Shutdown Diary
The latest stats from Washpo:
I think the negative test positivity number has to be a typo. But it had been trending below 3% in the recent past, and I had been using 5% as my informal heuristic to test for a surge. More importantly, the aggregate case load has dipped well below 20K per day. the lowest rate over the past 15 months, since late March 2020.
The vaccination rate is worrisome, dropping to under a million per day; we have 42% fully vaccinated and 51.5% at least partially vaccinated, but at most we're down to the rate at 2% partially vaccinated or 1% fully vaccinated a week (not both). I believe every state has at least a third of its population partially vaccinated, but definitely red states (including WV) are laggards. I was somewhat curious about WV because I thought it was an early success story.
I found a couple of shopping list items unavailable at Lidl so I ended up making my first shopping trip to Walmart's since my local county rolled off its mandatory mask policy. I had decided to go without my mask (pulled down), but I have one in my car "just in case". Those of us maskless (presumably vaccinated) are still definitely in the minority but seem to be trending up. I was more nervous about Walmart, but they (unlike Lidl) did specifically have a sign at the entrance specifically noting the revised mask-optional policy. I didn't see an employee at the entrance presumably enforcing mask policy. Just a ballpark estimate, but maybe 20-33% of the shoppers were maskless.
Alex Tabarrok of Marginal Revolution continues to look at First Dose First, delayed second dosing, and fractional dosing. The second topic suggests a better immunological response to a longer than specified second dosing. The third topic looks at stretching vaccine supplies, possibly with reduced side effects without reducing protection; the protocols I've seen discuss full doses for the at risk population and lesser doses for other groups. I share Tabarrok's opinion that we could have seen infection rates decline earlier with a more decentralized distribution system and First Dose First.
Life's Little Problems
It has been been a while since I've broken in a new credit card. Now there are various innovations over recent years, including embedded chips and one-time numbers to guard against fraud. So I was somewhat annoyed my current rewards card still charged an annual fee and its reward incentive hadn't kept up with other plans; its credit limit really hadn't changed after years of on-time full payments (not that I've ever been one to run up my credit balances, but I like having the flexibility).
So I recently got my new card and called up to activate the card. What stumped me was the usual question to enter the card number. What the hell? No card number on the face of the card. I thought maybe it was under the activation sticker? Nope. Was it on the paperwork with the card? Nope. My activation call timed out. I finally checked the back of the card--and there it was.
I remember in my late 20's, down the home stretch of earning my PhD, thinking I was finally ending having to study for tests, that I would be the one testing others. That was hopelessly naïve. For example, I've lived in nearly a dozen different states since I earned my first driver's license, and I think just in Texas alone, I had to pass the written test 4 times for differing periods of residence. And even after you get the PhD, you still get evaluated even if it's not a formal test. You have to publish in peer-reviewed journals as a junior/untenured professor, and you have to earn tenure. (I never went up for tenure; my last appointment was on a limited-term visiting professor.) As a government contractor, I often have to pass a half dozen or more annual classes, not including various online IT classes.
So as I'm writing, I'm starting to work on the next extension of my Security+ certification. I've still got another 19 months or so on my current extension, but I like to be proactive.
Entertainment
Positiv.tv is an eclectic cable channel, a mix of classic movies (like Shane and Moby Dick), religious theme movies or documentaries (e.g., the genesis of traditional Christian hymns), and various inspirational-type movies. I've discussed some of my favorite cable type movies from several years back in previous posts. They do have a number of movies with tragic endings. Two of such movies on their rotation are:
- Andy's Rainbow. A troubled teenage girl has to do community service, where she meets Andy, a mentally-challenged young man who was orphaned in a tragic car accident. I don't want to give away the plot, but he ends up saving the young woman from a car accident explosion, getting critically injured in the process.
- Clancy. A runaway young girl, whose mother has an addiction problem and neglected her, encounters and befriends a grumpy homeless Gulf War vet. An evil local politician discovers the pair and wants to "save" the girl from the veteran to boost his reelection campaign. The "rescue" goes horribly wrong.
