Shutdown Diary
I haven't flown since the start of the pandemic, but a recent American Airlines email got me to wonder if something had changed for domestic flights. A brief Google search took me to the Denver airport featuring COVID-19 testing in roughly the $100-200 range, which rapid results testing in the latter range. I believe there are some home testing (saliva sampling) kits which may be accepted. As far as I can tell, mandatory testing is mostly in play for international flights. And apparently you can qualify for expedited security if you can document recent negative test results, although it seems part of the regimen includes a temperature check. But for now, most domestic travel is by the honor system, e.g., voluntary quarantine after trqvel or completing symptom checklists. Obviously some people lie, like that United passenger to LA who fell ill during the flight and died of COVID-19 complications.
In discussing the latest weekly statistics below: I note that the positivity rate has fallen below 5%. (I don't know if they've been tracking it, but I've been closely following it over the past few journal posts.) I'm not saying 5% is a magic number, but it's been a baseline I've been informally using to judge the various waves of the pandemic. The improving hospital utilization rates are definitely a step in the right direction, given full/over capacity would imply a risk of higher mortality.
So how do we explain the declines of the current wave, which seems obviously has peaked? Well, obviously it's not vaccination because only small percentage of vaccinated people (although no doubt it's a welcome development towards the criterion of herd immunity, as in the recent emergency waiver for a third vaccine FDA emergency approval for Johnson & Johnson's vaccine, although Oxford/AstraZeneca's vaccine is still stuck at the FDA, yet approved elsewhere (notably Europe).) And it's not a miracle due to the familiar regimen of masks, social distancing and personal hygiene; let me be clear: these are good practical steps that can mitigate the risks of infection. The issue I have has to do with unrealistic expectations. But if their implementation (up to 85% or so in some studies I've seen) didn't prevent the second or third waves, they certainly can't be attributed for falling rates. At best, they might mitigate acceleration and peak of the wave.
I'm not an epidemiologist. But here are some some insights: While certainly hospitals have learned much in treating COVID-19, recent lower mortality may have more to do with proportionately higher infections among younger/lower-risk people and improved protection of older/higher-risk individuals. Sometimes viruses can respond to changing weather conditions like temperature and humidity. For instance, in cold weather people spend more time indoors where shed microbes, not filtered, can accumulate more densely and put others at increased risk for infection. Acquired or natural immunity and a variation of herd immunity may also be at play. The virus may never truly go away and may mutate, and we don't know the nature and extent of any acquired immunity (although reinfection, which can happen, is relatively uncommon for COVID-19 recovered victims, from the studies to date).
The latest stats from WashPo:
Potpourri
It's amusing how even an MIS PhD has to put up with life's little problems in computing. For example, I opened up my email software which, recently updated, apparently had the unintended effect of wiping our of my profile (it didn't show any email or a single email account). Now of course, I could manually reconfigure my profile (it didn't lose my email folders, which are stored separately) with a few minutes of busy work, but as familiar readers know, the DBA in me maintains backups; I copied and pasted backup profile folder files, and presto, the email client software was soon back to normal.
But we are now in an era of disposable computers. I have a small chromebook (think of it as a cloud-based computer) which I use occasionally for working, e.g., on my blog. I haven't owned it long--maybe a year or two back, only to find Google left me a nasty little surprise note after its latest update of the operating system, that this would be its last OS update of my chromebook. The "solution"? Buy a new model. Oh, I don't think so. I did an Internet search and there seems to be a hardware/software workaround, but to be honest it may be functional for some time with the current setup.
But I had bought an inexpensive Lenovo desktop about 9 years back, more as a backup PC to my HP notebook whose hard drive was on its last legs. I had mover helpers with my move to WV, where I had rented a furnished apartment, so I had most of my stuff put in storage, and my work schedule made it so I couldn't be there for the unloading of the truck. As a former professor I had like 40 book boxes. I had no idea where they put the desktop, and I didn't want to spend hours reorganizing my storage unit to find it. Long story short, on my next move (to SC) I made sure the movers put it into my apartment. And whether it was the cold storage room in WV, it was dead for all practical purposes. So I bought another laptop as a backup. As some point, I coaxed the Lenovo back to life.
