Shutdown Diary
The latest statistics from Washpo
In the past week in the U.S. ...
New daily reported cases fell 21.8%
New daily reported deaths fell 11.6%
Covid-related hospitalizations fell 11.8% Read more
Among reported tests, the positivity rate was 3.5%.
The number of tests reported fell 19.4%
In the last week, an average of 2.09 million doses per day were administered, a less than 1% increase over the week before. National vaccination rates that peaked in mid-April at an average of 3.3 million doses per day have dropped in recent weeks to a rolling average close to 2 million per day. All adults have been eligible for vaccines since last month. Almost 17 million children, as young as 12, are now eligible for a coronavirus vaccine as well
Well, the first thing to note is that, for the first time in about 8 months we're averaging under 40K COVID-19 cases daily. Drops in cases, hospitalization, and testing (correlated with new diagnoses) are encouraging. Increases in the vaccinated will tend to dampen the spread, not to mention it is less likely for the virus to flourish with more time outdoors vs. poorly ventilated indoors where bioaerosols can concentrate. With up to 75% or more of the at-risk groups vaccinated, mortality should continue to decline, as shrinking younger, more robust health infected populations are less likely to develop serious complications, including hospitalization.
What's worrisome is the declining rate of vaccinations, even as eligibility has extended just before the teens. While the fully vaccinated have finally pushed just past a third, the percentage of at least partially vaccinated has been stuck in the upper 40's for some time. The daily rate is down about a third, less than 1% of the population getting a shot. It's no longer an issue of supply, the issue I faced earlier this year; in fact, some states are now accepting less than their quota. There are a number of reasons, including maybe 20-25% of the population in the vaccine-skeptic population. Anti-vaxxers have been circulating false rumors like the vaccinated are shedding vaccine or virus (not relevant to the mRNA Pfizer and Moderna vaccines). Of course, the largely overblown blood clot kerfuffle leading to a pause in J&J's vaccine was counterproductive. I haven't seen a good cross-break on Pfizer v Moderna v J&J shots administered, but the limited, possibly dated information I've seen suggests a plurality edge to Moderna; I know some federal installations are exclusively Moderna. Some states, notably Ohio, are trying interesting gimmicks like lotteries tied to new vaccinations. Even certain private sector companies like beer distributors are offering incentives like a free drink. But we really need to at least double numbers to reach herd immunity, and some sources are on the record saying we'll never get there.
The biggest news over the past week has been CDC releasing new liberalized mask-related guidelines. Basically except for things like crowded venues and public transmit, vaccinated people are able to do most things unmasked, especially outdoors. I was curious how, say, Maryland (my current state) would respond since public guidelines have to be easy to administer and there's no visible means to distinguish whether a person is vaccinated. And the short answer is they won't enforce outside mask wearing (although counties, like the city of Baltimore, are electing to continue such restrictions). I used to worry that they might stop some solitary people I've seen carrying groceries parallel to the road. For some time now I haven't been wearing masks unless going indoors (e.g., groceries or doctor visits).
Another topic I've recently tweeted about is the hot topic of COVID-vaccinated celebrities getting diagnosed with COVID (comedian Bill Maher and about 8 New York Yankees). There are some misconceptions about vaccines in general. You aren't guaranteed of never getting infected; I thought that was clear by mentioning the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are 90-odd % effective. In fact, as I've pointed out before, some infected people have gotten reinfected. The vaccines are more effective in lessening the risk of serious infections, e.g., requiring hospitalization.
Life's Little Problems
As more recent readers know, I had a Western Digital drive (USB-powered/connected) recently go dead (probably for powersupply/connection issues, not the drive itself). WD promised a replacement as a one-time accommodation because technically I filed just past their warranty period. I had to first ship the defective drive (at my expense). I still get sticker shock for delivery costs. I remember once going to UPS wanting to ship s box with a stuffy animal for a grand-niece and I got a cost estimate of $25--for the cheapest rate, more than the value of the item in question. I think the box is still in my car; next time I'll just send my gift via Amazon Prime. WD didn't offer to pay postage; even though the box's weight including drive was negligible, the USPS charged $15. At least it came with a tracking number and minimal insurance.. So I know WD got the item a couple of days back. No acknowledgment yet. That may not be unusual with RMA's, but I've sent a follow-up. [A late update: they wrote it takes about a week to process an RMA.]
