Biden running around Capitol Hill like Chicken Little, signaling dire economic consequences for failing to raise the debt ceiling--but unwilling to move an inch towards responsible deficit reduction, only willing to consider gimmicks. While local and state governments are slashing programs, operating hours and personnel, the federal government seems to go on, business as usual. 

The Tea Party support had its hands full just fending off a Wisconsin progressive attempt to sabotage the reelection of a respected state Supreme Court judge whom won over half the open primary votes, roughly twice the runner-up. A recent poll shows former US Senator Feingold with a 10-point lead over former GOP Governor Tommy Thompson. Three polls in Florida show Senator Nelson (D), defending his seat next year, up by a formidable 20 points or more (although below 50%). Have the Republicans overplayed their hand? Are they experiencing a backlash due to unrealistic expectations of a GOP-controlled House? Will the economy rebound enough to sweep the Dems back into control like the last Congress?

I am not a political strategist, and I am not running the RNC. I will make the following points: (1) the Republicans need to be assertive and not defensive, e.g., Ryan's point about people not realizing there are no short-term costs to Medicare reform under his plan; (2) the Republicans cannot afford to let Obama and the Congressional Democrats define them, and they must not be predictable; (3) the Republicans and Tea Party in selecting candidates for the 2012 general elections must avoid the Senate race mistakes last  year and nominate candidates whom are not polarizing, are flexible or pragmatic versus ideological; they need to deliver on the message that Obama has failed to deliver on: authentic bipartisanship; (4) it is extraordinarily important, in running against Obama, that they stick to indisputable facts and not attack him personally: they need in particular to address his failure of leadership in entitlement reform, energy independence and fiscal discipline, his overly partisan dealings with the Congress; his inability to cope with the great recession, his indecisiveness and convoluted foreign policy, and inability to deliver on his promises; (5) it is important that the House does something productive in this term; to use a baseball analogy, instead of swinging for the fences, go for batting average. Maybe it's a reform agenda involving sunshine policies, auditing the Fed, divesting companies, streamlining government operations, eliminating government subsidies, etc: dare the President to veto a reform measure.

With the Hochul victory and early Senate Democratic leads, do the Dems have a chance to recapture the House or retain the Senate or the Presidency? Not a chance--if the GOP  plays it right. In fact, if the GOP nominates the right candidates, it can increase its House majority and retake the Senate in an impressive fashion. I think the Republicans in NY-26 were sending the GOP a message: the 2010 election was NOT a referendum on Medicare; focus like a laser beam on economic and job growth; get spending under control; cut regulations and high business taxes. 

To regain NY-26, all the GOP has to do is switch a handful of votes a year from this fall. The Hochul victory is a one-off, not a pattern. All Hochul had to do to win is defend the status quo on Medicare. The status quo is not sustainable; that's an inconvenient truth. If you are going to do anything about entitlements, you have to deal with the political facts on the ground: a Democratic-controlled Senate and White House. That means going to the bipartisan deficit reduction committee recommendations; notice that the Democrats aren't pushing it, but it's a low-risk strategy for Republicans: they can box in the President. If the Republicans can bounce back from the Ryan failure and show the message was received, they should be in good shape. If the economy is struggling in the fall of 2012, the President and Senate Democratic majority are  done, no matter whom the GOP serves up.

• Obama, the GOP and Next Year's Presidential Election

The Gallup Presidential job approval poll continues to oscillate near the 50% approval rating for Obama. The PPP shows only one Republican, Romney, within single digits of Obama. The only thing you can guarantee is that the following existing or potential candidates don't have a realistic shot against Obama: Sarah Palin; Michele Bachmann; Newt Gingrich; Ron Paul; Gary Johnson; Rick Santorum and Herman Cain. Stick a fork in any of them: they're done. I guarantee all these people have strong supporters whom will disagree with me, but they all have high negatives or are seen as unelectable (e.g., Paul and Johnson) or inexperienced (Cain). Keep in mind we are talking about independents and moderates. Almost any Republican can retain the McCain states; the issue is whom can take swing states from Obama, e.g., Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Indiana and/or Florida. Maybe, and this would be a big blow to Obama--even Illinois. (Take into account that Governor Quinn barely held on against a largely unknown GOP challenger, and Republican Mark Kirk took Obama's old Senate seat.)

I seriously have to laugh at those pundits whom are relying on head-to-head polls to conclude the 2012 election is Obama's to lose and he has no credible challengers. There are very few McCain states that Obama can take away from the GOP challenger: maybe Missouri, which McCain just barely held. I think you have to look at the race from a federal/electoral standpoint; in many of the swing states, GOP candidates won key gubernatorial and/or Senate seats. Even with Obama's approval at or above 50%, he's beating generic GOP challengers in the mid-40's by one or 2 points. I don't think many independents or moderates know candidates like Romney or Pawlenty. But they are very competent, experienced governors, and they will match up very well against Obama. Some will say Pawlenty is boring, ask the average independent or moderate voter how his vote for a charismatic Obama has worked for him.