I've continued using it on and off as a backup (most recently, playing the "White Christmas" DVD). I had just updated Windows patching et al. recently, only to find out a few days ago it wasn't powering up. Not sure why; maybe the power supply, power cord, a broken power switch, the port interface, whatever. I may tinker with it as time permits. But how much good money to throw after bad in getting an old PC repaired,
It turns out you can buy a new Dell, with 8 GM RAM, 1 TB of storage, speedy CPU, etc., for under $400, plus sales tax. The only things you need to buy are a monitor and speakers, and the ones I had bought for the Lenovo worked just fine. I think my first PC clone I bought while at UWM cost me around $2800, and its functionality is just a fraction of the Dell's capabilities. In fact, I wrote this whole segment on the Dell.
Well, my readership on Twitter and the blog are at months' lows. The blog will likely be a third below last month's pageviews. Of course, February is the shortest month, but part of it is lower output. I haven't been as inspired; in part, Trump's tweets are no longer there to stir people up.
I guess I don't make an impression on a lot of people. I recently scheduled an 18-month service appointment on my new(er) car, and I was getting lots of text and email reminders about my appointment. Fortunately they were open on Presidents' Day. Everything went okay, but they reset my display, so I'm having to go to the owner's guide to figure how to revert it (right now the odometer only shows when I turn the ignition off). They're surprised by my low mileage, but, dude, there's a pandemic, I telework, and I barely drive for groceries, medical appointments, and (say) occasional trips to the barber shop. So anyway, one or 2 days later, I get more texts and emails from the dealership: "We're sorry you missed your appointment; would you like to reschedule?" Dude, you serviced my car; how do you not remember? You gave me paperwork and everything? Apparently I didn't make a good impression or any impression...
Entertainment
Well, I'm on no one's key demographic when it comes to TV, but a couple of nationally telecast series are grabbing my attention. No, not American Idol, nearly a generation after its debut on Fox; I haven't watched since the Fox cancellation and its resurrection on ABC, and as I've tweeted, I'm not happy that they are exploiting the troubled teen Claudia Conway, daughter of famously politically split parents, her mother, the campaign manager during Trump's first election, and Never Teumper father.
"Mr. Mayor" I find probably the best new comedy series in years, as Ted Danson, former Cheers lead womanizing bar owner, now plays the accidental mayor of Los Angeles with his headstrong teen daughter, Holly Hunter as his politically-savvy (a little too full of herself) deputy Arpi, and the rest of the cast. Whether it's a spoof of ubiquitous sexual harassment training, the mayor preparing to throw out the ceremonial first pitch of the baseball game, Food Truck day, etc., it has avoided polarizing political preaching and gently pokes fun at politicians. Great cast. Holly as Arpi shines; she is ultra-competitive, and this episode saw her repeatedly losing to her colleagues in various games/contexts, seriously messing with her head. As long as the deft writing continues, I'll be watching.
The new CW series "Superman and Lois" (see the premiere episode here) is an intriguing twist on the innumerable TV series and movies; Clark Kent has married his love interest Lois Lane (who knows he's Superman) and they are middle-aged parents to teenage twin sons, one who has inherited some of his powers. I don't want to give away the whole plot, but Clark comes out of the phone booth, so to speak, to his unsuspecting sons who think of him as a recently laid-off journalist.
In WWE the most interesting development was the Miz cashing in his reinstated Money in the Bank championship contract after McIntyre's grueling defense of his WWE championship belt at Elimination Chamber and Bobby Lashley's brutal post-match attack. The booking is curious because heel Miz is now the target of heel Lashley. I don't see Miz surviving their title clash next Monday. Lashley winning the belt sets up a dream match with Lesnar. I could see WWE doing a triple threat match (with McIntyre and Miz) after Lashley wins the belt with Lesnar confronting Lashley during/after the match.
Edge will confront Reigns, which was obvious given Edge's' babyface status. As for the female titles, somewhat muddled. they had booked Charlotte Flair's return to pair with former rival/current RAW champ Asuka to briefly take the women's tag titles. Now this sets up the formula storyline of tag team split-ups, in this context, Flair challenging Asuka for her RAW title. Deja vu? Yes. Flair ended Asuka's infamous win streak in a past Wrestlemania. It also looks like face Bianca meeting face Sasha Banks.I was hoping for a return of new mother Becky Lynch and/or Ronda Rousey.
