Post #5445 J

 Shutdown Diary

The latest stats from WaPo:

In the last week, an average of 1.56 million doses per day were administered, a 10% increase  over the week before.

From CDC:

Well, the good news is vaccinations are up; I'm not seeing breakouts of new vs second dose (mRNA) vs. boosters. Maybe one can do it by tracking data from CDC weekly data and doing differentials. But doing differentials of supersets, e.., patients 5-above, 12-above, etc. it looks like about 3 million kids 5-11 have been vaccinated over the last 3 weeks or so and booster shots are doing well. So presumably those two categories are included in the 1.5 million doses per day, but not much improvement in full vaccinations. Nationally it's 59%, almost 71% for adults. You still see up to 17 points below average in red states, but I remember some states were in the 30's a few weeks back and they're now at least in the 40's. 

Obviously the double digit increase in cases  is worrisome, and an uptick in hospitalization is a trailing indicator. So are deaths but we haven't seen them increase over the past week. Many days over 100K in new cases, but the rolling average is about 92K daily..

It looks like OSHA has backed off, at least temporarily, its employer mandate on COVID-19 vaccines and/or masks/testing. I'm not sure of the specifics; I think the appeals court has not made a final ruling yet, and hence the Administration can't push for SCOTUS appeal. My understanding is a big issue is its use of emergency powers without public vetting procedures (a likely reflection of the nondelegation doctrine, i.e., Congress' statutory prerogative), and many, if not most, appealed usages of  emergency mandates have led to reversals.

Over the weekend I clipped a Ron Paul Liberty clip not featuring himself but two of his regular co-hosts. There's definitely an anti-vaxxer element with Ron Paul seeming just as obsessed about mandates as Tom Woods. I didn't catch the specifics of the claim but the implications were to the effect that breakthrough COVID-19 cases were rising disproportionately, snarky references to the vaccines not working very well, except to line the pockets of vaccine makers

I have already responding to some of these points in earlier posts and tweets. First, not all vaccines are sterilizing and waning effectiveness also affects natural immunity. Second, the Delta variant is highly infectious and the magnitude of infection can overwhelm a certain level of antibodies. Third, most breakthroughs are minor in scope, unlikely to require hospitalization or to result in death. Fourth, there's little data showing downstream propagation from breakthroughs. Almost 80% of adults are fully vaccinated, but of course in overall stats, even a lower likelihood can still make for a significant percentage of cases. The unvaxxed are keeping the disease alive and more importantly, making a nightmare mutation possible. The fact is the last stats I saw from August or September show less than a vaccinated person had less than a 1% chance of infection, and unvaccinated had 6 times more chance of being infected and 11 times of being hospitalized.

Other Notes

I really like a Hallmark Movies and Mysteries movie I think I identified the movie in an earlier journal post. The following is my writeup for family members and I'll add additional comments:

Hallmark Channel usually does romantic comedies; its sister channel, Hallmark Movies and Mysteries, has other types of movies, some which are more serious, have a touch of fantasy or other things (sometimes with a touch of romance like this one). I spend more time on the latter.

"One December Night" is a new cable movie, and there's a reason I want you to watch it (I'm sure it'll be in their rotation), and you'll know why as you watch it. I can't tell you without spoiling part of the plot.

Medford and Sullivan are a classic rock duo who have split up and not performed together in almost a decade. I'm sure everyone in the family [except the youngest] will immediately think of Simon and Garfunkel. Think of Sullivan like the Paul Simon character, the songwriter. I don't know how much you know about the Simon and Garfunkel breakup, but one story I read was Simon spent a month writing the classic "Bridge Over Troubled Water" (Art really sang the song solo. There were a lot of reasons behind the split, including Art's resentment of some early Simon solo gigs and dependency on Simon's songwriting. Simon had some insecurities about his height and looks, his singing voice, not to mention Art had won some acting gigs and Simon didn't. I think I read something to the effect like, "Write another Bridge, and I'll show up and sing it."

Both singers had successful solo careers and briefly collaborated for my favorite "My Little Town" and a remake of Cooke's 'Wonderful World' with James Taylor. (Oh, that is SO GOOD; if you don't remember, check it out on Youtube.  Art, of course, scored with "All I Know" and an incredible remake of "I Only Have Eyes For You". I was planning to sing it Art-like if I ever got married.

I have no doubt Simon and Garfunkel were set for life decades back. So there's not much parallel to Medford and Sullivan. Medford's son is his manager, and Sullivan's daughter works for a talent agency, trying to get a break for her phenomenal female singer client. The latter makes a deal to get her client an opening act act for a Medford/Sullivan reunion concert. Earlier said than done.

Sullivan is about one mortgage payment from foreclosure. Medford is barely scraping by in a solo career. Sullivan is embittered by a number of things, including losing rights to his own songs.

In particular, there's this one song "One December Night", not so much a Christmas song but a love song over meeting his (late?) wife. Sullivan has an understanding they would sing the song together, but then finds out Medford has cut the song solo.

There's a love/hate relationship going on between the duo's children.

So hopefully I haven't given away too much of the story, but I recommend it.

[The movie begins by showing "One December Night" shooting to the top of the pop charts  The implication is that it was their biggest signature song/hit.. Sometime after the duo's breakup, he lost rights to his song. After Medford breaks a promise not to cut a solo version or perform it without Sullivan, Sullivan cancels the concert. SPOILER ALERT:  Medford has developed an aggressively advancing health condition, and his coping mechanism is through work. Think Glen Campbell.]

Well Survivor Series has come and gone, the last PPV for the year. (They have a new one for New Year's. They did  a poor job promoting in. I didn't like the screwjob finish to the Flair/Lynch match. Most of it was predictable with Reigns winning the main event, RAW teams or champions going over, including Belair's last man standing fighting off 4 Smackdown women, and AJ protégé Omos winning  the battle royal.