Analytics

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Obama Running Mate: My Take

To me, the selection of a running mate for Barack Obama is obvious, although the name doesn't seem to be on any other pundit's current short list: New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson.

Bill Richardson has Congressional experience, diverse national and state administrative credentials --in particular, a white-hot current domestic policy issue, energy. His UN/diplomatic service, directly or on an as-needed basis across party Administrations, dovetails nicely with Barack's approach to international affairs and provides gravitas to the discussion. He's a popular moderate governor in a border swing state, and in that politically correct criterion of ethnic diversity, Bill's mother is Hispanic (just as Barack's father is Kenyan). Obama seems to be doing better with Hispanics in the general campaign than he was during the primaries, but given Obama's love for the symbolic (e.g., Brandenburg, etc.), this is a liberal media's dream-come-true: the first black and Hispanic on any national ticket. In short, Richardson's selection would nicely complement Barack's need for an ideologically balanced and experienced partner, geographically balances the ticket with a good shot of taking back New Mexico, and could also help close ranks with Hillary Clinton supporters.

This is not to say that Richardson's choice would be without its share of problems. First, Barack Obama could face a problem like Mike Dukakis had with Lloyd Bentsen back in 1988, where the conservative Democratic senator was perceived to be far more qualified to be President. Second, Bill Richardson is not that charismatic and I do not believe he would match up well against McCain's likely choice for Veep, Mitt Romney, whom is more articulate and has more of a Presidential look. Third, I'm not sure that Bill Richardson helps Obama win any states beyond his home base. Fourth, a lot of Richardson's broad resume is fairly thin; in baseball terms, he's more of a utility player than a solid star at a position. Fifth, Richardson's attempt during the Democratic primaries to move even left of Obama in terms of the speed of a unilateral troop withdrawal would be like throwing red meat at John McCain.

If not Richardson, who? A few key Virginia statewide Democrats have been named, but they all have limited political experience and may not be able to carry their home state. The governors of Kansas and Arizona, also mentioned, have no federal experience and may not even carry their states for Obama. Hillary Clinton I don't think is viable for a number of reasons, primarily because Clinton is part of the status quo over the past generation that Obama's "change" message takes on; in addition, Hillary's resume is not really that more extensive than Barack's when you take into account his state senator experience, and their voting records are virtually identical with only modest, nuanced political differences.

Who then would be a second choice? My take of it is Evan Bayh of Indiana, the junior senator from Indiana and popular former governor (which provides administrative experience that Obama lacks) , whom could give Obama a chance to take a neighboring state that normally votes Republican. Evan Bayh had a more moderate voting record in the Senate before he made a short-lived attempt for the Democratic nomination. Bayh's nomination would not be a conventional one, because usually there would be more of an attempt to balance the ticket across regions, and from a symbolic standpoint (and Obama knows about symbolism), the two-generation Bayh politically dynasty has the same insider look and feel as the two-generation Gore and three-generation Bush dynasties--which goes against this Washington insider image Obama is targeting with his post-partisan rhetoric. However, the neighboring-state strategy has been done before, as I mentioned in an earlier post, when Arkansas Governor Clinton picked a senator from a bordering state (Gore of Tennessee).