Thursday Gallup published its first poll following the Trump/Huckabee/Daniels withdrawals. Romney leads Palin by a small advantage; CNN put Giuliani into the mix and Giuliani, a previously unlisted name, barely tops Romney, with Palin slightly behind.

Just an observation here: I think that Romney's lead is understated, and let me tell you why: it's not just Morris' poll has him at about 30%. There are a lot of undecided's, and Romney will get a number of those. Palin has repeatedly oscillated around the mid-teens, even though she has had massive publicity and highest favorable ratings among Republicans. She has no hope of overcoming the fact she quit as governor, the fact she participated in the 2008 election loss to Obama, her thin qualifications, and her high unfavorable ratings among moderates and independents. If and when she gets into the race, she is going to face a negative campaign (I myself would volunteer to run it for free) like she's never experienced. Why? It's politics. She's not going to be able to run a big-boys-are-hitting-little-girls-with-glasses campaign. She's going to have to debate people like Mitt Romney with two Harvard graduate degrees, whom knows how to turn around failing companies, looks the part of a President, and is more articulate than either Palin or Obama. Palin doesn't seem to remember what happened to Quayle, whom initially entered the race for the 2000 GOP nomination. Palin as an outsider exerts far more influence than as a candidate. If and when she loses badly in the primaries, she becomes just another failed candidate and becomes irrelevant. (If she was smart, she would bide her time and run for the Senate against Begich. Don't think about Arizona: Jeff Flake has paid his dues.)

I should say that Romney is sorely testing my patience and support. His rebuke of Pawlenty's call for the elimination of ethanol subsidies is intolerable: it's bad enough he has failed to distance himself enough away from RomneyCare (to me, it's a no-brainer: if you veto parts and the legislature overrides your veto,  Governor Patrick has mismanaged the reform and/or the Massachusetts resident finds to hard to identify a doctor or schedule an appointment, you don't take credit for the bad things: you come up with a lessons learned for federal health care policy). The only thing I can figure is that Romney is trying to distance himself away from Pawlenty in Iowa for political reasons: the idea that the federal government should be "investing" in ethanol production, is just another too-much-like-Obama industrial policy/crony capitalism. Does Romney understand he is running against Obama and wants to clearly distinguish between Obama and himself?

The rumored potential new candidates into the GOP are interesting. Former "America's Mayor" Giuliani has a strong appeal to the centrist Republican base and his 2008 race largely collapsed because he was competing with McCain for  the same voters. Governor Rick Perry (TX) brings a long tenure as perhaps America's biggest economically successful state over the past decade, attracting residents and businesses, medical malpractice tort reform, etc.; amazingly, he ran an anti-incumbent campaign for reelection last fall.

One thing is for sure: the Obama reelection team has already signaled a negative campaign for 2012. Maybe it worked for an unpopular Blagojevich running for election in 2006, but Obama found in the fall/winter 2009 and 2010 elections his partisan voter appeals didn't get anywhere. It's a risky double-edged sword because his personal appeal runs ahead of his policies, and a nasty campaign will hurt his brand image, and even if the economy improves, it will likely be viewed as too little, too late.

Should Drugs Be Legalized?

Let me make myself clear: I have one major problem which is shared by many Americans: I'm obese. Unfortunately, we need to eat, and losing weight is complicated: it's not just a matter of cutting calories: metabolism can slow in a starvation defense, meaning you might not lose weight even if you cut down your calories. Furthermore, you often lose muscle, not just fat, and muscle helps you burn calories. That being said, I would not be happy if Dietitian in Chief Michelle Obama decided to dictate my diet and exercise regimen. I do realize the correlation between excess weight and health problems. But ultimately it is my responsibility to diet and exercise responsibly. (I have a separate nutrition blog, and I mention that I don't keep sugary desserts or junk food.)

I don't believe in (and have never used) illegal drugs, and I disapprove of prostitution on moral grounds. I've never smoked and almost never drink alcohol. I'm not saying that to be morally self-superior. I do understand the very real risks of alcoholism and drug addiction.

After hearing Johnson on Hannity's Presidential candidate interview series talk about the issue of legalization (by the way, Hannity didn't challenge Johnson's assertion, but Johnson's claim to being the only  advocate on this issue is manifestly false: Ron Paul is a former Libertarian candidate for President and has the same views and perspective), I decided to flesh out the views. 

I don't like the idea of making mind-altering substances more affordable from the standpoint of supply and demand: the cheaper the price, the more demand for a good or service. I think there are increased public safety risks (e.g., driving privileges), young people with still developing brains will somehow gain access because of parental negligence, and there will be an inevitably higher number of addicts. 

