I never understood Twitter analytics. Here are two post-election (Tuesday) tweets attracting nominal impressions:
The real message behind Youngkin's victory on public education is to get back to the fundamentals of education and stop using public schools as social engineering laboratories.
— raguillemette (@raguillemette) November 3, 2021
"Critical Race Theory"
Today's progressivism seeks to impose a softer version of Reconstruction hegemony. It's not hard to understand why someone might seek to reference a symbol of voluntary separation, free from Hamiltonian repression.
— raguillemette (@raguillemette) November 2, 2021
"Confederate"
I personally think these are among the best tweets I've ever published over 8 years on Twitter (the current account was created in July 2020; I retired my first account in protest after multiple suspensions.)
Tuesday's off-year election was intriguing for a number of reasons: not only was increasingly blue VA Gov.-elect Youngkin the first GOP statewide Republican candidate in more then a decade (granted, former Gov. McAuliffe had seen his once solid lead all but evaporate heading into the election, so, given the trend and momentum going into the election, Youngkin's slim victory wasn't a shock, but late returns from deep blue pockets from cities and DC suburbs melted an early-double digit lead), but Ciattarelli lost an unexpectedly close race against incumbent NJ Gov. Phil Murphy, a NJ truck driver upset a NJ state legislative leader, progressive attempts to defund/redefine the police failed, notably in the volatile aftermath of the George Floyd killing by police in the Twin Cities (MN), and multiple Texas state propositions carried, strengthening religious liberty rights and family/caregiver access rights to living-assisted facility residents, largely suspended earlier in the pandemic by the governor's executive order.
What, if any, lessons can be drawn here? Here are two partisan takes: Trump, who endorsed Youngkin, is trying to claim credit; progressive Dems are trying to blame intraparty squabbling over Biden big ticket agenda in thinly-controlled Congress.
There are certain parallels between Youngkin and Trump; they were novice politicians and former businessmen. I'm sure Trump's endorsement was a plus to winning the nomination, but it didn't help with the general election where Trump lost by 10 points. In fact, McAuliffe did everything he could to make the election a referendum on Trump. But Youngkin distanced himself from Trump, underwater approvals , did not rally with him. Youngkin largely won on the issue of public education, a peripheral issue for Trump, and won over soccer moms, largely not Trump supporters. We can argue whether critical race theory made a difference; progressives argued it was a strawman argument. But a clear problem was McAuliffe's dismissive/elitist attitude towards parental input/involvement on what their children were taught. I listened to Youngkin's victory speech and was put off by how Youngkin vowed to make education spending a high priority. I would have preferred more of a push in terms of school choice beyond a nominal number of charter schools.
To what extent are Tuesday's results generalizable to the midterms? In one sense, not much: education and policing are local, not federal issues. And I don't think things like Trump's attempt to extort the states and municipalities into opening schools using federal funding strings was helpful. For one thing, Trump didn't have the legal authority in legislation to act on his threat, and the Impoundment Control Act enables legislative review of POTUS' decisions to freeze or withhold fund for policy reasons (and cutting education dollars is not politically popular). Not to mention voters may not have agreed with Trump's putting their school funding or their kids' health at risk, and Trump was wielding a double-edged sword meaning his successor (Biden) could reverse his decisions.
The GOP needs to focus on empowerment of families as consumers and taxpayers; McAuliffe's elitist judgment that parents aren't competent to judge professional educators or unionized teachers reflects the self-serving interests of long-time Democrat constituencies (although even right-wingers will pay lip service to "overworked, underpaid, underappreciated" teachers). (I do think, however, they are more vulnerable like in the Chicago area where skyrocketing pension obligations has led to some of the highest property taxes in the US; consider how dissatisfied teachers demanded yet another $500M in tax increases on top of the highest property tax increase in history.) I'm not suggesting a war on teacher unions, but certainly we've seen some questionable demands during the COVID-19 crisis, and we've seen some other Dem paybacks in terms of prevailing wages, minority business set-asides, the Jones Act and other practices which are not consistent with taxpayer-friendly objectives.
I do think there are some important lessons for the GOP heading into the midterms:
- government "expertise" is in question, whether we are talking about the CDC's flip-flopping on facemask guidance, the government's failures in early COVID-19 testing, the Federal Reserve in preserving currency stability, governor edicts during the crisis (including Andrew Cuomo's decision to put the infected in vulnerable nursing homes), and countless other dubious, petty, Draconian economic shutdowns and restrictions on religious, economic and other liberties.
- Biden's leadership stumbles on the Afghanistan withdrawal, handling of the Southern border crisis, his overreach with the OSHA vaccine mandate, and his reckless tax-and-spend agenda are fair game. Morally hazardous unemployment insurance has slowed the economic recovery.
- The Republicans need new faces and fresh ideas. They need to do a better job distinguishing themselves; the Trump agenda was interventionist, domestically and internationally. "Tariff Man"'s policies not only hurt American middle- and lower-class consumers, but adversely affected exports abroad and Trump ended up redistributing tariff income to his farm state constituency. The Trump Administration added more to the national debt than both terms of George W. Bush. Trump punted on long overdue entitlement reform, as reserves for both Medicare and social security threaten to be exhausted within a dozen years with an expanding senior population, never mind that entitlements are the drivers for over two-thirds of federal spending. A prescription is beyond the scope of this post. but I suggest it includes a moratorium on new federal spending and regulation, a radical decentralization of federal spending and authority, a more sustainable downsizing of our military and commitments overseas, an end to activist monetary policy (with a renewed, solitary focus on currency stability), an eye to liberating restrictions on states, business and individuals, and a flatter, simpler taxation model based more on consumption than income.
The other point was the progressives wanting to blame the rebuke on Dem infighting in Congress, robbing Biden of timely victories on the infrastructure and multi-trillion Dem Wishlist budget reconciliation bill. This is a state of denial. Biden's approval is down despite a massive COVID-19 relief win. "Moderate" Democrats in purple or red states are aware that an incumbent POTUS' party usually loses seats in the midterms, meaning they are most at risk. They are well-aware that Obama lost a multi-dozen majority in the House in the 2010 election, notably following the ObamaCare vote, including Senate compromises infamously known as Gator-Aid, the Louisiana Purchase, and the Cornhusker Kickback. (Ironically, all 3 senators were eventually voted out of office.) The Dems hold razor-thin majorities in each chamber; I think the GOP has a harder task in the Senate, having to defend more seats, including multiple open seats in purple states (e.g., OH, NC and PA), although some Dem seats are vulnerable, including NH, NV, AZ, and GA. While the Dems figure new/expanded government programs in the 2 bills may be politically popular, many of these don't have short-term benefits and Biden is facing a sluggish economy with some of the highest inflation numbers in years, including at the gas pump. At least two of the latest RCP numbers show the GOP with a lead in the generic party ballot, and Biden's approval numbers are down to about 43, Trump-type numbers. New business taxes, while popular with the progressive base, may deter economic growth and investment, already having to compete against government debt. And that could adversely affect hiring and good-paying jobs.
