Analytics

Friday, June 18, 2021

Post #5197 J

 Shutdown Diary

The latest stats from Washpo:

In the past week in the U.S. ...
New daily reported cases fell 23.6% 
New daily reported deaths fell 28.1% 
Covid-related hospitalizations fell 10.5% 
Among reported tests, the positivity rate was 1.8%.
The number of tests reported fell 10.7% 
175.9 million people have received one or both doses of the vaccine in the U.S.
This includes more than 147.8 million people who have been fully vaccinated.
44.5% fully vaccinated, 53% at least partially, 55.2/65% of adults.. 1.3 M per day, up 17%/wk

Perhaps the biggest news in vaccine development comes from Novavax

First to Demonstrate Clinical Efficacy Against COVID-19 and Both UK and South Africa Variants...NVX-CoV2373 contains a full-length, prefusion spike protein made using Novavax’ recombinant nanoparticle technology and the company’s proprietary saponin-based Matrix-M™ adjuvant. The purified protein is encoded by the genetic sequence of the SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) protein and is produced in insect cells. It can neither cause COVID-19 nor can it replicate, is stable at 2°C to 8°C (refrigerated) and is shipped in a ready-to-use liquid formulation that permits distribution using existing vaccine supply chain channels.

 Novavax said today it will file for FDA approvals in the third quarter for its COVID-19 vaccine NVX-CoV2373, after it showed 90.4% overall efficacy, and 93% efficacy against the five most prevalent SARS-CoV-2 variants “of concern” and eight more variants “of interest,” in a Phase III trial. The vaccine demonstrated 100% protection against moderate and severe disease, based on 10 moderate cases and four severe cases being observed, all in the placebo group

The U.S. lifted the export ban on raw materials on June 4. Serum Institute of India (SII), the manufacturing partner for Novavax in India,   is yet to receive raw materials from the U.S. required to produce the Novavax Inc (NASDAQ: NVAX) vaccine despite diplomatic interventions by India, said an official aware of the development.The delay in receiving raw materials such as bioreactor bags and enzymes means that SII's launch of the Novavax vaccine, dubbed Covovax in India, will not likely happen before September, as planned initially. The company said raw material shortages have led to the delay in launching the vaccine.

A lot to unpack here: note the high effectiveness against contagious new variants and the modest refrigeration requirements; among other things, it might make for a great booster shot domestically. The second point I want to point attention is the deplorable Biden Administration to support recent attempts to undermine IP protections of vaccine makers, targeted by global shortages of vaccines. I've pointed out the issue wasn't pharmaceutical "greed" but global supply chain shortages. The fact that the US exacerbated issues with an export ban on raw materials didn't help.

The numbers are going on the right direction with daily cases trending in the low 5-figures, soon to be 4-figures. Biden's goal of 70% of adults vaccinated by July 4 seems unrealistic, particularly given underperformance in red states.

We are seeing the start of a return to normalcy with a number of NBA playoff teams running at full or near full capacity. WWE has now been promoting a return to live crowd TV tapings in multiple US cities starting in mid-July. One of my bellwethers is McDonald's; only about 15% dining in open (none to my knowledge locally)  but they are planning to reopen more comprehensively this summer; however note most franchises are not company-owned, and many of them are having trouble staffing up to enable dining-in, despite wage increases.

Life's Little Problems

One thing I can't stand is recurring purchases. particularly of more durable goods, like I've probably gone through half a dozen cellphone wallets. Another one is coffee makers, especially k-cup versions. Being ever thrifty, I've probably bought 3 of the economy Walmart models which sell for about $20. My siblings also let me inherit my late maternal uncle's big Keurig model, but I never got it to power on and ended up trashing it. My latest one is dying; earlier this week, I couldn't get it to drop more than an inch in the reservoir; I do have a more conventional drip model, but it's like, "Where are my filters and ground coffee?" So I go and buy a replacement--relocate and rinse out my old one; and suddenly it brews a full cup. This is like life is laughing at me. I think the old one is on its last legs.. If nothing else, I can bring it to my office...I've had issues of coffee splatter in the past bringing a cup to the office. Of course, I've bought my fair share of "leak proof" travel mugs as well. Quite a hassle for someone who drinks maybe 1 or 2 cups a day....

