I think Barack Obama has made a strategic mistake against John McCain. The choice of Joe Biden had largely been predicted by the media over the past week. The conventional wisdom of the liberal media is that Barack Obama is "too nice" and needed a bulldog like Biden to basically counterbalance John McCain's heavyduty foreign policy credentials and beat up on the GOP ticket.
The Democrats have for some time pushed a fiction that the "vast right-wing conspiracy" has run hardball campaigns against Democratic candidates, like the Willie Horton ad of 1988 and the "swiftboating" of 2004, has questioned the patriotism of Democratic nominees, and has run polarizing campaigns. [The patriotism questioning allegation is completely bogus; if Democratic nominees have been on the record voting against Defense appropriations or similar issues, those are legitimate issues. Some of the ads were run by third parties not under the control of the GOP campaign, but the fact of the matter is that third parties have also targeted GOP candidates as well.] There are a lot of excuses for the fact that the Democrats have a nomination process that makes it all but impossible for a more moderate candidate to win. Dukakis, Kerry, and Obama are simply way to the left of the American mainstream. The Massachusetts prison furlough program (which was symbolized by Willie Horton) was actually introduced against Dukakis by fellow Democrat Al Gore. Kerry's problems had nothing to do with the Swift Boat ads, denounced by both McCain and Bush; the fact is the Democratic convention took place in late July and these ads were run in August. Kerry never got a post-convention balance, which was highly unusual (meaning he was having a hard time building beyond the anti-Bush base). If you look at the 2000 election, where Gore and Bush finished in a statistical dead heat in the popular vote, Gore ran a class warfare campaign vs. running on one of the longest economic expansions in our history; he was personally boorish and disrespectful against Bush in the debates, he didn't win his home state, and he still couldn't put away George Bush, whom had no federal legislative, military, or foreign policy experience.
For me, the choice of Biden is mistaken because: (1) it is inconsistent with his anti-Washington change message; the fact is, Biden has been in the Senate and Washington even longer than McCain, which is curious given the Obama campaign has been arguing that McCain is a long-time insider; Biden is running for reelection for his seventh term as a Senate; (2) Biden sharply contrasts with Obama, given his thin resume, whereby the running mate is considered more qualified than the lead on the ticket; in that regard, this pair is similar to the 1988 Dukakis-Bentsen ticket; (3) Biden's credentials are oriented more towards foreign policy, and he has no special expertise on domestic issues which are critical in the current economic environment; (4) Biden's voting record is virtually identical to Obama's, and Obama needed more of a centrist candidate to compete for moderates and independents; (5) Biden, like Obama, lacks administrative experience; (6) Biden doesn't help Obama win over the working women vote which Obama could have solidified by nominating Clinton or Feinstein; (7) Biden really doesn't provide any special advantage in the electoral sweepstakes since Delaware is a reliable blue state.
The McCain camp is ecstatic, already up with blurbs of Biden praising McCain's bipartisanship and Biden's criticisms of Obama during the campaign over the country not being able to afford a "learn-on-the-job" President.
But the bigger point is whom McCain will pick to counter the Biden selection. I've previously suggested Romney because of his business and administrative experience and then Pawlenty because of his reformist appeal in a blue state. I think the Biden thing now rules out Romney because the the bitter, early primary campaign. If the McCain camp is pulling out film showing Biden criticizing Obama, the Obama campaign would be giddy in being able to play the differences between Romney and McCain. On paper, McCain-Romney would be vastly superior to the Obama-Biden ticket, but Romney's expedient position changes will not play well with moderates and independents.
At this point, I think McCain's best choice is a female running mate, hopefully one with administrative and/or business experience; this would be a brilliant tactic to play against Obama's failure to nominate Hillary Clinton. Dick Morris has suggested Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R-TX), a former state treasurer and banker, and I'm inclined to agree. Other potential candidates: Elizabeth Dole (R-NC), whom has run the American Red Cross, is also a credible choice, and Meg Whitman, former eBay chairman and someone McCain specifically referenced during the Saddleback Civic Forum, would be an interesting choice if she has been vetted.
