The latest rumor going around that McCain has made his Veep selection and will announce/appear with him or her tomorrow. (There is also a rumor that McCain could try to steal the thunder from Obama's acceptance address tonight by swerving the press and naming his choice today, but I don't consider that credible.)
I've discussed in previous posts primarily 3 picks: (1) Mitt Romney, because of his business and executive experience as Massachusetts governor; (2) Tim Pawlenty, the Minnesota governor with a McCain-like populism; (3) a female, likely Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R-TX) or Meg Whitman, former eBay CEO, whom McCain specifically referenced in the Saddleback Civil Forum.
I was mystified by Obama's choice of Joe Biden, a pick I still regard as a strategic blunder. It's not that we haven't seen campaign rivals team up on a ticket before, the most prominent example being Ronald Reagan picking George H.W. Bush, whom infamously referenced Reagan's supply-side economics "voodoo economics" (and, before that selection, Reagan had approached former President Ford, a bitter rival in the 1976 Republican race). But I think there are 3 major problems over and beyond Biden's criticisms of Obama during the Democratic campaign: (1) Obama has made "change" and "postpartisan politics" a major focus of his campaign, and choosing a 6-term senator whom has essentially been part of Washington and the partisan wars for most of his adult life essentially negates his whole campaign message; (2) Biden is far more qualified to head the ticket, causing a stark competency contrast such as the 1988 Dukakis selection of Lloyd Bentsen; and (3) Biden's voting record is virtually identical (very liberal), which doesn't help Obama reach independents and moderates.
One of the persistant rumors is that McCain might try to shake things up by picking a pro-abortion-choice candidate, in particular, former Democratic Veep candidate Joe Lieberman, whom endorsed McCain months ago. There are problems with this, especially given the issue of McCain's age; we have only to recall that Lincoln reached across the aisle to pick Andrew Johnson for a national unity ticket, and after Lincoln's assassination, President Johnson vetoed the Republican Congress' first Civil Rights legislation for emancipated blacks. Second, Lieberman has at best a strained relationship with his Senate caucus colleagues; recent polls in Connecticut show his job approval ratings dipping below 50% and just 26% among Connecticut Democrats. If McCain was going to pick a national unity candidate, he needs to go beyond just military and foreign policy and look at so-called Blue Dog Democrats whom might also agree with him on economic policy, e.g., a federal balanced budget. In addition, Lieberman doesn't help him on the administrative or business experience front, and he would further aggravate already strained relations with the conservative Republican base. From my perspective, Lieberman is a non-starter.
I thought the McCain camp signaled, by immediately highlighting Biden's differences with Obama, it was all but conceding Romney would not be the choice. We have already seen Democrats trying to anticipate Romney's selection by talking about his "job killer"/"ship jobs to China" record at Bain Capital, the number of Romney's houses (after the infamous John McCain fumbled question on how many houses his wife owns or controls), etc. I think Romney would appeal to the base, complement and may shore up his chances at Michigan and maybe other states (but probably not his governed state of Massachusetts). However, I think Romney's flip-flopping would make it more difficult for the McCain campaign's desire to highlight Obama's politically expedient position shifts discussed in prior posts (e.g., capital punishment for child predators, the gun rights decision by the Supreme Court, offshore drilling, etc.), and I'm not convinced he would play well with independents and moderates; despite heavily outspending his Republican opponents, he prevailed primarily in places like his father's home state of Michigan and a few states McCain didn't actively compete for on Super Tuesday due to resource constraints.
Pawlenty would be acceptable to the Republican base and would add a great deal to the ticket, in terms of showing a bipartisan record as a Massachusetts governor and with a maverick reputation that is compatible with McCain's style of Republicanism. The major issues I see are his energy on the stump and his matchup with Joe Biden; in particular, we don't need to see a replay of the 1988 Bentsen-Quayle matchup. Perhaps most of all, Pawlenty would be a "safe choice" but not a bold stroke that McCain could use to trump Obama's predictable choice of Biden.
The bold stroke I mention in a prior post would be naming a qualified female, which would be a first in the history of the GOP and a master stroke to play off Obama's "change" decision to name a career Washington politician and to bypass the female politician whom drew over 18 million votes. There is some scuttlebutt on the Web that relations between McCain and Hutchinson are cool, and hence her star is fading, but I disagree. First of all, even if true (regarding interpersonal compatibility), one can point to multiple tickets of a similar nature, including JFK-LBJ and Reagan-Bush. Second, Kay Bailey Hutchinson is well-vetted, has a pro-life record and a business background as a banker (which is topical given the current housing/mortgage crisis) and prior administrative experience in state government. I'm fairly confident that Kay Bailey can hold her own with Joe Biden.
To me, it's an obvious choice, and I'm pleased to see her name pop up more and more in the media as John's decision nears. It would be a transformational pick that fits well with McCain's style.