I may finally give up my Sam's Club membership. As a single guy, I've never used it for things like gallon jars of mayonnaise, and since I haven't had a full-size refrigerator for some time, I can't really buy much of anything requiring refrigerator or freezer space. There were staples on my list for occasional visits, like bananas, fresh berries, boneless leg of lamb, Kerrygold butter 1-lb tubs, rotisserie chicken, mulri-loaf packs of lower-carb breads and/or tortillas, jars of nuts, etc., not to mention filling up my gas tank economically (but with my hybrid, I  don't even fill up every trip now). There were items I couldn't get at Walmart's, but it's getting harder to find a good bargain. For example, my local Walmart often sells rotisserie chickens at Sam's Club price ($5) or better. I routinely see as good if not better prices on fruits or berries at local markets. I ended up throwing out one of my lower-carb loaves because I don't eat bread fast enough to stave off mold. My last trip I bought just over $100 of stuff, one of my lower totals in recent memory. I did find some things to buy, like a twin-pack of sriracha sauce (I haven't bought ketchup in years), but I've been able to buy it at local markets,''

And I don't know if anyone gets pestered the way I have with unsolicited junk calls from these ubiquitous car warranty plans. There's one of these vendors who calls me incessantly using different numbers--as if harassing me is going to make more willing to buy something I don't want. Now that Joe Namath isn't on my cable shilling Medicare advantage plans every 5 minutes, these warranty plans (who also shower me with junk mail) have become my new nemesis. 

Do We Really Need a New Federal Holiday?

This has been a pet peeve of mine. This has nothing to do with the fact that chattel slavery was an abomination, a paradox heresy against individual liberty, on which this nation was founded.

Just some reminders: the Civil War was not about slavery, despite propaganda otherwise. Four border slave states (KY, MO, MD, DE) remained in the Union.  The Confederacy emerged following a decade in which Senate parity was broken in favor of free states and Lincoln was elected without a Southern electoral vote. I'm not arguing that the many in the South didn't perceive slavery as important to their economy, but there were long-standing regional differences where they were at an increasing disadvantage in the central government (e.g., as faster-growing Northern states had more clout in the House of Representatives).  Tariffs/exports/protectionism had been a big difference, especially during the Jackson Presidency. The South felt protectionism in the North not only came at the expense of their cost of living, but their own exports (cotton, in particular) were subject to retaliatory tariffs, threatening sales, and the expenditure of these revenues politically favored, e.g., infrastructure projects in the more populated North.

It really wasn't so much that they lacked the political power, say, to block an emancipation amendment in the Senate. If anything, secession of the South made passage more likely, not to mention the South shared a long border which complicated any recapture of fugitive slaves. And although historians dispute its significance, the fact is the Confederacy put emancipation on the diplomatic front, hoping to win diplomatic relations with anti-slavery European nations, and General Lee had fought to win the promised emancipation for slaves who agreed to serve in the Confederate military. Plus, if you read Lincoln's first Inaugural Address, what he wouldn't abide wasn't slavery in the South, but loss of its lucrative tariff-collecting ports. In fact, he was willing to write perpetuity of Southern slavery into the Constitution if that's what it took to get the Southern states back into the Union. And let's point out out secession wasn't just a Southern construct; many abolitionists considered confederation with slave states to be morally contemptible. And there are a number of reasons to believe emancipation in the South was a dying institution and its collapse inevitable; for example, foreign consumers of cotton and other Southern commodities would have likely boycotted slave-produced goods, there was a competition between free and slave labor in the South, and taxpayers would have resented subsidizing the high costs of government in protecting the slave interests of the minority of slave-holding households.

The Emancipation Proclamation was more of a diplomatic and military tactic/gimmick. Lincoln had explicitly noted in his inaugural address he didn't have the constitutional authority to end slavery, short of an amendment, which was never ratified during his shortened lifespan. He dubiously relied on his authority as Commander-in-Chief in an unconstitutional war to undermine and destabilize the Confederate economy by encouraging slave rebellions while undermining Confederate attempts to win diplomatic recognition. 

So what does this have to do with Juneteenth? Texas had been part of the Confederacy and fell into Union hands by the end of the Confederacy (by May 1865) and this date in 1865.

As a libertarian, I abhor the abominable institution of chattel slavery as inconsistent with the natural right of liberty. I have no issue with celebrating its end; I have two principal objections--adding yet another federal holiday (as if civilians need yet another day off at taxpayer expense) and the fact that slavery ended with the 13th amendment.

 As someone who has worked as a federal contractor during much of the last 18 years. I can tell you many federal contractors got contacted late yesterday after Biden signed the Juneteenth bill into law. So today is the first federally observed holiday (closest workday to the holiday tomorrow) and we were basically told not to show up for work today and to charge our precious PTO (paid time-off) hours, like during government shutdowns. Maybe the contractor management will cover it next year, maybe give us our PTO day back (but I'm not holding my breath). I don't mind the long weekend, and to be honest, I was saving my PTO for a trip to Texas, deferred because of travel restrictions under the pandemic.