One item I thought of including in the prior section was the annoyance in losing one of the wireless airbuds in my car while adjusting my facemask. It's not lost but it's a hassle of looking for it around the car seat.
I'm actually fairly progressive in terms of energy conservation. My hybrid tells me I'm averaging about 58 mpg since my last car maintenance. I've not had to buy gas since the recent hacking incident largely resulting in fuel shortages along the East Coast. When I fill up, I usually see a 500 mile driving range and since I'm currently working remotely, I'm not driving that much--just local errands. I think over the past year, the longest drivees I've done is getting my vaccine shots in Howard County about an hour's drive away in traffic. I'll hit the 2-year anniversary of my car in the middle of summer, and I doubt I'll clear 3000 miles; the little old lady from Pasadena may have put more miles on her Cadillac.
According to my local utility, I've been the most efficient of my neighbors for some time--and I don't by a narrow edge but like up to 1/3 less than the next most efficient neighbor. Not sure why. wider temperature settings less usage of the stove, plus I haven't had a full size refrigerator in over a year?
Investments for my retirement account have driven me crazy; when the market melted down over a year ago, I ended up losing over a third of my account value, selling at the worst time and missing the rebound. And, to be honest, the market recently has been a little too richly valued for my tastes. I started tiptoeing back into the market, taking 4 minor positions, and let's just say over the past week, the mini-correction took out 3 of those, I'm very picky on my investments; I've never paid much attention to fad investments like cannabis stocks or digital currencies. Over the years I've multiplied my seed professor 403B assets (no employer match) multiple times; I've had some timely buys and sells in the biotech and energy sectors (not recently). I look at both valuation and technical analyses. It's discouraging to see stocks I've just sold rally back 2 or 3%. If I were paranoid, I might think the algorithms read my capitulations as a marker for a turnaround. But I can't afford anotherr 30-40% haircut. The conventional wisdom is with low interest rates, money will tilt to stock investments, and the Fed's willingness to bid up prices informally puts a cap on interest rates/bolsters bond prices. But everybody is keeping an eye on interest rates, because if inflation rears its head unduly/out of control, the Fed might need to defend the dollar by raising interest rates (a boost, say, to the banking and energy industries). But for those companies dependent on cheap credit, rising interest rates mean higher expenses and lower profits, not to mention bonds yielding higher interest become more attractive. Of course, the Fed isn't so good at timing as to know when it raises interest a bit too high, triggering a recession, leading to stock corrections and bond gain as the market anticipates the Fed being forced to combat a recession with rate cuts. Note I'm speaking broadly here; for example, some bonds, like Trump bonds for his casinos, will get hammered if the companies can't afford their interest expenses.
We've seen a lot of tech companies beat earnings just to drop: "buy the rumor, sell the news". How much of the COVID recovery is already baked into prices? I'm not sure. I'm not a millionaire, and I don't write an investment blog. Invest at your risk. It may be my buying and selling are contrarian signals. If so, I wish you luck.
Entertainment
WWE has its first post-Wrestlemenia PPV Sunday. Probably the easiest call is the Mysterio father-son team going over heel champs Ziggler-Roode. The theory is WWE wants the tag belts on the heel Uso Bothers, and you usually don't see heels battle heels (who do you cheer for?)
I don't see Cesaro going over Universal Champ Reigns. It is possible they'll have McIntyre regain his championship from WWE Champ Lashley. How do they do it without weakening Lashley? They could have McIntyre pin Strowman, setting up a rubber match at Summer Slam. But I keep waiting for them to get Lesnar in the feud. So they could have Lashley retain the belt by Lesnar interfering in the match, setting up Lashley and Lesnar at Summer Slam.
As for the ladies' titles, I don't see Ripley or Belair losing;the only question to me is when Sasha returns for her rematch and whether post-pregnant Becky Lynch returns. I think, though, they would need to turn Asuka return (green-mist Asuka?) to set the stage for a Lynch/Asuka match for the title Lynch never lost.
I continue watching primarily PosiTV on cable. Hallmark has been doing dated comedy marathons--not of Cheers, Frasier, or I Love Lucy, but shows like Reba, The Golden Girls, and Last Man Standing. Oddly enough, they haven't tried to cut their own sitcoms or even reprise series (remember the Beaver's return as an adult or Peacock's revival of Punky Brewster?)