Why would I start to reconsider my position, even though I lack respect for people whom use? For one thing, it's almost impossible to enforce the ban of dysfunctional human behavior (or know where to draw the line); in essence, we know that a high price for a certain good doesn't discourage the underlying motive for the transaction; thus, people may seek alternate, cheaper  and/or readily available or makable substitutes (say, inhalant abuse or whatever). Often the effects of these substitute goods themselves may be potentially even more toxic. There are some things you can do with a certain degree of regulation: for instance, you can verify the sexual health of a prostitute, you can ensure a standard dose/quality/purity of a substance. You eliminate the high margins currently attracting criminal enterprises, unintended consequences of these activities (say, drive-by shootings), or criminal behavior by addicts to support their habits. Drugs lords can't afford the enormous investments in digging tunnels under the US border or delivering drugs by submarines if they couldn't pass along the costs to their customers. Most importantly, we wouldn't have a disproportionate number of criminals relative to other countries, clogging our justice system and overcrowding our prison systems, not to mention innocent crime victims, all in a misguided attempt to keep people from being held responsible for their health-threatening behavior.

There are a number of reasons I've started to gravitate to this point of view: first, I've seen the TSA throw more and more resources at airline safety, which can largely negated by simple breakdowns in communication (i.e., the underwear bomber), overly tired air traffic controllers, poor airplane maintenance or drunk pilots. Second, there was this week's Supreme Court decision backing the order to downsize the number of California state prisoners to 137% capacity--meaning tens of thousands of convicts potentially released; it is highly likely the drug war is a significant factor driving up prison populations. Third, the US has an unusually higher proportion of homicides, once again perhaps reflecting the drug war. This is what Friedman is talking about in terms of the moral aspects related to drug criminalization (besides, say, a large percentage of young black men living with a related criminal record which to me seems tragic).

The following interviews involve economists I greatly respect. I'm not endorsing their perspective here; I'm a researcher and scientist by nature and need to review the data, not the hype, but I'm providing information that the reader may find relevant in making his own decision.

Fukushima Nuclear Incident Update

This is a reminder that I am reducing my updates to three per week starting on Mondays, every other day.

Political Humor

"One of Sarah Palin's supporters is about to release a documentary about her called 'The Undefeated.' That's like a documentary about Arnold Schwarzenegger called 'The Faithful.'" –Jimmy Fallon

[There's also the ongoing drama documentary on the 2008 supporters of Barack Obama called 'The Lemmings'.]

"New video has surfaced of Arnold Schwarzenegger in 1991 saying the housekeeper does a 'great job.' One clue might have been that he then added, 'And she's also a great housekeeper.'" –Conan O'Brien

[Conan, you have it all wrong:  Arnold's mistress was complaining that he treated her like the maid.]

Review of Killebrew Memorial: Some Excerpts

Craig Swalboski, "At Killebrew memorial, we didn't mind hearing it all again"

• "We didn’t mind hearing again the quote from Harmon’s father, when his mother complained that young Harmon and his brothers were wearing out the lawn: 'We’re not raising grass, we’re raising boys.'" [What a tribute to any father to have raised such an outstanding young man! They know how to raise them good and strong in Idaho!]
  
• "We didn’t mind hearing again about his generosity in helping countless charities, including $9 million toward cancer research and treatment through a golf tournament he’s sponsored for 34 years in honor of former Twins teammate Danny Thompson, a leukemia victim."
• "We didn’t mind hearing again about his professionalism. Torii Hunter, Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau all told similar stories of Killebrew chiding them for illegible autographs. In each case, the younger player took to heart Killebrew’s suggestion that “you want people to always know who you are” years after signing your name."
  
• “'He knew; when he hit it, he’d take a couple of slow steps, toss the bat and then go into a brisk trot (around the bases) so as not to show up the pitcher,' his teammate of 14 years, [pitcher] Jim Kaat, said. "
  

Former Pitching Teammate Fulfills Killebrew Family Request:

Jim 'Mudcat' Grant's Eloquent Interpretation

of a Killebrew Personal Favorite Song Request

Channeling my inner American Idol judge: "Mad props to Mudcat! Dude, that's HOT! Louis Armstrong would be proud!" This is one of the best performances I've ever heard of this song, a personal favorite, by any singer, professional or amateur; I pride myself as a tenor being able to interpret a song, and I don't think I could ever improve on Jim's meaningful staccato delivery.

Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

Chicago, "Baby, What a Big Surprise". Cetera once again proves himself a pop music songwriting genius and outstanding vocalist with the group's last top 5 hit of the 1970's. He would go on to write the band's second #1 song and two more top 5 hits before turning solo in the mid 1980's.